Changing Ecosystems

• Northern Forests and Tundra

• Freshwater Systems

• Marine Biodiversity and Sustainability

• Shifting Species

• Stewardship

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Northern Forests and Tundra

Above ground biomass changes in the mountain birch forests and mountain heaths of Finnmarksvidda, northern Norway, in the period 1957-2006
H. Tømmervik et al. Forest Ecology and Management (2009) 257(1):244-257. Using vegetation maps based on aerial photographs and satellite images from 7 years in combination with statistical data and ground estimation data of biomass in the period 1957-2006, the authors were able to assess the transitions among mountain heaths and different types of forest, the displacement of the altitudinal forest line, and hence the change in biomass.

Alaska Geobotany Center Library
The Alaska Geobotany Center (AGC) is dedicated to understanding northern ecosystems through ecological studies of landscape patterns and changes.

Alaska the 'poster state' for climate concerns
E. Weise. USA Today (updated 5/31/06). Alaska is important in measuring the effect of global warming on the USA because what happens here soon will be felt in the Lower 48 states.

Arctic alpine vegetation change over 20 years
S.D. Wilson, C. Nilsson. Global Change Biology (2009) 15:1676-1684. Recent arctic warming experiments have recorded significant vegetation responses, typically an increase in shrub cover and a loss of species richness. The authors report similar changes in vegetation along an arctic mountainside in northern Sweden over 20 years.

Arctic biodiversity trends 2010: Selected indicators of change
Report by CAFF International Secretariat, Akureyri, Iceland, May 2010. In 2008, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) passed a resolution expressing "extreme concern" over the impacts of climate change on Arctic indigenous peoples, other communities, and biodiversity. It highlighted the potentially significant consequences of changes in the Arctic. Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010: Selected Indicators of Change provides evidence that some of those anticipated impacts on Arctic biodiversity are already occurring. (PDF 18.57 MB)

Arctic climate change with a 2°C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change
J.O. Kaplan, M. New. Climatic Change (2006) 79:213-241. A number of nations, organizations, and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2°C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2°C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High-latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century.

Arctic ecology: Tundra's burning
J. Qiu, Nature News, September 2, 2009. Just as climate change may fuel fires, fires may accelerate climate change. Vast areas of tundra store about 14% of the world's soil carbon at the surface alone. Fires could release a large amount of that, either directly through combustion or indirectly by modifying the tundra ecosystem.

Arctic ecosystems
NPR's "All Things Considered," August 30, 2000. Science correspondent Richard Harris reports that scientists have been surprised by a rapid change in the Arctic tundra. When the Arctic air warmed up in the 1980s, this delicate ecosystem started venting large quantities of carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere, potentially adding to global climate change. But a study in the journal Nature finds that Arctic plant life has adapted to the changing climate and is helping soak up some carbon dioxide.

Arctic greening linked to retreating sea ice
Online article from University of Alaska Fairbanks' International Polar Year website.

Arctic permafrost thaw will boost carbon emissions
E. Chung, CBC News, August 15, 2011. The Arctic will switch from being a carbon sink to a carbon source by the end of this century as the permafrost thaws and emits greenhouse gases, a new study suggests.

Arctic plants can stand the heat
P. Ball, Nature News, August 31, 2000. Walter Oechel of San Diego State University, California, has spent many years studying the interactions between climate and the processes of growth and decay in ecosystems of the Arctic regions. He and his colleagues have now found that, in just a few decades, these important natural systems can partly absorb and offset the effect of the changes in global climate.

Arctic soils retain more carbon
A. Hartmann. Earth (2008). According to a new study, past estimates of organic carbon concentrations in Arctic soils are too low, which has some scientists worried about vast amounts of carbon being released as temperatures warm.

Arctic trees will make things warmer
A. Witze, Nature News, December 15, 2009. Researchers have identified a climate feedback effect suggesting that, as vegetation creeps northward, it will accelerate warming trends already in place.

Arctic tundra and polar desert ecosystems
Chapter 7 (pages 243-352) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Forest is very likely to replace a significant proportion of the tundra, and this will have a great effect on the composition of species. Displacement of tundra by forest will lead to a decrease in albedo, which will increase the positive feedback to the climate system. (PDF 3.61 MB)

Arctic tundra is being lost as far north quickly warms
B. Sherwonit. Yale Environment 360 (2010). The treeless ecosystem of mosses, lichens, and berry plants is giving way to shrub land and boreal forest. As scientists study the transformation, they are discovering that major warming-related events, including fires and the collapse of slopes due to melting permafrost, are leading to the loss of tundra in the Arctic.

As Arctic temperatures rise, tundra fires increase
ScienceDaily, November 18, 2010. In September 2007, the Anaktuvuk River Fire burned more than 1,000 square kilometers of tundra on Alaska's North Slope, doubling the area burned in that region since record keeping began in 1950. Models built on 60 years of climate and fire data found that even moderate increases in warm-season temperatures in the region dramatically increase the likelihood of such fires.

Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar Arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling
S. Sitch et al. Ecological Applications (2007) 17(1):213-234. This paper reviews the current status of using remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches to assess the contemporary and future circumpolar carbon balance of Arctic tundra, including the exchange of both carbon dioxide and methane with the atmosphere.

Blowing in the wind: Arctic plants move fast as climate changes
D. Biello. Scientific American online edition, June 14, 2007. Arctic plants have retreated and advanced in their colonization of fertile regions with great speed and over vast distances as the climate changes.

Carbon balance of Arctic tundra under increased snow cover mediated by a plant pathogen
J. Olofsson et al. Nature Climate Change (2011) 1:220-223. The authors show that, although plant growth was favored by the insulating effects of increased snow cover in experimental plots in Sweden, plant biomass decreased over a seven-year study. The decline in biomass was caused by an outbreak of a host-specific parasitic fungus, Arwidssonia empetri, which killed the majority of the shoots of the dominant plant species, Empetrum hermaphroditum, after six years of increased snow cover.

Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire
M.C. Mack et al. Nature (2011) 475:489-492. Arctic tundra soils store large amounts of carbon in organic soil layers hundreds to thousands of years old that insulate, and in some cases maintain, permafrost soils. Fire has been largely absent from most of this biome since the early Holocene epoch, but its frequency and extent are increasing, probably in response to climate warming. Here, the authors studied the effects of the Anaktuvuk River fire of 2007. Listen to clips of interviews with two of the authors that aired on APRN's "Alaska News Nightly" August 2, 2011. Read more about the study on NPR's news blog from July 28, 2011. Finally, read a related article by BBC environmental correspondent Richard Black.

Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect
A.L. Swann et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010) 107(4):1295-1300. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high latitudes, but the authors suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea ice.

Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift
P.S.A. Beck et al. Ecology Letters (2011) 14(4):373-379. The authors evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska.

Changes in high Arctic tundra plant reproduction in response to long-term experimental warming
R.A. Klady et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(4):1611-1624. The authors provide new information on changes in tundra plant sexual reproduction in response to long-term (12 years) experimental warming in the High Arctic.

Changes in vegetation determine how animals migrate
Science Daily, May 23, 2011. The predictability and scale of seasonal changes in a habitat help determine the distance migratory species move and whether the animals always travel together to the same place or independently to different locations.

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: Implications for climate feedbacks
E.S. Euskirchen et al. Ecological Applications (2009) 19(4):1022-1043. This study examines potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tendra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska for the years 2003-2010.

The changing Arctic landscape
K.D. Tape. University of Alaska Press, 2010. Historic photographs are paired with modern photographs of the same location. Scientific data and personal accounts accompany the visuals to discuss the impact of climate change on Arctic landscapes.

Circumpolar Arctic tundra vegetation change is linked to sea ice decline
U.S. Bhatt et al. Earth Interactions (2010) 14(8):1-20. The authors use a newly available Arctic Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset (a measure of vegetation photosynthetic capacity) to document coherent temporal relationships between near-coastal sea ice, summer tundra land surface temperatures, and vegetation productivity.

Climate change: Effects on the ecological basis for reindeer husbandry in Sweden
J. Moen. Ambio (2008) 37(4):304-311. This paper examines potential effects of predicted climate changes on the forage conditions during both summer and winter for semidomesticated reindeer in Sweden. Positive effects in summer ranges include higher plant productivity and a longer growing season, while negative effects include increased insect harassment.

Climate change: Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic
M. Sturm et al. Nature (2002) 411:546-547. The authors present evidence for a widespread increase in shrub abundance over more than 320 square kilometers of Arctic landscape during the past 50 years, based on a comparison of historic and modern aerial photographs.

Climate change and caribou: Effects of summer weather on forage
E.A. Lenart et al. Canadian Journal of Zoology (2002) 80(4):664-678. Climate variation and subsequent effects on forage plants have the potential to influence the population dynamics of caribou through effects on their food supply.

Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone
G.M. MacDonald et al. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2008) 363(1501):2283-2299. The Russian treeline is a dynamic ecotone typified by steep gradients in summer temperature and regionally variable gradients in albedo and heat flux. The location of the treeline is largely controlled by summer temperatures and growing season length. Temperatures have responded strongly to twentieth-century global warming and will display a magnified response to future warming.

Climate change, biodiversity conservation and protected area planning in Canada
C.J. Lemieux, D.J. Scott. Canadian Geographer (2005) 49(4):384-397. Vegetation-modeling results project that 37-48 percent of Canada's protected areas could experience a change in terrestrial biome type under doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide conditions.

Climate change disequilibrium of boreal permafrost peatlands caused by local processes
P. Camill, J.S. Clark. The American Naturalist (1998) 151(3):207-222. Boreal forest and tundra are the biomes expected to experience the greatest warming during the course of the next century. The transient responses of boreal peatlands to climate change could be more complex than a simple large release of carbon and rapid migrations of vegetation and permafrost.

Climate change forces early spring in Alberta, Canada
Science Daily, July 7, 2011. A University of Alberta study shows that climate change over the past 70 years has pushed some of the province's native wildflowers and trees into earlier blooming times, making them more vulnerable to damaging frosts and, ultimately, threatening reproduction.

Climate change impacts on forest fire potential in boreal conditions in Finland
A. Kilpeläinen et al. Climatic Change (2010) 103(3-4):383-398. According to this study, the forest fire potential will have increased by the end of this century as a result of increased evaporative demand, which will increase more than the rise in precipitation, especially in southern Finland.

Climate change increases the risk of ozone damage to plants, Swedish research finds
ScienceDaily, June 30, 2011. Ground-level ozone is an air pollutant that harms humans and plants. Both climate and weather play a major role in ozone damage to plants. Researchers at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, have now shown that climate change has the potential to significantly increase the risk of ozone damage to plants in northern and central Europe by the end of this century.

Climate change on the Kenai Peninsula
Lecture #14 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented November 30, 2010, by Ed Berg, PhD, Kenai National Wildlife Refuge.

Climate change tipping points for populations, not just species: Survival, reproduction of thousands of Arctic and alpine plants measured
ScienceDaily, October 21, 2010. As Earth's climate warms, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges away from the equator or to higher elevations.

Climate science: Patchy peat
T.R. Christensen. Nature Geoscience (2009) 2(3):163-164. Tundra is a fascinating example of a dynamic and sensitive ecosystem that interacts with, and responds very sensitively to, changes in climate. This cold, treeless environment, where low temperatures limit the growth of most plants, is a highly significant component of the global climate system.

Climate science: Snug shrubs
A. Thompson. Nature Geoscience (2007) doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.45. Shrub encroachment into the Arctic tundra could cause early snowmelts and warmer springtime temperatures.

A comparison of multi-spectral, multi-angular, and multi-temporal remote sensing datasets for fractional shrub canopy mapping in Arctic Alaska
D.J. Selkowitz. Remote Sensing of Environment (2010) 114(7):1338-1352. Shrub cover appears to be increasing across many areas of the Arctic tundra biome, and increasing shrub cover in the Arctic has the potential to significantly impact global carbon budgets and the global climate system.

Comprehensive conservation planning to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services in Canadian boreal regions under a warming climate and increasing exploitation
D.W. Schindler, P.G. Lee. Biological Conservation (2010) 143(7):1571-1586. Boreal regions contain more than half of the carbon in forested regions of the world and over 60% of the world's surface freshwater. Carbon storage and the flood control and water filtration provided by freshwaters and wetlands have recently been identified as the most important ecosystem services provided by boreal regions. Climate warming, via its effect on permafrost melting, insect damage, and forest fire, threatens to trigger large positive carbon feedbacks that may enhance the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, further amplifying climate warming.

Connecting landscapes into the future: A regional strategic habitat conservation climate change project
Lecture #3 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented April 22, 2009, by Karen Murphy, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (R7) Regional Fire Ecologist, Division of Refuges.

Conservation value of the North American boreal forest from an ethnobotanical perspective
A. Karst, report commissioned by the Canadian Boreal Initiative, the David Suzuki Foundation, and the Boreal Songbird Initiative, 2010. The traditional territories of hundreds of Aboriginal communities are within the Canadian Boreal region. The Boreal has significant ethnobotanical importance to indigenous people from this region, and their connections to this landscape are both utilitarian and sacred. Boreal plants currently face widespread human-induced pressures including habitat loss and climate change.

Cryosphere: Permafrost protection
A. Newton. Nature Geoscience (2007) doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.9. Peat layers and Arctic forests may insulate permafrost from rising air temperatures.

Current State & Trends Assessment: Polar Systems, Chapter 25: Polar Systems by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 
Because of polar amplification of climate change, the ecological impacts of warming are evident earliest and most clearly at high latitudes. In a region of near-pristine wilderness, relationships between ecosystems, species, and environment are more clearly defined than in populated regions where human influences can mask these relationships. This chapter emphasizes the ecological processes that most directly influence human well-being within and outside polar regions. (PDF 994 KB)

Decrease of lichens in Arctic ecosystems: The role of wildfire, caribou, reindeer, competition and climate in north-western Alaska
K. Joly et al. Polar Research (2009) 28(3):433-442. Lichens constitute the primary winter forage for large, migratory caribou and reindeer herds, which in turn are a critical subsistence resource for rural residents in Alaska.

Decreased DOC concentrations in soil water in forested areas in southern Sweden during 1987-2008
S. Löfgrena, T. Zetterberg. Science of the Total Environment (2011) 409(10):1916-1926. During the last two decades, there is a common trend of increasing concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in streams and lakes in Europe, Canada, and the US. However, long-term soil water data from Sweden and Norway indicate that there are either decreasing or indifferent DOC concentrations. In this study, the authors test the acidification recovery hypothesis on long-term soil water data (25 and 50 cm soil depth) from 68 forest covered sites in southern Sweden, showing clear signs of recovery from acidification.

Deepened snow alters soil microbial nutrient limitations in Arctic birch hummock tundra
K.M. Buckeridge, P. Grogan. Applied Soil Ecology (2008) 39(2):210-222. Microbial activity in the long Arctic cold season is low but cumulatively important. In particular, the size of the microbial biomass and soil solution nutrient pool at the end of winter may control the quantity of nutrients available to plants in the following spring. Increasingly severe soluble carbon (C) shortages may be exacerbated by the warmer temperatures and increased winter precipitation that are consistently predicted for a large part of the low Arctic.

Detecting changes in Arctic tundra plant communities in response to warming over decadal time scales
H.E. Epstein et al. Global Change Biology (2004) 10:1325-1334. Field data coupled with ArcVeg simulations of climate change scenarios indicate that some changes in plant community composition may be detectable within two decades following the onset of warming, and shrubs and mosses might be the key indicators of community change.

Digital photograph analysis for measuring percent plant cover in the Arctic
Z. Chen et al. Arctic (2010) 63(3):315-326. Long-term satellite remote sensing data, when properly calibrated and validated against ground monitoring, could provide valuable data sets for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems, wildlife, and other important aspects of life in the Arctic. In this paper, the authors report an adapted method for quantifying percent plant cover based on plot digital photograph classification (PDPC).

Does climate change influence the availability and quality of reindeer forage plants?
M. Turunen et al. Polar Biology (2009) 32(6)813-832. The northward and upward movement of the tree line and gradual replacement of lichens with vascular plants associated with increasing temperatures and nutrient availability may change the reindeer pastures in Northern Fennoscandia. The productivity of reindeer forage will most probably increase, but their protein (nitrogen) concentrations may decrease because of higher temperatures and CO2 concentration.

Does earlier snowmelt lead to greater CO2 sequestration in two low Arctic tundra ecosystems?
E.R. Humphreys, P.M. Lafleur. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047339. Some studies have reported that spring warming and earlier snowmelt leads to increased CO2 sequestration in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. The authors measured tundra-atmosphere CO2 exchange via eddy covariance at two low Arctic sites (mixed upland tundra and sedge fen) in central Canada over multiple snow-free periods to assess this hypothesis.

Drowned tundra emits more carbon
A. Witze, Nature News, August 4, 2009. If the tundra becomes increasingly warm and wet, which is anticipated as global temperatures rise, it might emit more carbon than expected.

Dynamics of the larch taiga–permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change
N. Zhang et al. Environmental Research Letters (2011) 6(2):024003. Larch taiga, also known as Siberian boreal forest, plays an important role in global and regional water-energy-carbon (WEC) cycles and in the climate system. This study suggests that future global warming could drastically alter the larch-dominated taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia, with associated changes of WEC processes and feedback to climate.

Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change
E. Post et al. Science (2009) 325(5946):1355-1358. Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity.

Ecological impacts of climate change
National Academy of Sciences, 2009. This booklet is based on the report Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2008), by the Committee on Ecological Impacts of Climate Change. (PDF 8.14 MB)

Ecoregion: Polar/subpolar
This fact sheet published by the U.S. Global Change Research Program identifies unique characteristics of the polar and subpolar regions that may be affected by climate change. (PDF 822 KB)

Ecosystem carbon storage in arctic tundra reduced by long-term nutrient fertilization
M.C. Mack et al. Nature (2004) 431:440-443. One-third of the global soil carbon pool is stored in northern latitudes, so there is considerable interest in understanding how the carbon balance of northern ecosystems will respond to climate warming. This study suggests that projected release of soil nutrients associated with high-latitude warming may further amplify carbon release from soils, causing a net loss of ecosystem carbon and a positive feedback to climate warming.

Ecosystem feedbacks and cascade processes: Understanding their role in the responses of Arctic and alpine ecosystems to environmental change
P.A. Wookey et al. Global Change Biology (2009) 15:1153-1172. Global environmental change, related to climate change and the deposition of airborne N-containing contaminants, has already resulted in shifts in plant community composition among plant functional types in Arctic and temperate alpine regions.

Ecosystems and global climate change: A review of potential impacts on U.S. terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity
Report prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, December 2000. This is the fifth in a series of Pew Center reports examining the potential impacts of climate change on the U.S. environment. It details the very real possibility that warming over this century will jeopardize the integrity of many of the terrestrial ecosystems on which we depend. (PDF 728 KB)

Effect of climate change on flux of N and C: Air-land-freshwater-marine links: Synthesis
A.O. Stuanes et al. Ambio (2008) 37(1):2-8. Projected climate change might increase the deposition of nitrogen by about 10% to seminatural ecosystems in southern Norway.

The effect of an early-season short-term heat pulse on plant recruitment in the Arctic
B.J. Graae et al. Polar Biology (2009) 32(8):1117-1126. Climate change will cause large-scale plant migration. Seedling recruitment constitutes a bottleneck in the migration process but is itself climate-dependent. The authors tested the effect of warming on early establishment of three Arctic pioneer species.

The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of Interior Alaska: Implications for post-thaw carbon loss
J.A. O'Donnell et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(3):1461-1474. The authors examined how interactions between fire and permafrost govern rates of soil organic carbon accumulation in organic horizons, mineral soil of the active layer, and near-surface permafrost in a black spruce ecosystem of Interior Alaska.

The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra
E.A.G. Schuur et al. Nature (2009) 459:556-559. Permafrost soils in boreal and Arctic ecosystems store almost twice as much carbon as is currently present in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw and the microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon is considered one of the most likely positive climate feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a warmer world.

Effect of warming on the temperature dependence of soil respiration rate in Arctic, temperate and tropical soils
Y.S. Bekku et al. Applied Soil Ecology (2003) 22(3):205-210. The authors examined the response of the temperature coefficient for soil respiration rate to changes in environmental temperature through a laboratory incubation experiment. Soil samples were collected from three climatic areas: Arctic (Svalbard, Norway), temperate (Tsukuba, Japan), and tropical (Pasoh, Malaysia). Results suggest that the response of microbial respiration to climatic warming may differ between soils from different latitudes.

Effects of experimental warming of air, soil and permafrost on carbon balance in Alaskan tundra
S.M. Natali et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(3):1394-1407. To determine the effects of air and soil warming on CO2 exchange in tundra, the authors established an ecosystem warming experiment—the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research (CiPEHR) project—in the northern foothills of the Alaska Range in Interior Alaska.

Effects of hard frost and freeze-thaw cycles on decomposer communities and N mineralisation in boreal forest soil
P. Sulkava, V. Huhta. Applied Soil Ecology (2003) 2(3):225-239. Decomposition and mineralization rates generally increase with increasing moisture and temperature. The expected global climate change may enhance precipitation and raise the temperatures at boreal latitudes, but absence of snow together with occasional low temperatures may cause disturbances in soil processes and faunal communities.

Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming
E.S. Euskirchen et al. Global Change Biology (2007) 13(11):2425-2438. The warming associated with changes in snow cover in northern high-latitude terrestrial regions represents an important energy feedback to the climate system. Here, the authors simulate snow cover–climate feedbacks (i.e., changes in snow cover on atmospheric heating) across the pan-arctic over two distinct warming periods during the 20th century, 1910-1940 and 1970-2000.

Eurasian Arctic land cover and land use in a changing climate
G. Gutman, A. Reissel (eds.) Springer, 2011, 306 pages. This volume is a compilation of studies on interactions of land-cover/land-use change with climate in a region where the climate warming is most pronounced compared to other areas of the globe.

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions
L.D. Hinzman et al. Climatic Change (2005) 72(3):251-298. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large-scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.

Fire made Arctic spew, rather than absorb, carbon
NPR's "Morning Edition," July 29, 2011. One big blaze released more carbon into the atmosphere than the entire tundra absorbs every year.

Forests, land management, and agriculture
Chapter 14 (pages 781-862) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. While the most restrictive definitions limit the Arctic to treeless tundra, snow, and ice in the high latitudes, most definitions of the Arctic encompass some elements of the boreal forest. This chapter focuses on the northernmost portion of the boreal forest region. (PDF 3.39 MB)

Functional ecology of soil organisms in tundra ecosystems: Towards the future
I.D. Hodkinson, P.A. Wookey. Applied Soil Ecology (1999) 11(2-3):111-126. The resilience and response of tundra communities to change are discussed, and the possible alteration in community structure and function that may result from shifting climate patterns are reviewed.

Fungal feedbacks to climate change
S.M. Natali, M.C. Mack. Nature Climate Change (2011) 1:192-193. Climate change is known to affect the carbon balance of Arctic tundra ecosystems by influencing plant growth and decomposition. Less predictable climate-driven biotic events, such as disease outbreaks, are now shown to potentially shift these ecosystems from net carbon sinks to sources.

Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region
A. Wolf et al. Climatic Change (2008) 87(1-2):51-73. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region.

The future of arctic conservation
The Circle (2009), Issue 2. The Circle is published quarterly by the WWF International Arctic Programme. This edition of The Circle focuses on arctic conservation in times of rapid climate change. (PDF 2.89 MB)

Global declines of caribou and reindeer
L.S. Vors, M.S. Boyce. Global Change Biology (2009) 15:2626-2633. Caribou and reindeer herds are declining across their circumpolar range, coincident with increasing arctic temperatures and precipitation, and anthropogenic landscape change.

The greening and browning of Alaska based on 1982-2003 satellite data
D. Verbyla. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2008) 17(4):547-555. The author examines the trends of 1982-2003 satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values at several spatial scales within tundra and boreal forest areas of Alaska.

Greening of the Arctic: An IPY Initiative
The Greening of the Arctic (GoA) IPY initiative is comprised of four projects, each contributing to documenting, mapping, and understanding the rapid and dramatic changes to terrestrial vegetation expected across the circumpolar Arctic as a result of a changing climate.

Gunter Weller on global warming and Alaska
D. Cutler. Alaska Business Monthly (2001) 17(9):10. All sectors of the Alaska economy will be affected in one way or another. It seems likely that the Alaska fisheries could be the biggest loser if the present climate trends continue and the predicted global warming occurs.

High-Arctic ecosystem dynamics in a changing climate: Ten years of monitoring and research at Zackenberg Research Station, Northeast Greenland
H. Meltofte et al., eds. Advances in Ecological Research No. 40 (2008). This book is based on data collected during the past 10 years by Zaceknberg Ecological Research Operations (ZERO) at Zackenberg Research Station in Northeast Greenland. The volume offers a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of how climate variability is influencing an Arctic ecosystem and how Arctic ecosystems have inherent feedback mechanisms interacting with climate variability or change.

High nitrous oxide production from thawing permafrost
B. Elberling et al. Nature Geoscience (2010) 3(5):332-335. The authors examined the impact of thawing on nitrous oxide production in permafrost cores collected from a heath site and a wetland site in Zackenberg, Greenland.

High stocks of soil organic carbon in the North American Arctic region
C-L Ping et al. Nature Geoscience (2008) 1(9):615-619. The authors estimate that the total organic carbon pool in North American Arctic soils, together with the average amount of carbon per unit area, is considerably higher than previously thought. Their estimates will form an important basis for studies examining the impact of climate warming on CO2 release in the region.

How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data
T. Mueller et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2011) DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00638.x. The aim of this study was to demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species. Study locations were Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, and Eastern Steppes in Mongolia.

Icy Greenland turns green
BBC News, August 14, 2005. Greenland's ice is melting rapidly. In some places, glacial levels have been falling by 10 meters a year and ultimately contributing to rising sea levels. Traveling to Greenland, BBC's Richard Hollingham sees the impact of climate change for himself.

The impact of climate change on ecosystem carbon dynamics at the Scandinavian mountain birch forest–tundra heath ecotone
S. Sjögersten and P.A. Wookey. Ambio (2009) 38(1):2-10. Changes in temperature and moisture resulting from climate change are likely to strongly modify the ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity in high-latitude areas, both through vegetation shifts and via direct warming effects on photosynthesis and decomposition.

Impacts of climate change on the seasonal distribution of migratory caribou
S. Sharma et al. Global Change Biology (2009) 15(10):2549-2562. Arctic ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global climate change as temperature and precipitation regimes are altered. An ecologically and socially highly important northern terrestrial species that may be impacted by climate change is the caribou, Rangifer tarandus.

Impacts of elevated CO2 and temperature on the soil fauna of boreal forests
J. Haimi et al. Applied Soil Ecology (2005) 30(2):104-112. Responses of dominant soil decomposer animals in northern coniferous forests, enchytraeids and microarthropods, to elevated CO2 concentration and temperature were studied by sampling an experiment consisting of closed field chambers.

Impacts of large-scale atmospheric-ocean variability on Alaskan fire season severity
P.A. Duffy et al. Ecological Applications (2005) 15(4):1317-1330. Records from the past 53 years reveal high variability in the annual area burned in Alaska and corresponding high variability in weather occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here the authors use multiple linear regression (MLR) to systematically explore the relationships between weather variables and the annual area burned in Alaska.

Impacts of peat and vegetation on permafrost degradation under climate warming
S. Yi et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2007) 34:doi:10.1029/2007GL030550. A thin peat layer or surface organic cover can significantly buffer the permafrost against severe degradation. The occurrence of vegetation and extensive presence of a peat and organic layer in the circumpolar areas will modulate the regional impact of climate warming on permafrost thaw.

Impacts of a recent storm surge on an Arctic delta ecosystem examined in the context of the last millennium
M.F.J. Pisaric et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2011) 108(22):8960-8965. One of the most ominous predictions related to recent climatic warming is that low-lying coastal environments will be inundated by higher sea levels. The threat is especially acute in polar regions because reductions in extent and duration of sea ice cover increase the risk of storm surge occurrence. The authors examined growth rings of alder shrubs and diatoms preserved in dated lake sediment cores to show that a recent marine storm surge in 1999 caused widespread ecological changes across a broad extent of the outer Mackenzie Delta.

Implications of climate change for northern Canada: Freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems
T.D. Prowse et al. Ambio (2009) 38(5):282-289. As the climate continues to change, there will be consequences for biodiversity shifts and for the ranges and distribution of many species with resulting effects on availability, accessibility, and quality of resources upon which human populations rely. This will have implications for the protection and management of wildlife, fish, and fisheries resources; protected areas; and forests.

The importance of winter in annual ecosystem respiration in the High Arctic: Effects of snow depth in two vegetation types
E. Morgner et al. Polar Research (2010) 29(1):58-74. Winter respiration in snow-covered ecosystems strongly influences annual carbon cycling, underlining the importance of processes related to the timing and quantity of snow.

Important vegetation shift documented in Siberia's vast boreal forest
Yale Environment 360, March 25, 2011. As Russia's enormous boreal forest undergoes rapid warming, a significant shift in tree species is occurring, with evergreen trees such as spruce and fir creeping poleward as the iconic tree of Russia's far north, the larch, is in decline, according to a new study.

In warming North, some trees thrive as others ail
A.C. Revkin, New York Times, November 11, 2011. Evergreen trees at the edge of Alaska's tundra are growing faster, suggesting that at least some forests may be adapting to a rapidly warming climate, says a new study.

Inclusion of local environmental conditions alters high-latitude vegetation change predictions based on bioclimatic models
H. Sormunen et al. Polar Biology (2011) 34(6):883-897. Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are typically based on coarse-grained climate surfaces utilizing bioclimate envelope modelling. However, the suitability of environmental conditions for a given species might result from a variety of factors including some unrelated to climate. To address this issue, the authors investigated whether the inclusion of topographical and soil information in bioclimatic envelope models would significantly alter predictions of climate change.

Increased plant biomass in a High Arctic heath community from 1981 to 2008
J.M. Hudson, G.H. Henry. Ecology (2009) 90(10):2657-2663. This study provides plot-based evidence for the recent pan-Arctic increase in tundra productivity detected by satellite-based remote-sensing and repeat-photography studies. These types of ground-level observations are critical tools for detecting and projecting long-term community-level responses to warming.

Infra-red thermometry of alpine landscapes challenges climatic warming projections
D. Scherrer, C. Körner. Global Change Biology (2009). Rough mountain terrain offers climatic conditions (niches) to plants and animals poorly represented by conventional climate station data. However, the extent to which actual temperatures deviate from those of the freely circulating atmosphere had never been assessed at a landscape level.

Land use and land cover change in Arctic Russia: Ecological and social implications of industrial development
T. Kumpula et al. Global Environmental Change (2011) 21(2):550-562. Data are derived from field sampling, remote sensing, and intensive participant observation with indigenous Nenets reindeer herders and nonindigenous workers. Important trends include the rapid expansion of infrastructure, a large influx of workers who compete for freshwater fish, and extensive transformation from shrub- to grass- and sedge-dominated tundra.

Large N2O emissions from cryoturbated peat soil in tundra
M.E. Repo et al. Nature Geoscience (2009) 2(3):189-192. The authors conclude that not only carbon but also nitrogen stored in permafrost soils has to be considered when assessing the present and future climatic impact of tundra.

Large tundra methane burst during onset of freezing
M. Mastepanov et al. Nature (2008) 456:628-630. Permafrost-associated freeze-in bursts of methane emissions from tundra regions could be an important and so far unrecognized component of the seasonal distribution of methane emissions from high latitudes.

Largest recorded tundra fire yields scientific surprises
Science Daily, July 27, 2011. A study of the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire on Alaska's North Slope revealed how rapidly a single tundra fire can offset or reverse a half-century worth of soil-stored carbon.

A latitudinal gradient in tree growth response to climate warming in the Siberian taiga
A.H. Lloyd et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(5):1935-1945. The authors' findings suggest that increased productivity with warming is likely only in the northern reaches of the Siberian taiga. An increased prevalence of evergreen conifers in areas currently dominated by deciduous Larix species also seems likely.

Leaf mineral nutrition of Arctic plants in response to warming and deeper snow in northern Alaska
J.M. Welker et al. Oikos (2005) 109(1):167-177. Accurate depiction and projections of how Arctic tundra plants and ecosystems will respond to global warming require measurements of leaf mineral nutrition under independent and combined climate change scenarios involving both winter and summer conditions.

Lichen recovery following heavy grazing by reindeer delayed by climate warming
D.R. Klein, M. Shulski. Ambio (2009) 38(1):11-16. A warmer, drier climate and decreased fog in recent decades contributed to deterioration of conditions favoring lichen growth on St. Matthew Island in the Bering Sea.

Lightning and fires in the Northwest Territories and responses to future climate change
B. Kochtubajda et al. Arctic (2006) 59(2):211-221. The longer, warmer, and drier summer seasons projected to result from climate change are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of forest fires by the end of the 21st century. Their considerable consequences for forests and wildlife make these changes a concern for northern communities, forest managers, and wildlife biologists.

Long-term ecosystem level experiments at Toolik Lake, Alaska, and at Abisko, Northern Sweden: Generalizations and differences in ecosystem and plant type responses to global change
M.T. Van Wijk et al. Global Change Biology (2003) 10(1):105-123. This paper presents the results of a meta-analysis performed on the results of long-term ecosystem-level experiments near Toolik Lake, Alaska, and Abisko, Sweden.

Long-term monitoring of 1977 tundra fires in the northwest Alaska parks
C. Racine et al. Alaska Park Science (2010) 9(1):24-25. The frequency and size of lightning-caused tundra fires could increase with climate warming and may result in major ecosystem changes in vegetation, soils, and wildlife habitat over large areas of the Arctic.

Looking North: Current issues in Arctic soil ecology
O. W. Heal. Applied Soil Ecology (1999) 11(2-3):107-109. In Copenhagen in November 1996, about 50 soil biologists reviewed current research with emphasis on the impacts of climatic change on tundra soil processes and populations.

Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests
F.S. Chapin III et al. Ambio (2007) 36(7):528-533. Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species.

Mapping land cover change in a reindeer herding area of the Russian Arctic using Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery and indigenous knowledge
W.G. Rees et al. Remote Sensing of Environment (2003) 85(4):441-452. Traditionally, the tundra and the northern fringes of the boreal forest of northern Europe have been occupied by indigenous peoples whose main economic activity is reindeer herding. Groups of herders accompany their animals as they follow the annual changes in vegetation. As well as climate change, the ecology has been substantially affected by social changes that have had a marked effect on the relationship between reindeer, herder, and pasture.

Methane bursts from frozen tundra
A. Barnett, Nature News, December 3, 2008. Ice build-up may squeeze greenhouse gas from cold soil.

Modelling carbon balances of coastal arctic tundra under changing climate
R.F. Grant et al. Global Change Biology (2003) 9(1):16-36. Rising air temperatures are believed to be hastening heterotrophic respiration in arctic tundra ecosystems, which could lead to substantial losses of soil carbon.

Molecular investigations into a globally important carbon pool: permafrost-protected carbon in Alaskan soils
M.P. Waldrop et al. Global Change Biology (2010) 16(9):2543-2554. The fate of carbon (C) contained within permafrost in boreal forest environments is an important consideration for the current and future carbon cycle as soils warm in northern latitudes. Currently, little is known about the microbiology or chemistry of permafrost soils that may affect its decomposition once soils thaw.

Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: The International Polar Year - Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF)
T.V. Callaghan et al. Ambio (2011) 40(6):555-716. This entire issue of Ambio is dedicated to the findings of researchers who revisited IPY sites and data sets throughout the Arctic and some alpine regions. These efforts have amounted to a gamut of "BTF" studies that are collectively geographically expansive and disciplinary diverse. A selection of these studies are introduced and presented in the current issue together with a brief synthesis of their findings.

• Past and present permafrost temperatures in the Abisko area: Redrilling of boreholes (M. Johansson et al.)
• Multi-decadal changes in snow characteristics in sub-Arctic Sweden (C. Johansson)
• Current state of the Altai glaciers (Russia) and trends over the period of instrumental observations 1952-2008 (Y. Narozhniy, V. Zemtsov)
• Changes in tundra pond limnology: Re-sampling Alaskan ponds after 40 years (V.L. Lougheed)
• Assessment of biological and environmental phenology at a landscape level from 30 years of fixed-date repeat photography in northern Sweden (C. Andrews et al.)
• Expansion of canopy-forming willows over the twentieth century on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada (I.H. Myers-Smith et al.)
• Plant and vegetation dynamics on Disko Island, West Greenland: Snapshots separated by over 40 years (T.V. Callaghan et al.)
• Long-term effects of grazing and global warming on the composition and carrying capacity of graminoid marshes for moulting Geese in East Greenland (J. Madsen et al.)
• Flora and vegetation of Tasiilaq, formerly Angmagssalik, Southeast Greenland: A comparison of data between around 1900 and 2007 (F.J.A. Daniëls, J.G. de Molenaar)
• Four decades of plant community change in the alpine tundra of southwest Yukon, Canada (R.K. Danby)
• Changes in tree growth, biomass and vegetation over a 13-year period in the Swedish sub-Arctic (H. Hedenås et al.)
• Tree and shrub expansion over the past 34 years at the tree-line near Abisko, Sweden (S. Rundqvist et al.)
• Forecasting alpine vegetation change using repeat sampling and a novel modeling approach (D.R. Johnson et al.)
• Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: Synthesis of the International Polar Year - Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF) (T.V. Callaghan et al.)

Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: Implications for the region's greenhouse gas budget
Q. Zhuang et al. Ecological Applications (2007) 17(1):203-212. The authors used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to study the net methane (CH4) fluxes between Alaskan ecosystems and the atmosphere.

New conservation model emerges in Canada's boreal
C. Pala, The Daily Climate, July 19, 2010. An unprecedented effort to set aside huge swathes of Canada's boreal forest prompts all sides to rethink development goals, and for the first time some of the components have climate change mitigation as a key objective.

New database of plant traits emerges as potential tool in climate studies
Yale Environment 360, July 1, 2011. A consortium of scientists has compiled a database that categorizes millions of traits for nearly a quarter of the world's plant species, a resource they say will help climate researchers more accurately model the effects of climate change in different environments.

Northern wildfires threaten runaway climate change, study reveals
Science Daily, December 6, 2010. Fires in the Alaskan interior—an area spanning 18.5 million hectares—have become more severe in the past 10 years and have released much more carbon into the atmosphere than was stored by the region's forests over the same period.

Norwegian Arctic islands hold biodiversity bank
PBS NewsHour, September 13, 2007. A vault in the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, Norway, contains samples of the world's most important seeds, protecting the world's biodiversity in the event of a major disaster. Independent Television News reports on the project.

Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment
M.C. Serreze et al. Climatic Change (2000) 46(1-2):159-207. Studies from a variety of disciplines document recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Prompted by predictions of an amplified response of the Arctic to enhanced greenhouse forcing, the authors present a synthesis of these observations.

On the potential CO2 release from tundra soils in a changing climate
T.R. Christensen et al. Applied Soil Ecology (1999) 11(2-3):127-134. About 30% of the carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is stored in northern wetlands and boreal forest regions. Prevailing cold and wet soil conditions have largely been responsible for this carbon accumulation. It has been suggested that a warmer and drier climate in these regions might increase the decomposition rate and, hence, release more CO2 to the atmosphere than at present.

Origin of the lichen-spruce woodland in the closed-crown forest zone of eastern Canada
F. Girard et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2009) 18(3):291-303. Under global warming, warmer springs will lead to earlier low-intensity fires that do not remove as much organic matter, and hence prevent conditions suitable for black spruce regeneration. Also, spruce budworm reduces seed production for a certain time. The occurrence of fire during this period is critical for regeneration of black spruce.

Permafrost degradation and ecological changes associated with a warming climate in central Alaska
M.T. Jorgenson et al. Climatic Change (2001) 48(4):551-579. Studies from 1994-1998 on the Tanana Flats in central Alaska reveal that permafrost degradation is widespread and rapid, causing large shifts in ecosystems from birch forests to fens and bogs.

Plant response to temperature in northern Alaska: Implications for predicting vegetation change
R.D. Hollister et al. Ecology (2005) 86(6):1562-1570. This study examined natural temperature gradients, interannual climate variation, and experimental warming at sites near Barrow and Atqasuk in northern Alaska.

Plant species richness in continental southern Siberia: Effects of pH and climate in the context of the species pool hypothesis
Milan Chytrý et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2007) 16(5):668-678. Soil pH in continental southern Siberia is strongly negatively correlated with precipitation, and species richness is determined by the opposite effects of these two variables. Species richness increases with pH until the soil is very dry. In dry soils, pH is high but species richness decreases due to drought stress. Thus, the species richness-pH relationship is unimodal in treeless vegetation.

Plants at the margin: Ecological limits and climate change
R.M.M. Crawford, Cambridge University Press, 2008. Part III of this 494-page book contains selected case studies, starting with Arctic treelines and the complex relationship with climatic continentality and paludification (chapter 5). Two other chapters chiefly focus on the Arctic tundra (chapters 6 and 9).

Potential alteration by climate change of the forest-fire regime in the boreal forest of central Yukon Territory
V.M. McCoy, C.R. Burn. Arctic (2005) 58(3):276-285. Statistical relations were obtained to describe the association between forest fires and climate for the Dawson and Mayo fire management districts, central Yukon Territory. Annual fire incidence, area burned, and seasonal fire severity rating were compared with summer observations of mean temperature, total precipitation, mean relative humidity, and mean wind speed.

Potential effects of climate change on plant species in the Faroe Islands
A.M. Fosaa et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2004) 13(5):427-437. Due to a possible weakening of the North Atlantic Current, it is difficult to predict whether the climate in the Faroe Islands will be warmer or colder as a result of global warming. Therefore, two scenarios are proposed. The first scenario assumes an increase in summer and winter temperature of 2°C, and the second a decrease in summer and winter temperature of 2°C.

Potential impact of climate change and reindeer density on tundra indicator species in the Barents Sea region
C. Zöckler et al. Climatic Change (2008) 87(1-2):119-130. Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of habitats and thus the distribution of species connected with these habitats in the terrestrial Barents Sea region. It is hypothesized that wild species connected with the tundra and open-land biome may be particularly at risk as forest area expands.

Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea region
H. Roderfeld et al. Climatic Change (2008) 87(1-2):283-303. The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region.

Predicting invasive plant species range expansion in Alaska
Lecture #7 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented November 17, 2009, by Elizabeth Bella PhD, Ecologist, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Homer. Accompanying documents are a briefing report and a final report.

Predicting xylem phenology in black spruce under climate warming
S. Rossi et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(1):614-625. In the next century, the boreal ecosystems are projected to experience greater rates of warming than most other regions of the world. As the boreal forest constitutes a reservoir of trees of huge ecological importance and only partially known economic potential, any possible climate-related change in plant growth and dynamics has to be promptly predicted and evaluated.

Principles of conserving the Arctic's biodiversity
Chapter 10 (pages 539-596) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Climate change will result in changes in the productivity of ecosystems through photosynthesis and changes in the rates of decomposition. The balance between these two major processes will, to a large extent, determine the future nature of the arctic environment. (PDF 1.94 MB)

Rapid northwards expansion of a forest insect pest attributed to spring phenology matching with sub-Arctic birch
J.U. Jepsen et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(6):2071-2083. Climate-induced range expansions have been shown for two irruptive forest defoliators, the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata, causing more extensive forest damage in sub-Arctic Fennoscandia. Here, the authors document a rapid northwards expansion of a novel irruptive geometrid, Agriopis aurantiaria, into the same region, with the aim of providing insights into mechanisms underlying the recent geometrid range expansions and subsequent forest damage.

Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands
M.R. Turetsky et al. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(1):27-31. The authors examined the depth of ground-layer combustion in 178 sites dominated by black spruce in Alaska, using data collected from 31 fire events between 1983 and 2005.

Recent changes in Arctic vegetation: Satellite observations and simulation model predictions
S.J. Goetz et al. Chapter 2 of Eurasian Arctic land cover and land use in a changing climate, G. Gutman and A. Reissel (eds.), Springer, 2011. This chapter provides an overview of observed changes in vegetation productivity in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems over the past three decades based on satellite remote sensing and other observational records, and relates these to climate variables and sea ice conditions.

Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds
M. Wilmking. Global Change Biology (2004) 10(10):1724-1736. Recent climate warming has intensified the negative growth response of a large proportion of trees at locally productive sites near treeline in Alaska. Trees on less favorable sites may be benefiting from earlier thaw and are now outperforming productive sites, reversing the historical growth relationship.

Remote sensing of vegetation and land-cover change in Arctic tundra ecosystems
D.A. Stow et al. Remote Sensing of Environment (2004) 89(3):281-308.The objective of this paper is to synthesize results of research conducted over the past decade on the application of multi-temporal remote sensing for monitoring changes of Arctic tundra lands.

Responses of high Arctic wet sedge tundra to climate warming since 1980
G.B. Hill, G.H.R. Henry. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(1):276-287. Responses of tundra ecosystems to climate change have been examined primarily through short-term experimental manipulations, with few studies of long-term ambient change. This study investigates responses in above- and below-ground biomass of wet sedge tundra to the warming climate of the Canadian high Arctic over the past 25 years.

A richer, greener and smaller alpine world: Review and projection of warming-induced plant cover change in the Swedish Scandes
L. Kullman. Ambio (2010) 39(2):159-169. Upper range margin rise of trees and low-altitude (boreal) plant species, expansion of alpine grasslands and dwarf-shrub heaths are the modal biotic adjustments during the past few decades, after a century of substantial climate warming in the Swedish Scandes.

Russian Arctic warming and 'greening' are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows
B.C. Forbes et al. Global Change Biology (2010) 16:1542-1554. Findings suggest a significant increase in shrub willow growth in the northwest Russian Arctic over the past six decades and are in line with field and remote sensing studies and qualitative observations by nomadic Nenets reindeer herders.

Satellite-based mapping of the growing season and bioclimatic zones in Fennoscandia
S.R. Karlsen et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2006) 15(4):416-430. The aim of this study was to test whether satellite-derived NDVI values obtained during the growing season as delimited by the onset of phenological phases can be used to map bioclimatically a large region such as Fennoscandia.

Seasonal changes in the composition of the diets of Peary caribou and muskoxen on Banks Island
N.C. Larter, J.A. Nagy. Polar Research (2004) 23(2):131-140. Authors discuss herbivore diets in relation to foraging behavior and forage availability.

Sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change at landscape and local scales
F-K Holtmeier, G. Broll. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2005) 14(5):395-410. As treeline heterogeneity increases from global to regional and smaller scales, assessment of treeline sensitivity at the landscape and local scales requires a more complex approach than at the global scale. The sensitivity of treelines to changes in given factors (e.g., winter snow pack, soil moisture, temperature, evaporation, etc.) may vary among areas with differing climatic characteristics.

Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes
H. Matthes et al. Climatic Change (2012) 111(2):197-214. This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain.

Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change
J.K. Shuman et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(7):2370-2384. The Northern Hemisphere's boreal forests, particularly the Siberian boreal forest, may have a strong effect on Earth's climate through changes in dominant vegetation and associated regional surface albedo. The authors show that warmer climate will likely convert Siberia's deciduous larch (Larix spp.) to evergreen conifer forests, and thus decrease regional surface albedo.

Shifting climate, altered niche, and a dynamic conservation strategy for yellow cedar in the North Pacific coastal rainforest
Paul E. Hennon et al. BioScience (2012) 62(2):147-158. The authors document their approaches to resolving the causes of tree death, which they explain as a cascade of interacting topographic, forest-structure, and microclimate factors that act on a unique vulnerability of yellow cedar to fine-root freezing. Research on yellow-cedar decline is offered as a template for understanding and adapting to climate change for other climate-forest issues.

Shrinking tundra, advancing forests: How the Arctic will look by century's end
Science Daily, March 3, 2011. Imagine the vast, empty tundra in Alaska and Canada giving way to trees, shrubs and plants typical of more southerly climates. Imagine similar changes in large parts of Eastern Europe, northern Asia and Scandinavia, as needle-leaf and broadleaf forests push northward into areas once unable to support them. Imagine part of Greenland's ice cover, once thought permanent, receding and leaving new tundra in its wake.

Shrub line advance in alpine tundra of the Kluane region: Mechanisms of expansion and ecosystem impacts
I. Myers-Smith. Arctic (2007) 60(4):447-451. With a warming climate, northern ecosystems will face significant ecological changes such as permafrost thaw, increased forest fire frequency, and shifting ecosystem boundaries, including the spread of tall shrubs into tundra.

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat
T.S. Rupp et al. Ecological Applications (2006) 16(5):1730-1743. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat.

Skip Walker on satellite observations of Arctic greening
EarthSky interview with Skip Walker, geobotanist at University of Alaska Fairbanks, March 5, 2009.

Soil atlas of the northern circumpolar region
A. Jones et al., eds. European Commission, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2010. The northern circumpolar region contains around 60% of the global soil carbon pool, much of it locked up in permanently or seasonally frozen ground. Understanding the evolution of these soils and associated vegetation patterns in relation to climate change, and also their use by society, is fundamental if we wish to assess fully global change processes.

Soil microbes define dangerous rates of climate change
ScienceDaily, November 30, 2010. The rate of global warming could lead to a rapid release of carbon from peatlands that would further accelerate global warming.

Soil microbial respiration in Arctic soil does not acclimate to temperature
I.P. Hartley et al. Ecology Letters (2008) 11(10):1092-1100. The authors conclude that over the time scale of a few weeks to months warming-induced changes in the microbial community in Arctic soils will amplify the instantaneous increase in the rates of CO2 production and thus enhance C losses, potentially accelerating the rate of 21st century climate change.

Soil science: The Arctic carbon count
C. Beer. Nature Geoscience (2008) 1(9):569-570. Despite its potential importance in a warming world, the organic carbon content of Arctic soils has escaped robust quantification. A closer look at the North American sector suggests that much more carbon is stored in these high northern grounds than previously thought.

Soil science: Arctic thaw
H.F. Jungkunst. Nature Geoscience (2010) 3(5):306-307. The organic matter stored in frozen Arctic soils could release significant quantities of carbon dioxide and methane on thawing. Now, laboratory experiments show that re-wetting of previously thawed permafrost could increase nitrous oxide production by 20-fold.

Spatial heterogeneity of tundra vegetation response to recent temperature changes
G.J. Jia et al. Global Change Biology (2006) 12(1):42-55. The spatial heterogeneity of recent decadal dynamics in vegetation greenness and biomass in response to changes in summer warmth index (SWI) was investigated along spatial gradients on the Arctic Slope of Alaska.

Spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of high-elevation forest stands in southern Siberia
V.I. Kharuk et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2010) 19(6):822-830. The spatial pattern of upper mountain forests as well as the response of forests to warming strongly depends on topographic relief features (elevation, azimuth, and slope steepness). Warming promotes migration of trees to areas that are less protected from winter desiccation and snow abrasion. Climate-induced forest response has significantly modified the spatial patterns of high-elevation forests in southern Siberia during the last four decades, as well as tree morphology.

Spitsbergen landscape under 20th century climate change: Sørkapp Land
W. Ziaja. Ambio (2004) 33(6):295-299. This aim of this paper is to outline the reaction of a middle-sized region of the European Arctic landscape to climate change during the 20th century. Climatic change influences all elements of the Arctic landscape of Svalbard, but the most important for landscape transformation are changes resulting from deglaciation.

Storage and mineralization of carbon and nitrogen in soils of a frost-boil tundra ecosystem in Siberia
C. Kaiser et al. Applied Soil Ecology (2005) 29(2):173-183. This study examines the carbon and nitrogen stocks of soils and vegetation in different frost-boil tundra microsites (rims, troughs, and bare soil patches) and aims at elucidating differences in controls of organic matter turnover. Decomposition of organic material in rims is controlled mainly by N availability, while the main factor constraining decomposition in troughs may be unfavorable hydrothermal conditions. This may lead to differential responses of frost-boil tundra microsites to changing climatic conditions.

Timing is everything—Monitoring plant phenology in the Central Alaska Network
C. Roland. Alaska Park Science (2010) 9(1):33 The timing of recurring biological events, or phenology, affects how well plants and animals reproduce. It is also a measure scientists can use to track climate change and its effects. As a result, the Central Alaska Network has incorporated measures of plant phenology as an important component of its long-term vegetation monitoring program.

Tipping points in the tundra
J.A. Foley. Science (2005) 310(5748):627-628. Reductions in highly reflective snow cover and expanding shrub and tree cover, both caused by recent warming in the Arctic, are amplifying the temperature changes in the region.

Tree-line dynamics: Adding fire to climate change prediction
C.D. Brown. Arctic (2010) 63(4):488-492. The northern regions of Yukon and Alaska have experienced a 2°C increase in summer temperatures since the 1960s. In the boreal forest, fires are expected to occur more often as the climate warms. Because of the long period black spruce require to become reproductively mature, an increase in fire activity may interrupt the cycle of post-fire self-replacement for this dominant boreal conifer. This interruption could initiate a change in the structure and function of these northern ecosystems that will have important implications for the global carbon cycle because it alters patterns of carbon accumulation and storage.

20th century climate warming and tree-limit rise in the southern Scandes of Sweden
L. Kullman. Ambio (2001) 30(2):72-80. After a slight retardation during some cooler decades after 1940, a new active phase of tree-limit advance has occurred with a series of exceptionally mild winters and some warm summers during the 1990s.

Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo
M.M. Loranty et al. Environmental Research Letters (2011) 6(2):024014. Recent field experiments in tundra ecosystems describe how increased shrub cover reduces winter albedo, and how subsequent changes in surface net radiation lead to altered rates of snowmelt. These findings imply that tundra vegetation change will alter regional energy budgets. Using satellite observations and a pan-Arctic vegetation map, the authors examined the effects of shrub vegetation on albedo across the terrestrial Arctic.

Variability in exchange of CO2 across 12 northern peatland and tundra sites
M. Lund et al. Global Change Biology (2010) 16(9):2436-2448. Many wetland ecosystems such as peatlands and wet tundra hold large amounts of organic carbon (C) in their soils and are thus important in the terrestrial C cycle. The authors have synthesized data on the carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange obtained from eddy covariance measurements from 12 wetland sites across Europe and North America, spanning temperate to arctic climate zones.

Variability of the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (SINDVI) across the North Slope of Alaska in the 1990s
D.A. Stow et al. International Journal of Remote Sensing (2003) 24(5):1111-1117. The interannual variability and trend of above-ground photosynthetic activity of Arctic tundra vegetation in the 1990s is examined for the North Slope region of Alaska, based on the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (SINDVI). Findings suggest an increasing trend of SINDVI in the 1990s for the entire North Slope.

Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River, Alaska
L. Andreu-Hayles et al. Environmental Research Letters (2011) 6:DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045503. The response of boreal forests to anthropogenic climate change remains uncertain, with potentially significant impacts for the global carbon cycle, albedo, canopy evapotranspiration, and feedbacks into further climate change. This study focuses on tree-ring data from the Firth River site at treeline in northeastern Alaska, in a tundra-forest transition region where pronounced warming has already occurred.

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: Implications for soil response to climate change
Z. Fan et al. Science of the Total Environment (2011) 409(10):1836-1842. Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes.

Winter climate change in alpine tundra: Plant responses to changes in snow depth and snowmelt timing
S. Wipf. Climatic Change (2009) 94(1-2):105-121. Changes in winter climate and snow cover characteristics should be taken into account when predicting climate change effects on alpine ecosystems.

(Back to Top)

Freshwater Systems

Alaska the 'poster state' for climate concerns
E. Weise. USA Today (updated 5/31/06). Alaska is important in measuring the effect of global warming on the USA because what happens here soon will be felt in the Lower 48 states.

Aquatic ecosystems and global climate change: Potential impacts on inland freshwater and coastal wetland ecosystems in the United States
Report prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, January 2002. This is the seventh in a series of Pew Center reports examining the potential impacts of climate change on the U.S. environment. It details the likely impacts of climate change over the next century on U.S. aquatic ecosystems. (PDF 363 KB)

Arctic biodiversity trends 2010: Selected indicators of change
Report by CAFF International Secretariat, Akureyri, Iceland, May 2010. In 2008, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) passed a resolution expressing "extreme concern" over the impacts of climate change on Arctic indigenous peoples, other communities, and biodiversity. It highlighted the potentially significant consequences of changes in the Arctic. Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010: Selected Indicators of Change provides evidence that some of those anticipated impacts on Arctic biodiversity are already occurring. (PDF 18.57 MB)

Arctic freshwater pouring into Atlantic, scientists say
NPR's "All Things Considered," August 24, 2006. For close to half a century, the flow from Arctic rivers and from rainfall has increased dramatically. There's also more freshwater coming from sea ice in the Arctic Ocean that's been rapidly melting, and there's yet more freshwater coming from melting glaciers. Scientists are worried that the Atlantic currents that influence land climate could suddenly change as a result.

Arctic lake sediments show warming, unique ecological changes in recent decades
ScienceDaily, October 27, 2009. An analysis of sediment cores indicates that biological and chemical changes occurring at a remote Arctic lake are unprecedented over the past 200,000 years and likely are the result of human-caused climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Arctic ponds dry up, disappear
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," July 6, 2007. New research shows that ponds found in the high Arctic are going dry. The shallow ponds are important ecosystems, freezing solid in the winter but teeming with life during the summertime. Researchers believe the drying of the ponds may be due to global climate change.

Arctic water flow speeding up
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, April 6, 2006. One of Siberia's largest rivers is dumping about 10% more fresh water into the Arctic today than it was some 60 years ago, thanks to the complex effects of increased snowfall, melting permafrost, and changing weather.

An assessment of Arctic Ocean freshwater content changes from the 1990s to the 2006-2008 period
B. Rabe et al. Deep Sea Research Part I (2011) 58(2):173-185. Regional variations in liquid freshwater inventories in Arctic Ocean basins are due both to changes in the depth of the lower halocline, often forced by regional wind-induced Ekman pumping, and to a mean freshening of the water column above this depth, associated with an increased net sea ice melt and advection of increased amounts of river water from the Siberian shelves.

Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services
H. Mooney. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2009) 1(1):46-54. Stresses imposed by climate change in the coming years will require extraordinary adaptation. We need to track the changing status of ecosystems, deepen our understanding of the biological underpinnings for ecosystem service delivery, and develop new tools and techniques for maintaining and restoring resilient biological and social systems.

Canadian RCM projected changes to extreme precipitation characteristics over Canada
B. Mladjic, L. Sushama. Journal of Climate (2011) 24(10):2565-2584. Changes to the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic extremes can have significant impacts on sectors associated with water resources, and therefore it is relevant to assess their vulnerabilities in a changing climate. This study focuses on the assessment of projected changes to selected return levels of 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-day annual (April-September) maximum precipitation amounts over Canada.

Climate change: Water cycle shifts gear
T.F. Stocker, C.C. Raible. Nature (2005) 434:830-833. Various studies indicate that the hydrological cycle is speeding up at high northern latitudes. The resulting increase in freshwater flow into the Arctic Ocean is predicted to have long-range effects.

Climate change and freshwater ecosystems: Impacts across multiple levels of organization
G. Woodward et al. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2010) 365(1549):2093-2106. The different components of climate change (e.g. temperature, hydrology and atmospheric composition) not only affect multiple levels of biological organization, but they may also interact with the many other stressors to which fresh waters are exposed, and future research needs to address these potentially important synergies.

Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach
I. Omann et al. Ecological Economics (2009) 69(1):24-31. Based on an analysis using the DPSIR framework, this paper discusses some of the important socioeconomic driving forces of climate change, with a focus on energy use and transportation. The paper also analyzes observed and potential changes of climate and the pressures they exert on biodiversity, the changes in biodiversity, the resulting impacts on ecosystem functions, and possible policy responses.

Climate change effects on aquatic biota, ecosystem structure and function
F.J. Wrona et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):359-369. Climate change will probably produce significant effects on the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems throughout the Arctic and possibly initiate varying adaptive responses. The magnitude, extent, and duration of the impacts and responses will be system- and location-dependent, and difficult to separate from other environmental stressors.

Climate change effects on hydroecology of Arctic freshwater ecosystems
T.D. Prowse et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):347-358. In general, the arctic freshwater-terrestrial system will warm more rapidly than the global average, particularly during the autumn and winter season. The decline or loss of many cryospheric components and a shift from a nival to an increasingly pluvial system will produce numerous physical effects on freshwater ecosystems.

Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea
L.P. Graham. Ambio (2004) 33(4):235-241. Climate change in the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin is expected to affect the hydrological water balance in the region and lead to changes in river flows to the sea. Such changes will potentially impact on many sectors of society ranging from basic water supply to large-scale environmental consequences.

Climate change impact on water quality: Model results from southern Sweden
B. Arheimer. Ambio (2005) 34(7):559-566. Nitrogen (N) transport from land (mainly by rivers) is contributing to the eutrophication problems in the Baltic Sea. The amount of N transported is a result of point-source emissions, atmospheric deposition, N leaching from soil, and biochemical removal processes (retention) in the freshwater system. Except for point-source emissions, all these factors are strongly influenced by weather (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and would thus be affected by climate change.

Climate change predicted to cause severe increase of organic carbon in lakes
S. Larsen et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(2):1186-1192. Riverine transport of organic carbon (OC) to the ocean is a significant component in the global carbon (C) cycle, and the concentration of total organic carbon (TOC) in rivers and lakes is vital for ecosystem properties and water quality for human use. The authors predict TOC concentrations by use of a large dataset comprising chemical variables and detailed catchment information in ~1000 Norwegian pristine lakes covering a wide climatic range.

Climate-driven release of carbon and mercury from permafrost mires increases mercury loading to sub-arctic lakes
J. Rydberg. Science of the Total Environment (2010) 408(20):4778-4783. Many northern peatlands are currently underlain by permafrost, which controls mire stability and hydrology. With the ongoing climate change, there is concern that permafrost thawing will turn large areas of these peatlands from carbon/mercury-sinks into much wetter carbon/mercury-sources.

Climate impacts on Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fisheries: Background, rationale and approach of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
F.J. Wrona et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):326-329. Changes in climate and ultraviolet radiation levels in the Arctic will have far-reaching impacts, affecting aquatic species at various trophic levels, the physical and chemical environment that makes up their habitat, and the processes that act on and within freshwater ecosystems.

Competitive exclusion along climate gradients: Energy efficiency influences the distribution of two salmonid fishes
A.G. Finstad et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(4):1703-1711. The authors tested the importance of thermal adaptations and energy efficiency in relation to the geographical distribution of two competing freshwater salmonid fish species. Presence-absence data for Arctic char and brown trout were obtained from 1502 Norwegian lakes embracing both temperature and productivity gradients. The distributions were contrasted with laboratory-derived temperature scaling models for food consumption, growth, and energy efficiency.

Comprehensive conservation planning to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services in Canadian boreal regions under a warming climate and increasing exploitation
D.W. Schindler, P.G. Lee. Biological Conservation (2010) 143(7):1571-1586. Boreal regions contain more than half of the carbon in forested regions of the world and over 60% of the world's surface freshwater. Carbon storage and the flood control and water filtration provided by freshwaters and wetlands have recently been identified as the most important ecosystem services provided by boreal regions. Climate warming, via its effect on permafrost melting, insect damage, and forest fire, threatens to trigger large positive carbon feedbacks that may enhance the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, further amplifying climate warming.

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
M.R. Allen, W.J. Ingram. Nature (2002) 419:224-232. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.

Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes
G. Kaser et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010) 107(47):20223-20227. Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. The authors estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems.

Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds
J.P. Smol, M.S.V. Douglas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2007) 104(30):12395-12397. Some high Arctic ponds, which paleolimnological data indicate have been permanent water bodies for millennia, are now completely drying during the polar summer. The authors link the disappearance of the ponds to increased evaporation/precipitation ratios, probably associated with climatic warming.

Cryosphere and hydrology
Chapter 6 (pages 183-242) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Earlier breakup and later freeze-up have combined to lengthen the ice-free season of rivers and lakes by up to three weeks since the early 1900s throughout much of the Arctic. It is likely that low-frequency variations in the atmosphere and ocean have played at least some role in forcing the cryospheric and hydrological trends of the past few decades. (PDF 5.23 MB)

Cumulative effects of climate warming and other human activities on freshwaters of Arctic and subarctic North America
D.W. Schindler, J.P. Smol. Ambio (2006) 35(4):160-168. High-latitude regions are especially sensitive to the effects of recent climatic warming, which have already resulted in marked regime shifts in the biological communities of many Arctic lakes and ponds.

Current State & Trends Assessment: Polar Systems, Chapter 25: Polar Systems by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 
Because of polar amplification of climate change, the ecological impacts of warming are evident earliest and most clearly at high latitudes. In a region of near-pristine wilderness, relationships between ecosystems, species, and environment are more clearly defined than in populated regions where human influences can mask these relationships. This chapter emphasizes the ecological processes that most directly influence human well-being within and outside polar regions. (PDF 994 KB)

Differences in thermal tolerance among sockeye salmon populations
E.J. Eliason et al. Science (2011) 332(6025):109-112. Climate change–induced increases in summer water temperature have been associated with elevated mortality of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during river migration. The authors show that cardiorespiratory physiology varies at the population level among Fraser River sockeye salmon and relates to historical environmental conditions encountered while migrating.

The distribution and diversity of Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) in western Finnish Lapland, with special emphasis on shallow lakes
M. Nyman et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2005) 14(2):137-153. The authors assess the influence of environmental variables on chironomid distribution and taxon richness in shallow, isothermal lakes in a poorly studied Arctic region, with particular attention to community variation along the treeline ecotonal zone where many environmental variables change abruptly in a relatively small area.

Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change
E. Post et al. Science (2009) 325(5946):1355-1358. Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity.

Ecological impacts of climate change
National Academy of Sciences, 2009. This booklet is based on the report Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2008), by the Committee on Ecological Impacts of Climate Change. (PDF 8.14 MB)

The ecology of tundra ponds of the Arctic coastal plain: A community profile
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, June 1984. This community profile synthesizes much of the information on the ecology of Arctic coastal plain wetlands. It will provide background and information needed by government planners and environmental scientists whose decisions will influence the future of this vast region. In addition, it will provide students, scientists, and laymen a better understanding of how Arctic ponds and wetlands function. (PDF 7.02 MB)

Ecoregion: Polar/subpolar
This fact sheet published by the U.S. Global Change Research Program identifies unique characteristics of the polar and subpolar regions that may be affected by climate change. (PDF 822 KB)

Effect of climate change on flux of N and C: Air-land-freshwater-marine links: Synthesis
A.O. Stuanes et al. Ambio (2008) 37(1):2-8. Projected climate change might increase the deposition of nitrogen by about 10% to seminatural ecosystems in southern Norway.

Effects of changing climate on zooplankton and juvenile sockeye salmon growth in southwestern Alaska
D.E. Schindler et al. Ecology (2005) 86(1):198-209. The authors explored the effects of density-dependence and changing climate on growth of juvenile sockeye salmon and the densities of their zooplankton prey in the Wood River system of southwestern Alaska.

Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for Arctic freshwater and anadromous species
J.D. Reist et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):402-410. Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers.

Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)
E.G. Martins et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(1):99-114. In recent years, record high river temperatures during spawning migrations of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) have been associated with high mortality events, raising concerns about long-term viability of the numerous natal stocks faced with climate warming. In this study, the effect of freshwater thermal experience on spawning migration survival was estimated.

Effects of simultaneous climate change and geomorphic evolution on thermal characteristics of a shallow Alaskan lake
J.R. Griffiths et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2011) 56(1):193-205. The authors used a hydrodynamics model to assess the consequences of climate warming and contemporary geomorphic evolution for thermal conditions in a large, shallow Alaskan lake, evaluating the effects of both known climate and landscape change over the past 50 years, including rapid outlet erosion and migration of the principal inlet stream, as well as future scenarios of geomorphic restoration.

Effects of ultraviolet radiation and contaminant-related stressors on Arctic freshwater ecosystems
F.J. Wrona et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):388-401. Climate change is likely to act as a multiple stressor, leading to cumulative and/or synergistic impacts on aquatic systems. Projected increases in temperature and corresponding alterations in precipitation regimes will enhance contaminant influxes to aquatic systems, and independently increase the susceptibility of aquatic organisms to contaminant exposure and effects.

Environmental warming and biodiversity—Ecosystem functioning in freshwater microcosms: Partitioning the effects of species identity, richness and metabolism
D.M. Perkins et al. Advances in Ecological Research (2010) 43:177-209. This study investigates the capacity for assemblages of three freshwater invertebrate consumer species (Asellus aquaticus, Nemoura cinerea, and Sericostoma personatum) from temperate (southern England) and boreal (northern Sweden) regions to respond to expected shifts in temperature and basal resources, and quantified rates of a key ecosystem process (leaf-litter decomposition).

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions
L.D. Hinzman et al. Climatic Change (2005) 72(3):251-298. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large-scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.

Evidence needed to manage freshwater ecosystems in a changing climate: Turning adaptation principles into practice
R.L. Wilby et al. Science of the Total Environment (2010) 408(19):4150-4164. The authors assert that adaptation planning is constrained by uncertainty about evolving climatic and nonclimatic pressures, by difficulties in predicting species- and ecosystem-level responses to these forces, and by the plasticity of management goals.

Factors influencing zooplankton size structure at contrasting temperatures in coastal shallow lakes: Implications for effects of climate change
S. Brucet et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2010) 55(4):1697-1711. This study assesses the importance of temperature, salinity, and predation for the size structure of zooplankton and provides insight into the future ecological structure and function of shallow lakes in a warmer climate. The experiment was carried out in four cold-temperate shallow coastal lakes located in the north of Denmark and in four Mediterranean shallow coastal lakes located in the northeast of Spain.

Food web changes in Arctic ecosystems related to climate warming
R. Quinlan et al. Global Change Biology (2005) 11(8):1381-1386. Predicted future warming in the Arctic may produce ecological changes that exceed the large shifts that have already occurred since the 19th century.

Freshwater ecosystems and fisheries
Chapter 8 (pages 353-452) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Freshwater ecosystems are complex entities that consist of groups of species at various trophic levels, the hydrological and physical environment that makes up their habitat, the chemical properties of that environment, and the multiple physical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes that act on and within the system. Hence, any change in these attributes and processes as a result of changes in climate and UV radiation levels will ultimately contribute to variable and dynamic responses within freshwater systems.

Freshwater flux to Sermilik Fjord, SE Greenland
S.H. Mernild et al. The Cryosphere (2010) 4(3):1195-1224. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution, snow and ice melt, and runoff modeling system, was used to simulate the temporal and spatial terrestrial runoff distribution to the fjord based on observed meteorological data (1999-2008) from stations located on and around the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS).

Freshwater methane emissions offset the continental carbon sink
D. Bastviken et al. Science (2011) 331(6013):50. Inland waters (lakes, reservoirs, streams, and rivers) are often substantial methane sources in the terrestrial landscape. They are, however, not yet well integrated in global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. The continental GHG sink may be considerably overestimated, and freshwaters need to be recognized as important in the global carbon cycle.

Freshwater methane release changes greenhouse gas equation
ScienceDaily, January 6, 2011. An international team of scientists has released data indicating that greenhouse gas uptake by continents is less than previously thought because of methane emissions from freshwater areas.

Freshwater systems: Understanding change in Alaska and the Arctic
This webpage from North by 2020, an International Polar Year initiative, discusses the stress to Alaska's hydrologic system from climate change, particularly from thawing of permafrost.

The future of arctic conservation
The Circle (2009), Issue 2. The Circle is published quarterly by the WWF International Arctic Programme. This edition of The Circle focuses on arctic conservation in times of rapid climate change. (PDF 2.89 MB)

General effects of climate change on Arctic fishes and fish populations
J.D. Reist et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):370-380. Projected shifts in climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation are of great relevance to arctic freshwater ecosystems and biota. These will result in many direct and indirect effects upon the ecosystems and fish present therein.

General features of the Arctic relevant to climate change in freshwater ecosystems
T.D. Prowse et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):330-338. Arctic climate, many components of which exhibit strong variations along latitudinal gradients, directly affects a range of physical, chemical, and biological processes in freshwater aquatic systems.

Geochemistry of west Siberian streams and their potential response to permafrost degradation
K.E. Frey et al. Water Resources Research (2007) 43(3). Warming and permafrost degradation will likely amplify the transport of dissolved solids to the Kara Sea and adjacent Arctic Ocean. Permafrost forms a confining barrier that inhibits the infiltration of surface water through deep mineral horizons and restricts mineral-rich subpermafrost groundwater from reaching surface water pathways. With climate warming and subsequent permafrost thaw, this region may transition from a surface water–dominated system to a groundwater-dominated system.

Glaciers as a source of ancient and labile organic matter to the marine environment
E. Hood et al. Nature (2009) 462:1044-1047. Glaciers and ice sheets represent the second largest reservoir of water in the global hydrologic system. The authors suggest that climatically driven changes in glacier volume could alter the age, quantity, and reactivity of dissolved organic matter (DOM) entering coastal oceans.

Global climate change and potential effects on Pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska
M.D. Bryant. Climatic Change (2009) 95:169-193. Rapid changes in climatic conditions may not extirpate anadromous salmonids in the region, but they will impose greater stress on many stocks that are adapted to present climatic conditions. Survival of sustainable populations will depend on the existing genetic diversity within and among stocks, conservative harvest management, and habitat conservation.

Global warming impacts on lake trout in Arctic lakes
M.E. McDonald et al. Limnology and Oceanography (1996) 41(5):1102-1108. If recent changes in Arctic Alaska's Toolik Lake foreshadow a long-term trend, the authors suggest that young-of-year (YOY) lake trout will not survive their first winter. Such changes, coupled with other current anthropogenic impacts in the Arctic, may disrupt lake trout control of the trophic structure in Arctic lakes.

Gunter Weller on global warming and Alaska
D. Cutler. Alaska Business Monthly (2001) 17(9):10. All sectors of the Alaska economy will be affected in one way or another. It seems likely that the Alaska fisheries could be the biggest loser if the present climate trends continue and the predicted global warming occurs.

High-Arctic ecosystem dynamics in a changing climate: Ten years of monitoring and research at Zackenberg Research Station, Northeast Greenland
H. Meltofte et al., eds. Advances in Ecological Research No. 40 (2008). This book is based on data collected during the past 10 years by Zaceknberg Ecological Research Operations (ZERO) at Zackenberg Research Station in Northeast Greenland. The volume offers a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of how climate variability is influencing an Arctic ecosystem and how Arctic ecosystems have inherent feedback mechanisms interacting with climate variability or change.

High Arctic lakes as sentinel ecosystems: Cascading regime shifts in climate, ice cover, and mixing
D.R. Mueller et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2009) 54(6, part 2):2371-2385. Lakes on Ellesmere Island at the far northern coastline of Canada have experienced significant reductions in summer ice cover over the past decade. Although subject to six decades of warming, these lakes were largely unaffected until a regime shift in air temperature in the 1980s and 1990s, when warming crossed a critical threshold, forcing the loss of ice cover.

Human-induced Arctic moistening
S-K Min et al. Science (2008) 320(5875):518-520. Human-induced Arctic moistening is consistent with observed increases in Arctic river discharge and freshening of Arctic water masses. This result provides new evidence that human activity has contributed to Arctic hydrological change.

Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Yukon River Basin
L.E. Hay, G.J. McCabe. Climatic Change (2010) 100(3-4):509-523. Potential hydrologic effects of climate change were assessed for the YRB by imposing changes in precipitation and temperature derived from selected Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) climate simulations.

Hydrological change – Climate change impact simulations for Sweden
J. Andréasson et al. Ambio (2004) 33(4):228-234. Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins.

The hydrologic regime of perched lakes in the Mackenzie Delta: Potential responses to climate change
P. Marsh, L.F.W. Lesack. Limnology and Oceanography (1996) 41(5):849-856. To illustrate potential impacts of climate change on perched or high-closure lakes in the Mackenzie Delta, the authors developed and tested a simulation model.

Hydrology, water availability and tundra ecosystem function in a changing climate: The need for a closer integration of ideas?
I.D. Hodkinson et al. Global Change Biology (1999) 5(3):359-369. The impacts of predicted long-term changes in climate have particularly important consequences for the functioning of tundra systems. This paper attempts to summarize existing information on the role of water within tundra ecosystems, to emphasize the fundamental links between the biotic and the physico/chemical environments and to suggest how a closer integration of ideas might be achieved.

Impacts of climate warming on polar marine and freshwater ecosystems
S. Agustí et al. (eds.) Polar Biology (2010) 33(12):1595-1746. Warming and ice loss will affect key biological and biogeochemical processes of aquatic polar ecosystems and may induce ecological regime shifts, associated with possible losses of biodiversity and an increased vulnerability to invasions of species from lower latitudes. The goal of this special issue of Polar Biology is to bring together research results addressing impacts of warming and ice loss in both Antarctic and Arctic aquatic ecosystems.

Implications of climate change for northern Canada: Freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems
T.D. Prowse et al. Ambio (2009) 38(5):282-289. As the climate continues to change, there will be consequences for biodiversity shifts and for the ranges and distribution of many species with resulting effects on availability, accessibility, and quality of resources upon which human populations rely. This will have implications for the protection and management of wildlife, fish, and fisheries resources; protected areas; and forests.

Key findings, science gaps and policy recommendations
F.J. Wrona et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):411-415. In general, changes in climate and UV in the Arctic will have far-reaching impacts, affecting aquatic species of varying trophic levels, the physical environment that makes up their habitat and the chemical properties of that environment, and the processes that act on and within freshwater ecosystems.

Lakes and reservoirs as sentinels, integrators, and regulators of climate change
C.E. Williamson et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2009) 54(6, part 2):2273-2282. Lakes and reservoirs comprise a geographically distributed network of the lowest points in the surrounding landscape that make them important sentinels of climate change. Their physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate provide a variety of information-rich signals.

Lakes as sentinels and integrators for the effects of climate change on watersheds, airsheds, and landscapes
D.W. Schindler. Limnology and Oceanography (2009) 54(6, part 2):2349-2358. Lakes provide unique sentinels and integrators of events in their catchments and airsheds and in the total landscapes in which they are embedded. A variety of physical, chemical, and biological properties of lakes are amenable to simple, precise, and inexpensive long-term monitoring.

Lakes as sentinels of climate change
R. Adrian et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2009) 54(6, part 2):2283-2297. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment.

Large-scale climate controls of Interior Alaska river ice breakup
P.A. Bieniek et al. Journal of Climate (2011) 24(1)286-297. Frozen rivers in the Arctic serve as critical highways because of the lack of roads; therefore, it is important to understand the key mechanisms that control the timing of river ice breakup. The relationships between springtime Interior Alaska river ice breakup date and the large-scale climate are investigated for the Yukon, Tanana, Kuskokwim, and Chena rivers for the 1949-2008 period.

Methane bubbling from northern lakes: Present and future contributions to the global methane budget
K.M. Walter et al. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (2007) 365(1856):1657-1676. Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane (CH4) limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Here, the authors describe and quantify an important source of CH4—point-source ebullition (bubbling) from northern lakes—that has not been incorporated in previous regional or global methane budgets.

Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming
K.M. Walter et al. Nature (2006) 443:71-75. Thaw lakes in North Siberia are known to emit methane, but the magnitude of these emissions remains uncertain because most methane is released through ebullition (bubbling), which is spatially and temporally variable. Here, the authors report a new method of measuring ebullition and use it to quantify methane emissions from two thaw lakes in North Siberia.

Methane emissions from permafrost thaw lakes limited by lake drainage
J. van Huissteden et al. Nature Climate Change (2011) 1:119-123. Results suggest that methane emissions from thaw lakes in Siberia are an order of magnitude less alarming than previously suggested, although predicted lake expansion will still profoundly affect permafrost ecosystems and infrastructure.

Modeling the impact of climate change on runoff and annual water balance of an Arctic headwater basin
S. Pohl et al. Arctic (2007) 60(2):173-186. Climate change will be an important issue facing Arctic areas in the coming decades since climate models are projecting warmer and wetter conditions for many northern regions. From a hydrological perspective, critical issues include a shortened snow cover season, changes in winter snow cover properties, and changes in the timing and volume of snowmelt runoff.

Modelling the future hydroclimatology of the lower Fraser River and its impacts on the spawning migration survival of sockeye salmon
M.J. Hague et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(1):87-98. The authors downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia, to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success.

No place too cold
J. Laybourn-Parry. Science (2009) 324(5934):1521-1522. Free water on or under glaciers or ice sheets contains numerous species of microorganisms. These delicate ecosystems are widely regarded as sentinels of climate change. Recent studies of polar and glacial lakes, as well as subglacial environments, have shed light on how these ecosystems function and on the role they play in nutrient cycling.

Observed changes in pan-arctic cold-season minimum monthly river discharge
A.K. Rennermalm et al. Climate Dynamics (2010) 35(6):923-939. Recent changes in pan-arctic land-surface hydrology may significantly affect ecosystems and the built environment. This study provides the first synthesis of spatially distributed cold-season low-flow trends in the pan-arctic and indicates that widespread changes in pan-arctic subsurface hydrology are occurring.

Observing the scars of the Arctic thaw
J. Qiu, Nature News, June 30, 2009. Ecologist Breck Bowden talks about the consequences of thawing permafrost in Alaska.

Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring
J.M. Karlsson et al. Environmental Research Letters (2011) 6(1):014015. This study identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems.

An overview of effects of climate change on selected Arctic freshwater and anadromous fishes
J.D. Reist et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):381-387. Arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species will respond to the various effects of climate change in many ways. For wide-ranging species, many of which are key components of northern aquatic ecosystems and fisheries, there is a large range of possible responses.

Perception of change in freshwater in remote resource-dependent Arctic communities
L. Alessa et al. Global Environmental Change (2008) 18(1):153-164. This paper provides empirical evidence to support existing anecdotal studies regarding the mechanisms by which human communities become vulnerable to rapid changes in freshwater resources on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Authors discuss the role of collective knowledge, through the transmission of knowledge from elders to subsequent generations, in aiding the development of a community's ability to note and respond to changes in critical natural resources.

Permafrost degradation and ecological changes associated with a warming climate in central Alaska
M.T. Jorgenson et al. Climatic Change (2001) 48(4):551-579. Studies from 1994-1998 on the Tanana Flats in central Alaska reveal that permafrost degradation is widespread and rapid, causing large shifts in ecosystems from birch forests to fens and bogs.

Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions
T.P. Barnett et al. Nature (2005) 438:303-309. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans.

Principles of conserving the Arctic's biodiversity
Chapter 10 (pages 539-596) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Climate change will result in changes in the productivity of ecosystems through photosynthesis and changes in the rates of decomposition. The balance between these two major processes will, to a large extent, determine the future nature of the arctic environment. (PDF 1.94 MB)

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration
J. Battin et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 2007. Throughout the world, efforts are under way to restore watersheds, but restoration planning rarely accounts for future climate change.

Prospects for sustaining freshwater biodiversity in the 21st century: Linking ecosystem structure and function
D. Dudgeon. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2010) 2(5-6):422-430. A higher proportion of freshwater species are threatened to extinction than their terrestrial or marine counterparts. Anthropocene trajectories of rising human population growth and water consumption will be exacerbated by climate change impacts and consequential environmental alterations which, in combination with existing stressors, will lead to further extinctions.

Recruitment of pelagic fish in an unstable climate: Studies in Sweden's four largest lakes
P. Nyberg et al. Ambio (2001) 30(8):559-564. It is crucial for fish fry in temperate regions to hatch early in the growth season to survive and achieve large size before winter. Autumn spawners will have difficulties in adapting to global warming.

Reduction in areal extent of high-latitude wetlands in response to permafrost thaw
C.A. Avis et al. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(7):444-448. Wetlands take up and store carbon, and release carbon dioxide and methane through the decomposition of organic matter. More than 50% of wetlands are located in the high northern latitudes, where permafrost also prevails and exerts a strong control on wetland hydrology. Permafrost degradation is linked to changes in Arctic lakes. Here, the authors use a global climate model to examine the influence of permafrost thaw on the prevalence of high-latitude northern wetlands, under four emissions scenarios.

Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic
A. Bring, G. Destouni. Ambio (2011) 40(4):361-369. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff.

The role of climate in shaping zooplankton communities of shallow lakes
M. Gyllström et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2005) 50(6):2008-2021. This study analyzed data from 81 shallow European lakes, which were sampled for combined effects of climatic, physical, and chemical features of food-web interactions, with a specific focus on zooplankton biomass and community structure. Total phosphorus generally was the most important predictor of zooplankton biomass and community structure. Climate was the next most important predictor and acted mainly through its effect on pelagic zooplankton taxa.

Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge
T.H. Syed. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010) 107(42):17916-17921. Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth's water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist.

Satellite remote sensing classification of thaw lakes and drained thaw lake basins on the North Slope of Alaska
R.C. Frohn et al. Remote Sensing of Environment (2005) 97(1):116-126. Continued research in the analysis of thaw lakes and drained thaw lake basins (DTLBs) is crucial to our understanding of the global carbon cycle, atmospheric methane concentrations, heat flow, and climate change.

Scientist measures an overlooked greenhouse gas
NPR's "All Things Considered," September 10, 2007. As global temperatures rise, permafrost thaws. Ponds and lakes form in the depressions left behind by melting chunks of ice in the ground. In the bottoms of ponds and lakes, bacteria feed on the carbon that previously had been frozen underground and burp it out as methane. Scientist Katey Walter, who teaches at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, says that methane is being released from lakes in the far north—Alaska, Siberia, and elsewhere—at a far greater rate than anyone has estimated.

Shallow lakes—microcosms of change
A. Larsen. Alaska Park Science (2010) 9(1):32. Wetlands occupy almost half of Alaska and provide habitat for moose to feed, for birds to nest, and for beaver and muskrat to build lodges. It is in these largely pristine systems where scientists are seeing the first signs of climate change. These changes appear to be related to global warming, and scientists predict that these systems will show some of the greatest impacts of climate change.

Siberia losing lakes at alarming rate
NPR's "All Things Considered," June 2, 2005. A new study finds that more than 1,000 lakes in the Arctic region of Siberia have disappeared or shrunk dramatically over the past 30 years. The region has been getting markedly warmer. Human activities are thought to be partly responsible.

Source drinking water challenges: Changes to an Arctic tundra lake
Center for Climate and Health Bulletin No. 2, 2009. Blooms of organic material have in the past been observed in the source water lake in Point Hope, but conditions have been extreme over the past two years. If warm temperatures continue, organic blooms will become a reoccurring problem for Point Hope and other communities that depend on tundra lakes for their drinking water supply. (PDF 1.57 MB)

Spitsbergen landscape under 20th century climate change: Sørkapp Land
W. Ziaja. Ambio (2004) 33(6):295-299. The principal aim of this paper is to outline the reaction of a middle-sized region of the European Arctic landscape to climate change during the 20th century. Climatic change influences all elements of the Arctic landscape of Svalbard, but the most important for landscape transformation are changes resulting from deglaciation.

State of the world's freshwater ecosystems: Physical, chemical, and biological changes
S.R. Carpenter et al. Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2011) DOI:10.1146/annurev-environ-021810-094524. Surface freshwaters—lakes, reservoirs, and rivers—are among the most extensively altered ecosystems on Earth. Transformations include changes in the morphology of rivers and lakes, hydrology, biogeochemistry of nutrients and toxic substances, ecosystem metabolism and the storage of carbon, loss of native species, expansion of invasive species, and disease emergence. Drivers are climate change, hydrologic flow modification, land-use change, chemical inputs, aquatic invasive species, and harvest.

Streamflow hydrology in the boreal region under the influences of climate and human interference
M. Woo et al. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2008) 363(1501):2249-2258. The effect of climate change on streamflow is explored through hydrological simulation. The example of a Canadian basin under a warming scenario suggests that winter flow will increase, spring freshet dates will advance, but peak flow will decline, as will summer flow due to enhanced evaporation.

Sustainability of high Arctic ponds in a polar desert environment
A. Abnizova, K.L. Young. Arctic (2010) 63(1):67-84. Arctic wetland environments are sensitive to ongoing climate change as seen by the recent loss of lakes and ponds in southern Alaska, Siberia, and northern Ellesmere Island, Canada. To better understand and quantify the hydrologic processes that are leading to the sustainability or demise of high Arctic ponds, a detailed study was conducted during the summer seasons of 2005 and 2006 at Somerset Island, Nunavut.

Trajectory shifts in the arctic and subarctic freshwater cycle
B.J. Peterson et al. Science (2006) 313(5790):1061-1066. Manifold changes in the freshwater cycle of high-latitude lands and oceans have been reported in the past few years. Fresh water may now be accumulating in the Arctic Ocean and will likely be exported southward if and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters into a new high phase.

Variability in greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost thaw ponds
I. Laurion et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2010) 55(1):115-133. Arctic climate change is leading to accelerated melting of permafrost and the mobilization of soil organic carbon pools that have accumulated over thousands of years. The results of this study underscore the increasingly important contribution of permafrost thaw ponds to greenhouse gas emissions and the need to account for local and regional variability in their limnological properties for global estimates.

Vulnerability of alpine stream biodiversity to shrinking glaciers and snowpacks
L.E. Brown et al. Global Change Biology (2007) 13(5):958-966. Climate change poses a considerable threat to the biodiversity of high latitude and altitude ecosystems, with alpine regions across the world already showing responses to warming. However, despite probable hydrological change as alpine glaciers and snowpacks shrink, links between alpine stream biota and reduced meltwater input are virtually unknown.

Vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change: A life cycle perspective using expert judgments
T. McDaniels. Journal of Environmental Management (2010) 91(12):2771-2780. Fraser River sockeye salmon have been the basis for a major commercial fishery shared by Canada and the United States, and an important cultural foundation for many aboriginal groups. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to future climate change.

Warmer winters: Are planktonic algal populations in Sweden's largest lakes affected?
G.A. Weyhenmeyer. Ambio (2001) 30(8):565-571. Winters in Sweden have become warmer in the 1990s, and as a consequence the timing of ice break-up and the growth and decline of spring phytoplankton has shifted, starting earlier.

Warming alters the size spectrum and shifts the distribution of biomass in freshwater ecosystems
G. Yvon-Durocher et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(4):1681-1694. An outdoor freshwater mesocosm experiment was used to determine how warming of ~4°C would affect the size, biomass and taxonomic structure of planktonic communities.

Water, water everywhere: Large lake monitoring in southwest Alaska national parks
J. Shearer. Alaska Park Science (2010) 9(1):44-46. Lakes are not microcosms whose influences stop at the shoreline as early limnologists once thought. They are better described as flow systems comprised of inflowing tributaries, outlets, and interconnected basins functioning as one contiguous system. As such, these systems are integrators of water, energy, nutrients, solutes, and pollutants from the landscape and atmosphere, and thus are ideal indicators of environmental change, especially climate change.

Will northern fish populations be in hot water because of climate change?
S. Sharma et al. Global Change Biology (2007) 13:2052-2064. Predicted increases in water temperature in response to climate change will have large implications for aquatic ecosystems, such as altering thermal habitat and potential range expansion of fish species.

World's largest lake sheds light on ecosystem responses to climate variability
ScienceDaily, February 16, 2011. Siberia's Lake Baikal, the world's oldest, deepest, and largest freshwater lake, has provided scientists with insight into the ways that climate change affects water temperature, which in turn affects life in the lake.

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Marine Biodiversity and Sustainability

Abyssal food limitation, ecosystem structure and climate change
C.R. Smith et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2008) 23(9):518-528. The abyssal seafloor covers more than 50% of the earth and is postulated to be both a reservoir of biodiversity and a source of important ecosystem services. Climate change and human activities (e.g., successful ocean fertilization) will alter patterns of sinking food flux to the deep ocean, substantially impacting the structure, function, and biodiversity of abyssal ecosystems.

Accelerated warming and emergent trends in fisheries biomass yields of the world's large marine ecosystems
K. Sherman et al. Pages 41-79 of UNEP Large Marine Ecosystems Report, United Nations Environment Programme, 2009. Results are presented of a global study of the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the past 25 years on the fisheries yields of 63 large marine ecosystems (LMEs) that annually produce 80% of the world's marine fisheries catches.

The ACIA, climate change and fisheries
W.E. Schrank. Marine Policy (2007) 31(1):5-18. This paper is concerned with those aspects of the ACIA that reflect on Arctic climate change and the fisheries. Chapters of ACIA concerned with present and past Arctic climate change, climate modeling, and marine systems are discussed first, and the discussion of the fisheries chapter then follows.

Amplified acidification of the Arctic Ocean
J.C. Orr et al. Earth and Environmental Science (2009). Climate change will be amplified in the Arctic, leading to reduced sea-ice cover, warming and freshening of surface waters, and changes in vertical stratification. The Arctic Ocean is also undergoing acidification as is the rest of the ocean.

Anomalous conditions in the south-eastern Bering Sea 1997: Linkages among climate, weather, ocean, and biology
J.M. Napp, G.L. Hunt, Jr. Fisheries Oceanography (2001) 10(1):61-68. In 1997, the Bering Sea ecosystem, a productive, high-latitude marginal sea, demonstrated that it responds on very short time scales to atmospheric anomalies. That year, a combination of atmospheric mechanisms produced notable summer weather anomalies over the eastern Bering Sea.

Aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean: Effects of ocean acidification and sea ice melt
M. Yamamoto-Kawai et al. Science (2009) 326(5956):1098-1100. In 2008, surface waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean were undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a relatively soluble form of calcium carbonate found in plankton and invertebrates. Undersaturation was found to be a direct consequence of the recent extensive melting of sea ice in the Canada Basin. Undersaturation will affect both planktonic and benthic calcifying biota and therefore the composition of the Arctic ecosystem.

Arctic biodiversity trends 2010: Selected indicators of change
Report by CAFF International Secretariat, Akureyri, Iceland, May 2010. In 2008, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) passed a resolution expressing "extreme concern" over the impacts of climate change on Arctic indigenous peoples, other communities, and biodiversity. It highlighted the potentially significant consequences of changes in the Arctic. Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010: Selected Indicators of Change provides evidence that some of those anticipated impacts on Arctic biodiversity are already occurring. (PDF 18.57 MB)

Arctic blooms occurring earlier: Phytoplankton peak arising 50 days early, with unknown impacts on marine food chain and carbon cycling
Science Daily, March 3, 2011. Warming temperatures and melting ice in the Arctic may be behind a progressively earlier bloom of a crucial annual marine event, and the shift could hold consequences for the entire food chain and carbon cycling in the region.

Arctic cephalopod distributions and their associated predators
K. Gardiner, T.A. Dick. Polar Research (2010) 29(2):209-227. Cephalopods are key species of the eastern Arctic marine food web, both as prey and predator. Their presence in the diets of Arctic fish, birds, and mammals illustrates their trophic importance. Understanding species distributions and their interactions within the ecosystem is important to the study of a warming Arctic Ocean and the selection of marine protected areas.

Arctic climate change and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic
C.H. Greene et al. Ecology (2008) 89(11):S24-S38. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic.

Arctic fever
B. Barcott, OnEarth, February 23, 2011. In the far north of Alaska, the fragile food web that supports polar bears and humans alike may be starting to unravel.

Arctic fisheries conservation and management: Initial steps of reform of the international legal framework
E.J. Molenaar. Submitted to Yearbook of Polar Law, March 2009. Changes in the arctic climate system extend to arctic marine ecosystems and are likely to create new or expanded fishing opportunities. This article assesses the adequacy of the current international legal and policy framework for Arctic fisheries conservation and management, both substantively and institutionally, in responding to the likely and potential impacts that such new or expanded fishing opportunities could have on target and nontarget species, the broader marine ecosystem, and the livelihoods of indigenous peoples.

Arctic marine ecosystems in an era of rapid climate change
P. Wassmann (ed.) Progress in Oceanography (2011) 90(1-4):1-131. Selected scientists working throughout the pan-Arctic were asked to summarize their information on the ecology of the pan-Arctic. This volume summarizes available investigations done in the various national sectors or in the Arctic Ocean as a whole. It highlights some of the major ecological questions that are common for the pan-Arctic region as well as the ecological implications of climate change. Papers include:

• Consequences of changing sea-ice cover for primary and secondary producers in the European Arctic shelf seas: Timing, quantity, and quality (E. Leu et al.)
• Intra-regional comparison of productivity, carbon flux and ecosystem composition within the northern Barents Sea (M. Reigstad et al.)
• The influence of climate variability and change on the ecosystems of the Barents Sea and adjacent waters: Review and synthesis of recent studies from the NESSAS Project (K.F. Drinkwater)
• Closing the loop—Approaches to monitoring the state of the Arctic Mediterranean during the International Polar Year 2007-2008 (C. Mauritzen et al.)
• Towards recognition of physical and geochemical change in Subarctic and Arctic Seas (E. Carmack, F. McLaughlin)
• Circum-arctic comparison of the hatching season of polar cod Boreogadus saida: A test of the freshwater winter refuge hypothesis (C. Bouchard, L. Fortier)
• Evaluating primary and secondary production in an Arctic Ocean void of summer sea ice: An experimental simulation approach (D. Slagstad et al.)

Arctic marine mammals and climate change
H.P. Huntington, S.E. Moore (eds.) Ecological Applications (2008) 18(Suppl):S1-S174. This special issue of Ecological Applications contains a series of papers, from several perspectives and disciplines, that help identify the species, characteristics, and regions of greatest vulnerability among Arctic marine mammals:

• Climate of the Arctic marine environment (J.E. Walsh)
• The evolution of Arctic marine mammals (C.R. Harington)
• Zooarchaeology and Arctic marine mammal biogeography, conservation, and management (M.S. Murray)
• Climate change and the molecular ecology of Arctic marine mammals (G. O'Corry-Crowe)
• Regional variability in food availability for Arctic marine mammals (B.A. Bluhm, R. Gradinger)
• Quantifying the sensitivity of Arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change (K.L. Laidre et al.)
• Effects of climate change on Arctic marine mammal health (K.A. Burek et al.)
• Marine mammal harvests and other interactions with humans (G.K. Hovelsrud et al.)
• Sustaining a healthy human-walrus relationship in a dynamic environment: Challenges for comanagement (V. Metcalf, M. Robards)
• Arctic marine mammals and climate change: Impacts and resilience (S.E. Moore, H.P. Huntington)
• Conservation of Arctic marine mammals faced with climate change (T.J. Ragen et al.)

Arctic marine strategic plan
Arctic Council, November 2004. This strategic plan was conceived at a meeting of the Arctic Council in Inari, Finland, in 2002. Arctic Council Ministers signed a declaration recognizing that "...existing and emerging activities in the Arctic warrant a more coordinated and integrated strategic approach to address the challenges of the Arctic coastal and marine environment...." A brochure is also available.

Arctic marine synthesis: Atlas of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas
M.A. Smith, Audubon Alaska and Oceana, 2010. This atlas provides a holistic look at the dynamic Arctic Ocean ecosystem. It is designed as a tool for scientists and policymakers in setting conservation priorities and designing balanced management plans in this sensitive Arctic region.

The Arctic Ocean Review: Phase 1 report (2009-2011)
Report by Protection of Arctic Marine Environment (PAME), Arctic Council, 2011. The overall objective of the AOR is to provide guidance to the Arctic Council Ministers as a means to strengthen governance in the Arctic through a cooperative, coordinated, and integrated approach to the management of the Arctic marine environment.

Arctic Ocean synthesis: Analysis of climate change impacts in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas with strategies for future research
Report by the Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, December 2008. Beginning at Bering Strait, the Chukchi Sea is the gateway (or pulse-point) into the Arctic where variation in climate will have impacts on the complex interplay of water masses of Pacific origin with those of the central Arctic Ocean, its marginal seas, and the Atlantic Ocean.

Arctic sea ice trends and narwhal vulnerability
K.L. Laidre, M.P. Heide-Jørgensen. Biological Conservation (2005) 121(4):509-517. The narwhal (Monodon monoceros) in Baffin Bay occupies a habitat where reversed (increasing) regional sea ice trends have been detected over 50 years. The authors used a combination of long-term narwhal satellite tracking data and remotely sensed sea ice concentrations to detect localized habitat trends and examine potential vulnerability.

Arctic sea partially closed to fishing
NPR's "Day to Day," February 6. 2009. The Arctic ice pack is breaking up. Bad news for the global climate, but good news for commercial fishing fleets looking for untapped sources of wild seafood. Not so fast. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council voted to close the Arctic waters off northern Alaska to fishing. This is in effect until scientists know more about the health and sustainability of the fish living under the now-retreating ice pack.

The Arctic's 'hidden ocean'
NPR's "Morning Edition," September 28, 2005. The Arctic Ocean is one of the most unexplored places on Earth. It's also changing rapidly. In the summer, sea ice is melting more quickly than usual, due to rising air temperatures. These changes could have serious consequences for Arctic ecosystems. An expedition in the summer of 2005 set out to survey the biological diversity of the Arctic Ocean, and what species are at risk.

Arctic water flow speeding up
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, April 6, 2006. One of Siberia's largest rivers is dumping about 10% more fresh water into the Arctic today than it was some 60 years ago, thanks to the complex effects of increased snowfall, melting permafrost, and changing weather.

Are phytoplankton blooms occurring earlier in the Arctic?
M. Kahru et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(4):1733-1739. Time series of satellite-derived surface chlorophyll-a concentration in 1997-2009 were used to examine for trends in the timing of the annual phytoplankton bloom maximum. Significant trends towards earlier phytoplankton blooms were detected in about 11% of the area of the Arctic Ocean with valid chlorophyll-a data.

As whales head north, Arctic biologists play catch-up on climate change
J. Kay, The Daily Climate, March 23, 2010. With climate change transforming the Arctic, biologists are scrambling to understand the impact on gray whales and other creatures living in the region.

Aspen Institute Arctic Commission Roundtable
Video from a March 16, 2011, roundtable featuring opening remarks by NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco and discussion with Aspen Commissioners and Working Group delegates. Also available is a video overview of the Commission on Arctic Climate Change.

Atlantic snake pipefish (Entelurus aequoreus) extends its northward distribution range to Svalbard (Arctic Ocean)
D. Fleischer et al. Polar Biology (2006) 30(10):1359-1362. Ecological forecasts predict the immigration of boreal species into Arctic waters as one consequence of rising sea temperatures. Here, the authors report the finding of Atlantic snake pipefish off the western coast of Spitsbergen at 79°N in August 2006. This syngnathid fish species, which was presumed to be confined to waters south of Iceland, has dramatically increased in population size in its core distribution area in the northeastern Atlantic since 2002.

Atlas of oceans: An ecological survey of underwater life
J. Farndon, Yale University Press, 2011, 256 pages. Readers are introduced to the diverse array of creatures that inhabit the oceans and seas, and to the nature of the problems they face. Special features focus on the threats to particular animals, plants, and habitats, as well as on specific issues such as overfishing, global warming, and pollution. The book also includes success stories, recommendations for what can be done to preserve ocean ecosystems, and a complete rundown of the most endangered species of marine life.

Basin-scale climatic and anthropogenic impacts on the dynamics of marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea
F. Köster et al. Global Change Newsletter (2001) 46:16-18. The authors review recent findings from several Baltic-wide research projects contributing to the GLOBEC Cod and Climate Change program, providing working hypotheses on how climatic and anthropogenic forcing affects biological populations in the Baltic Sea.

Basin-scale coherence in phenology of shrimps and phytoplankton in the North Atlantic Ocean
P. Koeller et al. Science (2009) 324(5928):791-793. Climate change could lead to mismatches between the reproductive cycles of marine organisms and their planktonic food. The authors tested this hypothesis by comparing shrimp (Pandalus borealis) egg hatching times and satellite-derived phytoplankton bloom dynamics throughout the North Atlantic.

Benthic community response to ice algae and phytoplankton in Ny Ålesund, Svalbard
K.W. McMahon et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2006) 310:1-14. In the Arctic, oceanic primary production is partitioned between ice algae and phytoplankton. Ice algae live both attached to the bottom of sea ice and within the ice column and bloom during spring, while phytoplankton live in the water column and bloom after the ice melts in early summer. Accordingly, sea ice plays a crucial role in mediating many of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that structure the composition of these dominant primary producers.

Bering Climate
Webpage sponsored by NOAA's Fisheries-Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) Program.

The Bering Sea—A dynamic food web perspective
K. Aydin, F. Mueter. Deep Sea Research II (2007) 54(23-26):2501-2525. While recent decades of ocean observation have highlighted possible links between climate and species fluctuations, mechanisms linking climate and population fluctuations are only beginning to be understood. This paper examines the food webs of Bering Sea ecosystems with particular reference to some key shifts in widely distributed, abundant fish populations and their links with climate variation.

Bering Sea changes baffle scientists
BBC News, January 7, 1999. BBC environmental correspondent Alex Kirby reports on the conclusions of an international workshop on the problems of the Bering Sea.

Biodiversity as an index of regime shift in the eastern Bering Sea
G.R. Hoff. Fishery Bulletin (2006) 104(2):226-237. Data collected from an annual groundfish survey of the eastern Bering Sea shelf from 1975 to 2002 were used to estimate biomass and biodiversity indexes for two fish guilds: flatfish and roundfish. The trends in biodiversity indexes from this study correlated strongly with the regime shift reported for the late 1970s and 1980s.

Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services
H. Mooney. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2009) 1(1):46-54. Stresses imposed by climate change in the coming years will require extraordinary adaptation. We need to track the changing status of ecosystems, deepen our understanding of the biological underpinnings for ecosystem service delivery, and develop new tools and techniques for maintaining and restoring resilient biological and social systems.

The biological response in the sea to climatic changes
D.H. Gushing, R.R. Dickson. Advances in Marine Biology (1977) 14:1-122. During the thirties and early forties there was a general warming in the northern hemisphere that was documented in changes in the fish stocks and the spread of organisms to the north and in the profound changes throughout the ecosystem noticed in the western English Channel between 1926 and 1935. These trends of change reversed between 1966 and 1972, and this period has been named the Russell cycle.

Bloom dynamics in early opening waters of the Arctic Ocean
J-E Tremblay et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2006) 51(2):900-912. In much of the Arctic Ocean, the polar night and ice cover impose severe constraints on phytoplankton production. The duration of the production period is sensitive to climate and the extent, thickness, and seasonal melt dynamics of sea ice, but processes that control the timing and magnitude of organic matter production are poorly understood.

Blooms of Arctic plankton occurring far earlier as sea ice retreats
Yale Environment 360, March 7, 2011. The steady disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is causing annual blooms of phytoplankton to occur as much as 50 days earlier now than in the late 1990s, a major shift that could have profound consequences for the Arctic Ocean food chain.

Bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) seasonal selection of sea ice
S.H. Ferguson et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2010) 411:285-297. The authors used satellite tracking data from 27 bowhead whales of the Eastern Canada-West Greenland population to test for movement and habitat selection of the highly variable sea ice landscape that encompasses near-complete coverage in winter to near-complete absence in summer.

Brackish meltponds on Arctic sea ice—A new habitat for marine metazoans
M. Kramer, R. Kiko. Polar Biology (2011) 34(4):603-608. Meltponds on Arctic sea ice have previously been reported to be devoid of marine metazoans due to freshwater conditions. The predominantly dark, frequently also green and brownish meltponds observed in the Central Arctic in summer 2007 hinted to brackish conditions and considerable amounts of algae, possibly making the habitat suitable for marine metazoans.

Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?
J. Taucher, A. Oschlies. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) doi:10.1029/2010GL045934. A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change.

Carbon cycling by seafloor communities on the eastern Beaufort Sea shelf
P.E. Renaud et al. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2007) 349(2):248-260. The study region is strongly influenced by the Mackenzie River, and ongoing climate change is likely to result in altered productivity regimes, changes in quality and quantity of available food, and higher levels of sediment deposition. Impacts of these events on benthic community structure and function will likely have repercussions throughout the ecosystem.

Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic
G. Beaugrand et al. Ecology Letters (2008) 11(11):1157-1168. Marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels.

Census of marine zooplankton: A new global survey of marine biodiversity
A. Bucklin et al. Global Change Newsletter (2004) 60:8-10. The Census of Marine Life (CoML) is surveying marine biodiversity to gain an accurate understanding of the diversity, geographic distribution, and abundance of marine species—from pole to pole, coastal estuaries to open ocean, and surface to abyss. This comprehensive information is critical for observing, measuring, and understanding the impacts of global change.

Change in feeding ecology and trophic dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the central Gulf of Alaska in relation to climate events
M. Kaeriyama et al. Fisheries Oceanography (2004) 13(3):197-207. Future monitoring of the ocean feeding ecology of Pacific salmon could help us better understand inter- and intraspecific interactions that occur in this region, and how climate change affects those interactions.

Changes in spawning stock structure strengthen the link between climate and recruitment in a heavily fished cod (Gadus morhua) stock
G. Ottersen et al. Fisheries Oceanography (2006) 15(3):230-243. The Arcto-Norwegian (or North-east Arctic) cod stock in the Barents Sea is now the largest stock of Atlantic cod. Recruitment to this stock has varied extensively during the past 60 years. There is evidence for fluctuations in climate, particularly sea temperature, being a main cause for this variability.

Changes in the timing of otolith zone formation in North Sea cod from otolith records: An early indicator of climate-induced temperature stress?
R.S. Millner et al. Marine Biology (2010) 158(1):21-30. The authors examine the seasonal variation in otolith increment formation in southern North Sea cod as a means of monitoring how changes in sea temperature over the past 20 years have affected cod in the wild.

Changing climate changing Alaska's fisheries?
Alaska Seas & Coasts, Volume 5, May 2008. Warmer water means fish, which are dependent on favorable temperatures, must move. Some fishing communities that rely on these resources may suffer, while others may find new opportunities. Are our fishery management systems flexible enough to respond to major changes in ranges of fish and shellfish?

Changing climate means changing oceans
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," January 21, 2011. Scientists who study the oceans say the effects of climate change are already being seen in the world's oceans. From acidification and warming temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice loss, Ira Flatow and guests look at how the oceans are changing with changes in climate.

Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast
L.A. Rogers et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2011) 108(5):1961-1966. The authors estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-year time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast.

Climate change and marine plankton
G.C. Hays et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2005) 20(6):337-344. The authors review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution, and phenology over recent decades.

Climate change and the migratory pattern for Norwegian spring-spawning herring: Implications for management
E.H. Sissener, T. Bjørndal. Marine Policy (2005) 29(4):299-309. Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) is a migratory fish stock, and the migratory pattern has changed several times. There seems to be a connection between altering climatic conditions and the size of fish, year-class strength, and the migratory pattern.

Climate change and the oceans
Video of a lecture presented as part of Northwestern University's Science Outreach Series: "Global Warming—A Threat to Biodiversity" in October 2005. Presenter Richard A. Feely is director of the Pacific Marine Environmental Lab, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (31:47)

Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach
I. Omann et al. Ecological Economics (2009) 69(1):24-31. Based on an analysis using the DPSIR framework, this paper discusses some of the important socioeconomic driving forces of climate change, with a focus on energy use and transportation. The paper also analyzes observed and potential changes of climate and the pressures they exert on biodiversity, the changes in biodiversity, the resulting impacts on ecosystem functions, and possible policy responses.

Climate change considerations
Chapter 4 of An Evaluation of the Science Needs to Inform Decisions on Outer Continental Shelf Energy Development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska, L. Holland-Bartels, B. Pierce (eds.), Circular 1370, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 2011.

Climate change in the southeastern Bering Sea: Impacts on pollock stocks and implications for the oscillating control hypothesis
K.O. Coyle et al. Fisheries Oceanography (2011) 20(2):139-156. Observations presented here indicate the need for revision of the oscillating control hypothesis (OCH) to account for shifts in energy flow through differing food-web pathways due to warming and cooling on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf.

Climate change shifting southern fish north
Alaska Public Radio's "Alaska News Nightly," July 11, 2011. Alaska fishermen have noticed southern species moving into northern waters in recent years. Now research by American and Canadian fisheries biologists shows climate change is causing the same situation in the Pacific Northwest.

Climate projections for selected large marine ecosystems
M. Wang et al. Journal of Marine Systems (2010) 79(3-4):258-266. In preparation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), modeling centers from around the world carried out sets of global climate simulations under various emission scenarios. For this paper, the authors evaluated the models' 20th-century hindcasts of selected variables relevant to several large marine ecosystems and examined 21st-century projections by a subset of these models under the A1B (middle range) emission scenario.

Climate-related variability in abundance and reproduction of euphausiids in the northern Gulf of Alaska in 1998-2003
A.I. Pinchuk et al. Progress in Oceanography (2008) 77(2-3):203-216. Interannual variability in abundance of the dominant euphausiids ("krill") was studied in the northern Gulf of Alaska during the production season from 1998 to 2003.

Climate warming and pikeperch year-class catches in the Baltic Sea
Z. Pekcan-Hekim et al. Ambio (2011) 40(5):447-456. The authors aimed to study the effects of changing temperature conditions on pikeperch fisheries and distribution based on commercial catch data from the period 1980-2008 in the Finnish coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.

Climatic and biological forcing of the vertical flux of biogenic particles under seasonal Arctic sea ice
M. Fortier et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2002) 225:1-16. Ice algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and the vertical fluxes of chloropigments and particulate organic carbon (POC) were monitored from May to June/July of 1992, 1994, and 1995 under the ice of Barrow Strait (Canadian Arctic Archipelago). The analysis suggests that strong and early under-ice fluxes of biogenic carbon in spring may become more frequent under the climatic conditions anticipated by general circulation models.

Climatic forcing and phytoplankton phenology over the subarctic North Pacific from 1998 to 2006, as observed from ocean color data
K. Sasaoka et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL048299. The authors investigated phenological changes in phytoplankton in the subarctic North Pacific and the relationship to climatic forcing variability from 1998 to 2006, using ocean color satellite data combined with climatological data.

Coastal and marine ecosystems and global climate change: Potential effects on U.S. resources
Report prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, August 2002. This is the eighth in a series of Pew Center reports examining the potential impacts of climate change on the U.S. environment. It details the likely impacts of climate change over the next century on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems, including estuaries, coral reefs, and the open ocean. (PDF 643 KB)

Comparison of zooplankton vertical migration in an ice-free and a seasonally ice-covered Arctic fjord: An insight into the influence of sea ice cover on zooplankton behavior
M.I. Wallace et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2010) 55(2):831-845. In this study, the authors report on results obtained from the deployment of autonomous collecting devices to determine the nature and extent of zooplankton migratory behavior at Kongsfjorden and Rijpfjorden, two fjords in the Svalbard Archipelago. Data were obtained continuously and at high levels of temporal resolution over almost two years, from September 2006 to August 2008.

Current State & Trends Assessment: Polar Systems, Chapter 25: Polar Systems by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 
Because of polar amplification of climate change, the ecological impacts of warming are evident earliest and most clearly at high latitudes. In a region of near-pristine wilderness, relationships between ecosystems, species, and environment are more clearly defined than in populated regions where human influences can mask these relationships. This chapter emphasizes the ecological processes that most directly influence human well-being within and outside polar regions. (PDF 994 KB)

Decreasing ice coverage will reduce the breeding success of Baltic grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) females
M. Jüssi et al. Ambio (2008) 37(2):80-85. Because indices of life-time net reproductive rate (pup survival) and pup quality (weaning weight and health) were more auspicious on ice as compared with land, diminishing ice fields will lower the fitness of Baltic grey seal females and substantially increase the risk for quasi-extinction.

Diet changes of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in Pavlof Bay associated with climate changes in the Gulf of Alaska between 1980 and 1995
M-S Yang. Fishery Bulletin (2004) 102(2):400-405. This study suggests that there were substantial differences between the diets of Pacific cod in Pavlof Bay between the early 1980s and 1995 and that this change was probably due to the climate shift from cold to warm in the Gulf of Alaska.

Different responses of two common Arctic macrobenthic species (Macoma balthica and Monoporeia affinis) to phytoplankton and ice algae: Will climate change impacts be species specific?
M-Y Sun et al. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2009) 376(2):110-121. Recent reductions in sea ice cover and thickness in the Arctic will lead to changes in food supplies for benthic consumers. The authors experimentally assessed responses of two common Arctic macrobenthic species, Macoma balthica (Bivalvia) and Monoporeia affinis (Crustacea) from Kotzebue Sound (Alaska) to varying food materials (phytoplankton and ice algae).

Dominant diatom species in the Canada Basin in summer 2003, a reported serious melting season
S. Zheng et al. Polar Record (2011) 47(3):244-261. During the second Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in summer 2003, sea ice cores and the underlying water were sampled from seven stations in the pack ice zone of the Canada Basin and were examined with a phase contrast microscope. A total of 102 and 78 algal species were identified for the ice cores and the underlying water, respectively, ranking in the middle range among the surveys of the Arctic Ocean up to the present despite seasonal variability.

Earth's acid test
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, March 9, 2011 As the oceans rapidly grow more acidic, scientists are scrambling to discover how marine life is likely to react.

Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change
E. Post et al. Science (2009) 325(5946):1355-1358. Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity.

Ecological impacts of climate change
National Academy of Sciences, 2009. This booklet is based on the report Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2008), by the Committee on Ecological Impacts of Climate Change. (PDF 8.14 MB)

Ecology of sea lice parasitic on farmed and wild fish
M.J. Costello. Trends in Parasitology (2006) 22(10):475-483. Sea lice, especially Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus spp., have the greatest economic impact of any parasite in salmonid fish farming and are also a threat to wild salmonids. Louse development rates are strongly dependent on temperature, and increasing mean sea temperatures are likely to increase infestation pressure on farms and wild fish, as well as affecting the geographical distribution of hosts and parasites.

Ecoregion: Polar/subpolar
This fact sheet published by the U.S. Global Change Research Program identifies unique characteristics of the polar and subpolar regions that may be affected by climate change. (PDF 822 KB)

Ecosystem oceanography for global change in fisheries
P.M. Cury et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2008) 23(6):338-346. Overexploitation and climate change are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems, such as higher variability in fish recruitment and shifts in species dominance. An ecosystem-based approach to fisheries attempts to address these effects by integrating populations, food webs, and fish habitats at different scales.

The effect of sea-ice loss on beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) in West Greenland
M.P. Heide-Jørgensen et al. Polar Research (2010) 29(2):198-208. These results, based on nearly 30 years of dedicated survey effort, are among the first available evidence showing a shift in distribution of an Arctic cetacean in response to changes in sea-ice coverage.

Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua
N. Mieszkowska et al. Chapter 3, Advances in Marine Biology (2009) 56:213-273. During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, the authors describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging.

Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for Arctic freshwater and anadromous species
J.D. Reist et al. Ambio (2006) 35(7):402-410. Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers.

Effects of climatic variability on three fishing economies in high-latitude regions: Implications for fisheries policies
J.R. McGoodwin. Marine Policy (2007) 31(1):40-55. Research exploring how climatic variability impacts fishing economies in high-latitude regions was conducted in south-central Iceland and southwest Alaska during 2001-2004. Important differences were found regarding the economic impacts of climatic variations in the commercial economies in Iceland and Alaska, versus in the native subsistence economies in Alaska.

Effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on phytoplankton communities and the biological carbon pump
U. Riebesell et al. Global Change Newsletter (2001) 47:12-15. One of the most prominent anthropogenic perturbations of environmental conditions, the progressive increase in atmospheric CO2, affects the marine biota in various ways: indirectly through rising mean global temperatures causing increased surface ocean stratification, and directly through changes in surface ocean carbonate chemistry.

Effects of land use, urbanization, and climate variability on coastal eutrophication in the Baltic Sea
C. Savage et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2010) 55(3):1033-1046. Climate variability has become more important as a factor influencing coastal eutrophication in recent decades, explaining 14% of the variance in the algal data since 1975. Both urban and agricultural sources of nutrients have degraded water quality, illustrating the need for cooperation between stakeholders at regional levels to achieve "good ecological status" in the Baltic coastal environment.

Effects of past, present, and future ocean carbon dioxide concentrations on the growth and survival of larval shellfish
S.C. Talmage, C.J. Gobler. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010) 107(40):17246-17251. The ocean acidification that has occurred during the past two centuries may be inhibiting the development and survival of larval shellfish and contributing to global declines of some bivalve populations.

The effects of temperature increases on a temperate phytoplankton community: A mesocosm climate change scenario
M.K. Lassen et al. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2010) 383(1):79-88. This study indicates that a part of the relationship between temperature and spring bloom timing stems from a temperature-induced change in phytoplankton algal physiology.

Evaluating disease trends in marine ecosystems
PLoS Biology (2004) 2(4):doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0020119. With recent studies suggesting that disease rates throughout the food chain have increased over the past 30 years—and are expected to increase even more, thanks to global climate change—prospects for protecting marine ecosystems depend on understanding the causes and nature of these disease outbreaks.

Exopolymer alteration of physical properties of sea ice and implications for ice habitability and biogeochemistry in a warmer Arctic
C. Krembs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2011) 108(9):3653-3658. Following discovery that sea ice contains an abundance of gelatinous extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), the authors examined the effects of algal EPS on the microstructure and salt retention of ice grown from saline solutions containing EPS from a culture of the sea-ice diatom Melosira arctica.

Exploring ecological changes in Cook Inlet beluga whale habitat though traditional and local ecological knowledge of contributing factors for population decline
B.T.G. Carter, E.A. Nielsen. Marine Policy (2011) 35(3):299-308. This study documented traditional and local ecological knowledge of Alaska Native subsistence hunters and fishers and commercial fishers through participatory research to explore ecological changes in Cook Inlet over time and to identify potential factors impacting this beluga whale population. Study results identified potential environmental and climate change factors that may indicate an ecosystem regime shift in the Cook Inlet region.

Faces of Climate Change
Alaska Sea Grant Marine Advisory Program, 2011. These three short videos showcase the dramatic changes in Alaska's marine ecosystems through interviews with scientists and Alaska Natives. They were produced in partnership with Alaska Ocean Observing System, Alaska Marine Conservation Council, and COSEE Alaska.

• Introduction to Climate Change (MP4 5:55 min)
• Disappearing Sea Ice (MP4 10:45 min)
• Life on the Ice (MP4 7:33 min)

Fish get hooked on cooler waters
N. Towie, Nature News, May 12, 2005. Fish are shifting their homes northwards, according to an analysis of North Sea populations. The authors warn that climate change is probably to blame for the move, which could drive some commercially fished species out of the sea completely.

Fisheries and aquaculture
Chapter 13 (pages 691-780) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. This chapter identifies the possible effects of climate change on selected fish stocks and fisheries in the Arctic. Arctic fisheries of selected species are described in the northeast Atlantic (i.e., the Barents and Norwegian seas), the waters around Iceland and Greenland, the waters off northeastern Canada, and the Bering Sea. (PDF 2.33 MB)

Fisheries and climate
K.M. Brander. Pages 483-490 of Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, 2nd edition, J.H. Steele et al., eds., Academic Press, 2009. Poleward distribution shifts have occurred since the 1960s and can be attributed to the effects of anthropogenic climate change with a high degree of confidence. These changes may reduce the resilience of exploited stocks, although climate change may also increase productivity in some cases.

Fluctuations in circumpolar seabird populations linked to climate oscillations
D.B. Irons et al. Global Change Biology (2008) 14:1455-1463. Negative population trends in seabirds presumably indicate the alteration of underlying food webs. Hence, similar widespread fluctuations in response to climate shifts are likely for other ecosystem components (marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates).

Food security and marine capture fisheries: Characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives
S.M. Garcia, A.A. Rosenberg. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2010) 365(1554):2869-2880. Looking towards 2050, the question is how fisheries governance, and the national and international policy and legal frameworks within which it is nested, will ensure a sustainable harvest, maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and adapt to climate change.

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem
P. Wassmann et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(2):1235-1249. This is a review of the published literature on the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid-2009.

Foraging distributions of little auks (Alle alle) across the Greenland Sea: Implications of present and future Arctic climate change
N. Karnovsky et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2010) 415:283-293. The Arctic is undergoing widespread warming. In order to understand the impact of climate change on Arctic marine food webs, the authors studied the at-sea distribution of foraging little auks in contrasting conditions of the Greenland Sea.

Foraminiferal faunal evidence of twentieth-century Barents Sea warming
L.J. Wilson et al. Holocene (2011) 21(4):527-537. This study aims to reconstruct the climatic changes of the Barents Sea based on benthic foraminifera over approximately the past 1400 years at the decadal to subdecadal scale. Most notably, a series of highly fluctuating temperatures are observed over the past century.

Forecasting the consequences of climate-driven shifts in human behavior on cetaceans
S.E. Alter et al. Marine Policy (2010) 34(5):943-954. While climate change is expected to affect cetaceans primarily via loss of habitat and changes in prey availability, additional consequences may result from climate-driven shifts in human behaviors and economic activities. For example, increases in shipping, oil and gas exploration, and fishing due to the loss of Arctic sea ice are highly likely to exacerbate acoustic disturbance, ship strikes, bycatch, and prey depletion for Arctic cetaceans.

Future climate-driven shifts in distribution of Calanus finmarchicus
G. Reygondeau, G. Beaugrand. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(2):756-766. Calanus finmarchicus is a key-structural species of the North Atlantic polar biome. The species plays an important trophic role in subpolar and polar ecosystems as a grazer of phytoplankton and as a prey for higher trophic levels such as the larval stages of many fish species. Here, the authors used a recently developed ecological niche model to assess the ecological niche of C. finmarchicus and characterize its spatial distribution.

Future climate of the North Pacific Ocean
J.E. Overland, M. Wang. Eos (2007) 88(16):178,182. Major changes in species distribution and abundance in North Pacific marine ecosystems are often correlated with climatic shifts in the twentieth century. Species affected in the past include halibut in the Gulf of Alaska, sardine near Japan, and various species along the Oregon/California coast.

The future of arctic conservation
The Circle (2009), Issue 2. The Circle is published quarterly by the WWF International Arctic Programme. This edition of The Circle focuses on arctic conservation in times of rapid climate change. (PDF 2.89 MB)

The future of the oceans past
J.B.C. Jackson. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2010) 365(1558):3765-3778. Today, overfishing, pollution, and increases in greenhouse gases are causing great changes to ocean environments and ecosystems. Some of these changes are potentially reversible on very short time scales, but warming and ocean acidification will intensify before they decline even with immediate reduction in emissions.

Glaciers as a source of ancient and labile organic matter to the marine environment
E. Hood et al. Nature (2009) 462:1044-1047. Glaciers and ice sheets represent the second largest reservoir of water in the global hydrologic system. The authors suggest that climatically driven changes in glacier volume could alter the age, quantity, and reactivity of dissolved organic matter (DOM) entering coastal oceans.

Global change in marine ecosystems
S.J. Hawkins, L.B. Firth (eds.) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2011) 400(1-2):1-328. The theme of this special edition of JEMBE is changing marine and coastal ecosystems worldwide. Papers relating to northern regions include:

• Impacts of climate change in a global hotspot for temperate marine biodiversity and ocean warming (T. Wernberg et al.)
• Latitudinal variations in the physiology of marine gammarid amphipods (N.M. Whiteley et al.)
• Kelp distribution in the northwest Atlantic Ocean under a changing climate (A. Merzouka, L.E. Johnson)
• Temporal variability in the benthos: Does the sea floor function differently over time? (C.L.J. Frid)
• Variation among northeast Atlantic regions in the responses of zooplankton to climate change: Not all areas follow the same path (N. McGinty et al.)
• Spreading the risk: Small-scale body temperature variation among intertidal organisms and its implications for species persistence (M.W. Denny et al.)
• Community ecology in a warming world: The influence of temperature on interspecific interactions in marine systems (R.L. Kordas et al.)
• Exploring mechanisms linking temperature increase and larval phenology: The importance of variance effects (L. Giménez)
• Elevated seawater CO2 concentrations impair larval development and reduce larval survival in endangered northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana) (R.N. Crim et al.)
• A framework to study the context-dependent impacts of marine invasions (M.S. Thomsen et al.)

Global fish production and climate change
K.M. Brander. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2007) 104(50):19709-10714. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change.

Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches
E. Chassot et al. Ecology Letters (2010) 13(4):495-505. Global primary production appears to be declining, in some part due to climate variability and change, with consequences for the near future fisheries catches.

Global phytoplankton decline over the past century
D.G. Boyce et al. Nature (2010) 466(7306):591-596. Global phytoplankton concentration has declined over the past century, and this decline will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystems, geochemical cycling, ocean circulation, and fisheries.

Global warming: Effects on sea-food security
D. Pauly, W.W.L. Cheung. Sea Around Us Newsletter (2009) 55:1-5. This article discusses steps the authors used to produce a number of papers on the impact of global warming on marine biodiversity and fisheries and to lay a foundation for future contributions.

Global warming increases acidity in Alaska seas
Y. Rosen, Alaska Dispatch, December 6, 2009. Ocean acidification is often called the twin of climate change. Just as increased carbon in the atmosphere triggers effects that change the climate, increased carbon in the atmosphere, when absorbed by the oceans, triggers acidification in the water. The very characteristics that help make Alaskan waters so rich—the cold temperatures that hold more carbon and shallow waters saturated with nutrients—also make them more susceptible to acidification, experts say.

Grey seals do not prevent cod recovery in the Baltic Sea
Science Daily, July 18, 2011. Around ten years ago, the cod stock in the Baltic Sea hit record-low numbers due to overexploitation, oxygen depletion, and decreased salinity. But in recent years, cod numbers have increased due to some good years of cod reproduction, and a fishing management plan with effective regulation of the fisheries. In order to investigate how cod in the Baltic Sea can be affected by grey seals, climate change, and exploitation in the future, researchers made a number of simulations of future scenarios.

The growing human footprint on coastal and open-ocean biogeochemistry
S.C. Doney. Science (2010) 328(5985):1512-1516. Climate change, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, excess nutrient inputs, and pollution in its many forms are fundamentally altering the chemistry of the ocean.

Growth and production of sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) in a high-Arctic fjord, and growth along a climatic gradient (64 to 77°N)
M.E. Blicher et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2007) 341:89-102. This study looks at the ecological role of a benthic species in an Arctic fjord in an attempt to predict possible changes in benthic production in Arctic areas expected to undergo marked climate changes in future decades.

Gunter Weller on global warming and Alaska
D. Cutler. Alaska Business Monthly (2001) 17(9):10. All sectors of the Alaska economy will be affected in one way or another. It seems likely that the Alaska fisheries could be the biggest loser if the present climate trends continue and the predicted global warming occurs.

How do polar marine ecosystems respond to rapid climate change?
O. Schofield et al. Science (2010) 328(5985):1520-1523. Sustained observations at the West Antarctic Peninsula show that in this region, rapid environmental change has coincided with shifts in the food web, from its base up to apex predators. New strategies will be required to gain further insight into how the marine climate system has influenced such changes and how it will do so in the future.

How is global climate change affecting Alaska's marine ecosystems and resources?
Slide presentation by the Alaska Marine Conservation Council, 2008. Alaska's fisheries, which are commercially important (providing half of the US domestic catch), and traditional subsistence ways of life will be changing in complex and sometimes uncertain ways as the climate changes. (PDF 4.24 MB)

How will climate change alter fishery governance: Insights from seven international case studies
A. McIlgorm et al. Marine Policy (2010) 34(1):170-177. The case studies reveal governance issues that indicate adaptation will involve more flexible fishery management regimes, schemes for capacity adjustment, catch limitation, and alternative fishing livelihoods for fishers. Where fishery governance systems have been less developed, fisheries are less able to adapt to climate change impacts.

How will increased dinoflagellate:diatom ratios affect copepod egg production? A case study from the Baltic Sea
A. Vehmaa et al. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2011) 401(1-2):134-140. Mild winters are modifying the plankton spring bloom composition so that diatoms are decreasing and dinoflagellates increasing. The authors used two common spring bloom phytoplankton species, a diatom and a dinoflagellate, to study the effects of changing bloom composition on the reproduction of the calanoid copepod Acartia bifilosa Giesbrecht, a dominant species in the northern Baltic Sea.

The human dimensions of marine mammal management in a time of rapid change: Comparing policies in Canada, Finland and the United States
A.L. Lovecraft et al. Marine Policy (2011) 35(4):427-558. This special section addresses marine mammal management in a time of rapid climatic change. It is a series of complementary case studies that (1) examine the social drivers affecting marine mammal conservation and policy implementation in the Arctic, (2) link these cases to established theories and prior scientific work on social change, and (3) identify general principles for the design of policy strategies that can promote positive resilience to changes now experienced in high-latitude regions.

• Putting the US polar bear debate into context: The disconnect between old policy and new problems (C.L. Meek)
• Marine mammal co-management in Canada's Arctic: Knowledge co-production for learning and adaptive capacity (A. Dalea, D. Armitage)
• Co-existence of seals and fisheries? Adaptation of a coastal fishery for recovery of the Baltic grey seal (R. Varjopuro)
• Polar bear management, sport hunting and Inuit subsistence at Clyde River, Nunavut (G.W. Wenzel)
• Adaptive governance and the human dimensions of marine mammal management: Implications for policy in a changing North (C.L. Meek et al.)

Hydrographic changes in Nares Strait (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) in recent decades based on delta 18O profiles of bivalve shells
M.E. Torres et al. Arctic (2011) 64(1):45-58. Nares Strait is one of three main passages of the Canadian Archipelago that channel relatively fresh seawater from the Arctic Ocean through Baffin Bay to the Labrador Sea. The northern end of Nares Strait has been experiencing an increase in freshwater runoff since the mid 1980s, which may reflect changes in circulation and ice formation.

ICESCAPE blog
The ICESCAPE mission, which stands for "Impacts of Climate on Ecosystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment," will investigate the impacts of climate change on the ecology and biogeochemistry of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas along Alaska's northern coast. The NASA mission embarked in June 2010 onboard the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy, the United States' newest and most technologically advanced polar icebreaker.

Ice-shelf collapse, climate change, and habitat loss in the Canadian high Arctic
W.F. Vincent et al. Polar Record (2001) 37(201):133-142. Extensive meltwater lakes occur on the surface of the ice shelf and support a unique microbial food web. The major contraction of these ice-water habitats foreshadows a much broader loss of marine cryo-ecosystems that will accompany future warming in the high Arctic.

The impact of climate change on the world's marine ecosystems
O. Hoegh-Guldberg, J.F. Bruno. Science (2010) 328(5985):1523-1528. Recent studies indicate that rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward conditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation.

Impact of climatic change on the biological production in the Barents Sea
I.H. Ellingsen et al. Climatic Change (2008) 87:155-175. The Barents Sea is a high-latitude ecosystem and is an important nursery and feeding area for commercial fish stocks such as cod, capelin, and herring. There is a large inter-annual variability both in physical and biological conditions in the Barents Sea. Understanding and predicting changes in the system requires insight into the coupled nature of the physical and biological interactions.

Impact of climate variability on marine ecosystems
J. Alheit et al. (eds.) Journal of Marine Systems (2010) 79(3-4):227-436. This issue of Journal of Marine Systems offers several perspectives on the topic of marine ecosystems under climate change. Articles include:

• Introduction to the workshop on impact of climate variability on marine ecosystems: A comparative approach (J. Alheit et al.)
• Impact of climate variability on marine ecosystems: A comparative approach (J.W. Hurrell, C. Deser)
• North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (J.W. Hurrell, C. Deser)
• Climate change, teleconnection patterns, and regional processes forcing marine populations in the Pacific (F.B. Schwing et al.)
• Climate projections for selected large marine ecosystems (M. Wang et al.)
• Climate controls on marine ecosystems and fish populations (J.E. Overland et al.)
• Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems (B.P. Finney et al.)
• Impacts of past climate variability on marine ecosystems: Lessons from sediment records (K-C Emeis et al.)
• Major pathways by which climate may force marine fish populations (G. Ottersen et al.)
• Linking climate to population variability in marine ecosystems characterized by non-simple dynamics: Conceptual templates and schematic constructs (A. Bakun)
• On the processes linking climate to ecosystem changes (K.F. Drinkwater et al.)
• Impacts of climate change on fisheries (K. Brander)
• How does fishing alter marine populations and ecosystems sensitivity to climate? (B. Planque et al.)
• Predicting the effects of climate change on marine communities and the consequences for fisheries (S. Jennings, K. Brander)
• Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: Concepts, issues and management responses (R.I. Perry et al.)

Impact of climate warming on Arctic benthic biodiversity: A case study of two Arctic glacial bays
M. Wlodarska-Kowalczuk, J.M. Weslawski. Climate Research (2001) 18:127-132. This case study leads to the conclusion that one of the consequences of climate warming for Arctic ecosystems will be a decline of benthic biodiversity due to an increase in mineral sedimentation from meltwaters.

The impact of ice melting on bacterioplankton in the Arctic Ocean
M.M. Sala et al. Polar Biology (2010) 33(12)1683-1694. Global warming and the associated ice melt are leading to an increase in the organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean. The authors evaluated the effects of ice melt on bacterioplankton at 21 stations in the Greenland Sea and Arctic Ocean in the summer of 2007, when a historical minimum of Arctic ice coverage was measured.

Impact of a shrinking Arctic ice cover on marine primary production
K.R. Arrigo et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2008) doi:10.1029/2008GL035028. Annual primary production in the Arctic has increased yearly, and 30% of this increase is attributable to decreased minimum summer ice extent and 70% to a longer phytoplankton growing season. Should these trends continue, additional loss of ice during Arctic spring could boost productivity greater than threefold above 1998-2002 levels, potentially altering marine ecosystem structure and the degree of pelagic-benthic coupling.

Impact of warm water advection on the winter zooplankton community in an Arctic fjord
K.J. Willis et al. Polar Biology (2007) 31(4):475-481. The west coast of Spitsbergen is influenced by water masses of Atlantic and Arctic origin. During the winter of January-April 2006, water temperatures on the West Spitsbergen Shelf were ~3°C warmer than typical winter conditions, leading to a coastal sea ice cover of reduced thickness, extent, and duration. The early introduction of shelf populations into the fjord has implications for the marine pelagic food web and pelagic-benthic coupling.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems
C.D.G. Harley et al. Ecology Letters (2006) 9(2):228-241. Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework.

Impacts of climate change on commercial fish stocks in Norwegian waters
E.K. Stenevik, S. Sundby. Marine Policy (2007) 31(1):19-31. The Norwegian fishing areas extend over various marine ecosystems that will respond differently to climate change.

Impacts of climate change on marine organisms and ecosystems
A.S. Brierley, M.J. Kingsford. Current Biology (2009) 19(14):R602-R614. This review describes present-day climate change, setting it in context with historical change, considers consequences of climate change for marine biological processes now and into the future, and discusses contributions that marine systems could play in mitigating the impacts of global climate change.

Impacts of climate warming on polar marine and freshwater ecosystems
S. Agustí et al. (eds.) Polar Biology (2010) 33(12):1595-1746. Warming and ice loss will affect key biological and biogeochemical processes of aquatic polar ecosystems and may induce ecological regime shifts, associated with possible losses of biodiversity and an increased vulnerability to invasions of species from lower latitudes. The goal of this special issue of Polar Biology is to bring together research results addressing impacts of warming and ice loss in both Antarctic and Arctic aquatic ecosystems.

Impacts of warming temperatures on Alaska's marine ecosystems
Fact sheet published in 2007 by the Alaska Marine Conservation Council. (PDF 597 KB)

Implications of climate change for northern Canada: Freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems
T.D. Prowse et al. Ambio (2009) 38(5):282-289. As the climate continues to change, there will be consequences for biodiversity shifts and for the ranges and distribution of many species with resulting effects on availability, accessibility, and quality of resources upon which human populations rely. This will have implications for the protection and management of wildlife, fish, and fisheries resources; protected areas; and forests.

Implications of warming temperatures for population outbreaks of a nonindigenous species (Membranipora membranacea, Bryozoa) in rocky subtidal ecosystems
M.I. Saunders et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2010) 55(4):1627-1642. This study explores the role of temperature on population outbreaks of a nonindigenous bryozoan in kelp beds in the western North Atlantic (Nova Scotia, Canada). The authors conclude that outbreaks of this species will increase in frequency and intensity if temperatures warm as a result of climate change, causing defoliation of kelp beds and, thus, facilitating the invasion of other nonindigenous benthic species.

Increasing temperatures change pelagic trophodynamics and the balance between pelagic and benthic secondary production in a water column model of the Kattegat
M. Maar, J.L.S. Hansen. Journal of Marine Systems (2011) 85(1-2):57-70. This study shows that climate warming presumably will change the trophodynamics of primary and secondary production and will alter the balance of the ecosystem towards a higher pelagic and a lower benthic secondary production.

An integrated study of economic effects of, and vulnerabilities to, global warming on the Barents Sea cod fisheries
A. Eide. Climatic Change (2008) 87(1-2):251-262. One factor of particular importance for the natural annual biological variations is the occasional inflow of young herring into the Barents Sea area. The herring inflow is difficult to predict and links to dynamical systems outside the Barents Sea area, complex recruitment mechanisms, and oceanographic conditions.

Interactions between climate change and contaminants
D. Schiedek. Marine Pollution Bulletin (2007) 54(12):1845-1856. This paper is intended to increase awareness among scientists, coastal zone managers and decision makers that climate change will affect contaminant exposure and toxic effects and that both forms of stress will impact aquatic ecosystems and biota.

Interannual variability of coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi blooms in response to changes in water column stability in the eastern Bering Sea
T. Iida et al. Continental Shelf Research (2012) 34:7-17. Here the authors propose that the key parameter for E. huxleyi blooms is the strength of the density stratification resulting from two water masses formed in different seasons, surface warm layer and cold bottom water (CBW). Winter sea ice distribution is an important factor in the CBW temperature in summer. Warming of the CBW since 2001 in the middle shelf has induced weakening of density stratification during summer.

Is climate change causing the increasing narwhal (Monodon monoceros) catches in Smith Sound, Greenland?
M.R Nielsen. Polar Research (2009) 28(2):238-245. This paper evaluates recent changes in narwhal (Monodon monoceros) catches in Siorapaluk, the northernmost community in Greenland, in consideration of the effects of changing climate and uncertainty of stock delineation.

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955-2002
G.T. Ruggerone et al. Deep Sea Research II (2007) 54(23-26):2776-2793. The authors tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages.

Living marine resources: Evolution of living resources and resource-dependent systems in response to rapid external forcing
This webpage from North by 2020, an International Polar Year initiative, looks at ways to bring together the experiences and expertise of as many partners as possible toward a common understanding and vision for effective ways to address future challenges of cooperatively and effectively managing the changing living marine resources of the Bering and Chukchi seas.

Long-term effects of predicted future seawater CO2 conditions on the survival and growth of the marine shrimp Palaemon pacificus
H. Kurihara et al. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2008) 367(1):41-46. The increasing atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been driving all marine organisms to live in increasingly acidic environments. In the present study, the authors evaluated the long-term effects of increased seawater CO2 on survival, growth, feeding, and moulting of the marine shrimp Palaemon pacificus.

Long-term trends in fish recruitment in the north-east Atlantic related to climate change
T. Brunel, J. Boucher. Fisheries Oceanography (2007) 16(4):336-349. This study investigates the temporal correspondence between the main patterns of recruitment variations among north-east Atlantic exploited fish populations and large-scale climate and temperature indices.

Loss of Arctic ice may promote hybrid marine mammals
ScienceDaily, December 16, 2010. A trio of researchers say the seasonal loss of the Arctic Ocean ice sheet, a continent-sized natural barrier between species such as bears, whales, and seals, could mean extinction of some rare marine mammals and the loss of many adaptive gene combinations.

Loss of Arctic sea ice causing punctuated change in sightings of killer whales (Orcinus orca) over the past century
J.W. Higdon, S.H. Ferguson. Ecological Applications (2009) 19(5):1365-1375. The authors measure changes in killer whale distribution in the Hudson Bay region with decreasing sea ice as an example of global readjustments occurring with climate change.

Major pathways by which climate may force marine fish populations
G. Ottersen et al. Journal of Marine Systems (2010) 79(3-4):343-360. Climate may affect marine fish populations through many different pathways, operating at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Climate impacts may work their way bottom up through the food web or affect higher trophic levels more directly.

The marine ecosystem of Kongsfjorden, Svalbard
H. Hop et al. Polar Research (2002) 21(1):167-208. Kongsfjorden is particularly suitable as a site for exploring the impacts of possible climate changes, with Atlantic water influx and melting of tidal glaciers both being linked to climate variability. The pelagic ecosystem is likely to be most sensitive to the Atlantic versus Arctic influence, whereas the benthic ecosystem is more affected by long-term changes in hydrography as well as changes in glacial runoff and sedimentation.

Marine range shifts and species introductions: Comparative spread rates and community impacts
C.J.B. Sorte et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2010) 19(3):303-316. Because it is well established that introduced species are a primary threat to global biodiversity, it follows that, just like introductions, range shifts have the potential to seriously affect biological systems. In addition, given that ranges shift faster in marine than terrestrial environments, marine communities might be affected faster than terrestrial ones as species shift with climate change.

Marine science: The tiniest catch
W. Holtcamp, Nature News, November 3, 2010. Marine scientists are prowling the Bering Sea to learn how climate affects minute sea creatures and the lucrative fishery that depends on them.

Marine systems
Chapter 9 (pages 453-538) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Arctic marine systems are unique with their high proportion of continental shelves and shallow water, dramatic seasonality and overall low level of sunlight, extremely low water temperatures, presence of extensive areas of multi-year and seasonal sea-ice cover, and strong influence from freshwater coming from rivers and ice melt. Such factors represent harsh conditions for many types of marine life. (PDF 4.00 MB)

Mass extinction of marine life in oceans during prehistoric times offers warning for future
Science Daily, May 17, 2011. The mass extinction of marine life in our oceans during prehistoric times is a warning that the same could happen again due to high levels of greenhouse gases, according to new research.

Mercury, food webs, and marine mammals: Implications of diet and climate change for human health
S. Booth, D. Zeller. Environmental Health Perspectives (2005) 113(5):521-526. Under present conditions and climate change scenarios, methyl mercury has increased in the ecosystem, translating into increased human exposure over time. High and harmful levels of methyl mercury in the diet of Faroe Islanders are driven by whale meat consumption, and the increasing impact of climate change is likely to exacerbate this situation.

Methylmercury photodegradation influenced by sea-ice cover in Arctic marine ecosystems
D. Point et al. Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1049. The authors conclude that sea-ice cover impedes the photochemical breakdown of methylmercury in surface waters and suggest that further loss of Arctic sea ice this century will accelerate sunlight-induced breakdown of methylmercury in northern surface waters.

Minor cause, major effect: Interactions in ecosystems can intensify impact of climate change
Science Daily, May 3, 2011. In a new study, marine biologists from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), together with colleagues from six other countries, show that highly complex interactions in ecosystems can intensify the impact of climate change within a relatively short period of time.

Modelled spatial distribution of marine fish and projected modifications in the North Atlantic Ocean
S. Lenoir et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(1):115-129. The objectives of this work were to examine the past, current and potential influence of global climate change on the spatial distribution of some commercially exploited fish and to evaluate a recently proposed new ecological niche model (ENM) called nonparametric probabilistic ecological niche model (NPPEN).

Modelling the potential impacts of climate change and human activities on the sustainability of marine resources
M. Barange et al. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2010) 2(5-6):326-333. Emerging models exploring the synergistic dual exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change and human activity demonstrate firstly the explicit inclusion of humans is essential to provide meaningful and realistic climate change projections and, secondly, effective tools for adaptation and mitigation strategies cannot be developed in their absence.

Monitoring changes in Alaska's coastline
Alaska Seas & Coasts, Volume 3, April 2007. Within the past decade the need for coastal monitoring studies at a large spatial or even global range has become increasingly obvious for conservation and sustainability of diverse coastal ecosystems.

Multi-decadal responses of a cod (Gadus morhua) population to human-induced trophic changes, fishing, and climate
M. Eero et al. Ecological Applications (2011) 21(1):214-226. The Baltic Sea is one of the few large marine ecosystems worldwide where the relative contribution of several key forcings to changes in fish populations can be analyzed with empirical data. This study investigates how climate variability and multiple human impacts (fishing, marine mammal hunting, eutrophication) have affected multi-decadal scale dynamics of cod in the Baltic Sea during the 20th century.

Mytilus thermophily?
D.W. Norton, H.M. Feder. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2006) 309:301-303. These comments stem from the authors' review of Mytilus (blue mussel) distribution in sub-Arctic and Arctic Alaska and from other recent literature.

Narwhals help study the Arctic Ocean
PRI's "The World," October 28, 2010. A team of researchers from the US and Greenland studied ocean temperatures in Baffin Bay by attaching sensors to the dorsal fins of 14 narwhals. Anchor Lisa Mullins speaks with Kristin Laidre, a polar scientist working with Greenland's Institute of Natural Resources, about the project.

Narwhals transmit climate data from Arctic seas
L. Laursen, Nature News, October 28, 2010. Marine mammals armed with thermometers return temperature readings from icy Baffin Bay.

NOAA-funded tagging of narwhals finds continued warming of southern Baffin Bay
NOAA online newsletter, October 27, 2010. The southern Baffin Bay off West Greenland has continued warming since wintertime ocean temperatures were last effectively measured there in the early 2000s. In a NOAA study during 2006-2007, temperatures were collected by narwhals tagged with sensors that recorded ocean depths and temperatures during feeding dives from the surface pack ice to the seafloor, going as deep as 1,773 meters, or more than a mile.

NOAA's new chief on restoring science to U.S. climate policy
E. Kolbert. Yale Environment 360 (2009). Marine biologist Jane Lubchenco now heads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, conducted by New Yorker writer Elizabeth Kolbert, Lubchenco speaks about the science of climate change, the complexities of communicating it to policy makers, and what she refers to as global warming's "equally evil twin," ocean acidification. This online article includes an audio link to the full interview (44 minutes).

North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change
E. Di Lorenzo et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2008) doi:10.1029/2007GL032838. The authors define a new pattern of climate change, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and show that its variability is significantly correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity, nutrients, and chlorophyll.

Northern abalone: Endangered gourmet sea snail could be doomed by increasing ocean acidity
Science Daily, May 26, 2011. Increasing levels of ocean acidity could spell doom for British Columbia's already beleaguered northern abalone, according to the first study to provide direct experimental evidence that changing sea water chemistry is negatively affecting an endangered species.

Observations and predictions of Arctic climatic change: Potential effects on marine mammals
C.T. Tynan, D.P. DeMaster. Arctic (1997) 50(4):308-322. Changes in the extent and concentration of sea ice may alter the seasonal distributions, geographic ranges, patterns of migration, nutritional status, reproductive success, and ultimately the abundance and stock structure of some species.

Observing Arctic ice-edge plankton blooms from space
Science Daily, March 4, 2011. Ongoing climate-driven changes to the Arctic sea ice could have a significant impact on the blooming of tiny planktonic plants (phytoplankton) with important implications for the Arctic ecosystem, according to new research conducted by scientists at the UK's National Oceanography Centre (NOC).

Ocean acidification: What it means to Alaskans and how we can adapt
Fact sheet published by the Alaska Sea Grant Marine Advisory Program with support from the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP).

Ocean acidification in the Arctic: What are the consequences of carbon dioxide increase on marine ecosystems?
ScienceDaily, June 4, 2010. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions not only lead to global warming but also cause another, less well-known but equally disconcerting environmental change: ocean acidification. A group of 35 researchers of the EU-funded EPOCA project have just started the first major CO2 perturbation experiment in the Arctic Ocean. Their goal is to determine the response of Arctic marine life to the rapid change in ocean chemistry.

Ocean acidification sets off alarm bells
Increasingly acidic waters in the Pacific Ocean may be a factor in the steep decline of salmon runs in the lower 48 states and possibly Alaska. This is an Alaska Public Radio Network news story from July 8, 2008. (MP3—2.05 MB, 4:29)

Ocean acidification threatening our oceans
The Circle (2010), Issue 4. The Circle is published quarterly by the WWF International Arctic Programme. This issue addresses ocean acidification at a circumpolar level and attempts to bring together some of the experts who are urging and taking action. (PDF 2.09 MB)

Ocean biogeochemistry and biology: A vision for the next decade of global change research
K. Lochte et al. Global Change Newsletter (2003) 56:19-23. The ocean plays an active part in regulating global climate. Large-scale changes in the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the ocean can already be observed. Most apparent are changes in marine food web structure, coastal zone eutrophication, and coral reef deterioration.

Ocean greenery under warming stress
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, July 28, 2010. A century of phytoplankton decline suggests that ocean ecosystems are in peril.

The ocean in a high-CO2 world: Science highlights from the second symposium on ocean acidification
J.C. Orr, C. Turley. Global Change Newsletter (2009) 73:22-31. Back in 2004 the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission held the groundbreaking international symposium "The Ocean in a High-CO2 World" that brought ocean acidification as an important anthropogenic CO2 issue to the forefront of research. This second meeting brought together scientists from 32 countries to reveal what we now know about the impacts of ocean acidification on marine chemistry and ecosystems, to assess these impacts for policy makers, and to decide what the future research needs are.

Ocean warming and acidification; implications for the Arctic brittlestar, Ophiocten sericeum
H.L. Wood et al. Polar Biology (2011) 34(7):1033-1044. The Arctic Ocean currently has the highest global average pH. However, due to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, it will become a region with one of the lowest global pH levels. In addition, Arctic waters will also increase in temperature as a result of global warming. These environmental changes can pose a significant threat for marine species, and in particular true Arctic species that are adapted to the historically cold and relatively stable abiotic conditions of the region.

Oceanography: Sick seas
J. Ruttimann. Nature (2006) 442:978-980. The rising level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is making the world's oceans more acidic. The author reports on the potentially catastrophic effect this could have on marine creatures.

Oceanography of the Canadian Shelf of the Beaufort Sea: A setting for marine life
E.C. Carmack, R.W. MacDonald. Arctic (2002) 55(Supp 1):29-45. Conservation of marine biodiversity in the Beaufort Sea demands that we understand what individual organisms require of their physical and geochemical environments in order to survive. Specifically, how do the extraordinary spatial and seasonal variations in ice cover, temperature, light, freshwater, turbidity, and currents of the Beaufort Sea define unique places or times critical to marine life?

Oil exposure in a warmer Arctic: Potential impacts on key zooplankton species
M. Hjorth, T.G. Nielsen. Marine Biology (2011) 158(6):1339-1347. Oil exploration activities are rapidly increasing in Arctic marine areas, with potentially higher risks of oil spills to the environment. Water temperatures in Arctic marine areas are simultaneously increasing as a result of global warming. Potential effects of a combination of increased water temperature and exposure to the PAH pyrene were investigated on fecal pellet and egg production and hatching success of two copepod species, Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus glacialis, sampled in Disko Bay, Greenland, on 23-25 April 2008.

On the increasing vulnerability of the world ocean to multiple stresses
E.L. Miles. Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2009) 34:17-41. This review focuses on the increasing vulnerability of the world ocean to multiple anthropogenic stresses in the latter half of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century. The major additions to the suite of multiple stresses consist of the combined impacts of changing ocean thermal structure and increasing acidification, both of which are the results of increased anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

On the processes linking climate to ecosystem changes
K.F. Drinkwater et al. Journal of Marine Systems (2010) 79(3-4):374-388. While documentation of climate effects on marine ecosystems has a long history, the underlying processes have often been elusive. In this paper, the authors review some of the ecosystem responses to climate variability and discuss the possible mechanisms through which climate acts.

Ontogenetic patterns and temperature-dependent growth rates in early life stages of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus)
T.P. Hurst et al. Fishery Bulletin (2010) 108(4):382-392. Pacific cod is an important component of fisheries and food webs in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. However, vital rates of early life stages of this species have yet to be described in detail. The authors determined the thermal sensitivity of growth rates of embryos, preflexion and postflexion larvae, and postsettlement juveniles.

An overview of the ecosystems of the Barents and Norwegian seas and their response to climate variability
H. Loeng, K. Drinkwater. Deep Sea Research II (2007) 54(23-26):2478-2500. The physical oceanography of the Barents and Norwegian seas is dominated by the influx of warm, high-salinity Atlantic waters from the south and cold, low-salinity waters from the Arctic.

Pacific walrus: Benthic bioturbator of Beringia
G.C. Ray et al. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2006) 330(1):403-419. The dependency of walruses on sea ice as habitat, the extent of their feeding, their benthic bioturbation, and consequent nutrient flux suggest that walruses play a major ecological role in Beringia. Should sea ice continue to move northward as a result of climate change, the walrus' ecological role could be diminished or lost, the benthic ecosystem could be fundamentally altered, and native subsistence hunters would be deprived of important resources.

Pacific walruses studied as sea ice melts
Science Daily, August 25, 2011. USGS Alaska Science Center researchers, in cooperation with the Native Village of Point Lay, will attempt to attach 35 satellite radio-tags to walruses on the northwestern Alaska coast in August as part of their ongoing study of how the Pacific walrus are responding to reduced sea ice conditions in late summer and fall.

Phytoplankton productivity on the Canadian Shelf of the Beaufort Sea
E.C. Carmack et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2004) 277:37-50. For the first time, the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton productivity on a broad, seasonally ice-covered arctic shelf (the Canadian Shelf of the Beaufort Sea) is examined.

Polar marine ecosystems: Major threats and future change
A. Clarke, C.M. Harris. Environmental Conservation (2003) 30(01):1-25. Although the two polar regions are similar in their extreme photoperiod, low temperatures, and in being heavily influenced by snow and ice, in almost all other respects they are very different. In both polar regions, the capacity of marine ecosystems to withstand the cumulative impact of a number of pressures, including climate change, pollution, and overexploitation, is of greatest concern.

Polar ocean ecosystems in a changing world
V. Smetacek, S. Nicol. Nature (2005) 437:362-368. Polar organisms have adapted their seasonal cycles to the dynamic interface between ice and water. This interface ranges from the micrometer-sized brine channels within sea ice to the planetary-scale advance and retreat of sea ice. Polar marine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change because small temperature differences can have large effects on the extent and thickness of sea ice.

Polar oceans in transition
Science Daily, October 4, 2011. Researchers from Norway, India, Germany, and Chile are joining forces to understand what is happening in polar oceans, and what can be done.

Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea region
H. Roderfeld et al. Climatic Change (2008) 87(1-2):283-303. The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon
L.G. Crozier et al. Evolutionary Applications (2008) 1(2):252-270. Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. The authors summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook and sockeye salmon.

Predicted levels of future ocean acidification and temperature rise could alter community structure and biodiversity in marine benthic communities
R. Hale et al. Oikos (2011) 120(5):661-674. This community-based mesocosm study supports previous suggestions, based on observations of direct physiological impacts, that ocean acidification induced changes in marine biodiversity will be driven by differential vulnerability within and between different taxonomical groups.

Predicting the effects of climate change on marine communities and the consequences for fisheries
S. Jennings, K. Brander. Journal of Marine Systems (2010) 79(3-4):418-426. Almost all existing studies of the effects of climate have focused on species and the consequences of changes in their abundance for the fishing industry and consumer. However, single species responses are only one of many possible changes that can affect fisheries, and these may be changes to which humans can adapt, even if fishery scientists and the fishing and processing industries are unprepared for this at present.

Predicting the impact of ocean acidification on benthic biodiversity: What can animal physiology tell us?
S. Widdicombe, J.I. Spicer. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2008) 366(1-2):187-197. The challenge currently facing scientists is to predict the long-term implications of ocean acidification for the diversity of marine organisms and for the ecosystem functions this diversity sustains. This challenge is all the more difficult considering that empirical data specifically addressing the impact of ocean acidification on marine biodiversity are currently lacking.

A preliminary assessment of threats to Arctic marine mammals and their conservation in the coming decades
H.P. Huntington. Marine Policy (2009) 33(1):77-82. Over the next several decades, arctic marine mammals will face threats from six areas of human influence: climate change, environmental contaminants, offshore oil and gas activities, shipping, hunting, and commercial fisheries. This paper reviews these factors, the nature and magnitude of the threats they pose, current scientific understanding and management of those threats, and the potential for effective conservation action.

Principles of conserving the Arctic's biodiversity
Chapter 10 (pages 539-596) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Climate change will result in changes in the productivity of ecosystems through photosynthesis and changes in the rates of decomposition. The balance between these two major processes will, to a large extent, determine the future nature of the arctic environment. (PDF 1.94 MB)

Prodigal plankton species makes first known migration from Pacific to Atlantic via pole
Science Daily, June 29, 2011. The melting Arctic has opened a Northwest Passage across the Pole for a tiny species of plankton called Neodenticula seminae, which had disappeared from the North Atlantic 800,000 years ago.

Record long algal bloom in Disko Bay, Greenland
Science Daily, July 19, 2011. The spring bloom of plant plankton in Disko Bay has been unusually long this year. While in some years, it may have a short burst of just two weeks, this year Disko Bay was filled with plankton alga for more than six weeks.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic
M. Edwards et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2006) 51(2):820-829. Over the past four decades, some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea. This study gives a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations such as the North Atlantic Oscillation.

A review of apparent 20th century changes in the presence of mussels (Mytilus trossulus) and macroalgae in Arctic Alaska, and of historical and paleontological evidence used to relate mollusc distributions to climate change
H.M. Feder et al. Arctic (2003) 56(4):391-407. Live mussels attached to fresh laminarioid brown algae, all fastened to clusters of pebbles and small cobbles, were repeatedly cast ashore by autumn storms at Barrow, Alaska, in the 1990s.

Rising Arctic Ocean temperatures cause gas hydrate destabilization and ocean acidification
A. Biastoch et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047222. Vast amounts of methane hydrates are potentially stored in sediments along the continental margins, owing their stability to low temperature–high pressure conditions. Global warming could destabilize these hydrates and cause a release of methane (CH4) into the water column and possibly the atmosphere.

Sea ice cover affects inter-annual and geographic variation in growth of the Arctic cockle Clinocardium ciliatum (Bivalvia) in Greenland
M.K. Sejr et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2009) 389:149-158. Sea ice exerts a strong influence on Arctic marine primary production, thereby influencing food availability for secondary producers. Food availability is recognized as one of the primary constraints on macrobenthic growth and production. Thus, it may be expected that spatial and temporal variability in Arctic sea ice cover influencing primary productivity could translate to the next trophic level: the benthic secondary producers.

Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf
F.J. Mueter, M.A. Litzow. Ecological Applications (2008) 18(2):309-320. Seasonal ice cover creates a pool of cold bottom water on the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf each winter. The southern edge of this cold pool, which defines the ecotone between Arctic and subarctic communities, has retreated approximately 230 kilometers northward since the early 1980s.

Seasonal variability of the inorganic carbon system in the Amundsen Gulf region of the southeastern Beaufort Sea
E.H. Shadwick et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2011) 56(1):303-322. During a year-round occupation of Amundsen Gulf in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, total alkalinity, partial pressure of CO2, and related parameters were measured over a full annual cycle.

Secondary production in the oceans and the response to climate change
M. Heath et al. Global Change Newsletter (2001) 47:9-12. Trends over the past 50 years in the ocean climate of the North Atlantic (convective depth, poleward heat transport, overflow from the Nordic Seas) are now well documented. Some of these are correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index. What is the impact of these large scale, low frequency climatic changes on the living resources of the North Atlantic?

Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: Concepts, issues and management responses
R.I. Perry et al. Journal of Marine Systems (2010) 79(3-4):427-435. Modern fisheries research and management must understand and take account of the interactions between climate and fishing, rather than try to disentangle their effects and address each separately. These interactions are significant drivers of change in exploited marine systems and have ramifications for ecosystems and those who depend on the services they provide.

The shared future: A report of the Aspen Institute Commission on Arctic Climate Change
Aspen Institute, 2011. In recognition of the scientific forecast of significant changes in the Arctic caused by global climate change, the Aspen Institute convened a civil society Dialogue and Commission on Arctic Climate Change. The Commission began its deliberations by identifying a set of dialogue principles as the foundation by which governance and sustainable management should proceed in the Arctic marine environment. This report presents the Commission's recommendations. Listen to an EarthSky interview with Commission member and respected oceanographer Sylvia Earle.

Shell-shocked: How different creatures deal with an acidifying ocean
J.B. Ries. Earth (2010). Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are making the oceans more acidic, which, in turn, is reducing the concentration of carbonate ions dissolved in seawater that organisms use to build their protective shells and skeletons.

Sinking export of particulate organic material from the euphotic zone in the eastern Beaufort Sea
T. Juul-Pedersen et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2010) 410:55-70. This paper presents an extensive spatial and temporal study of the sinking export of particulate organic material below the euphotic zone in the eastern Beaufort Sea. Free-drifting short-term particle interceptor traps were deployed, generally at 50 m, during fall 2002 and 2003, and summer 2004.

Smallest algae thrive as the Arctic Ocean freshens
W.K. Li et al. Science (2009) 326(5952):539. As climate changes and the upper Arctic Ocean receives more heat and fresh water, it becomes more difficult for mixing processes to deliver nutrients from depth to the surface for phytoplankton growth.

Spring time production of bottom ice algae in the landfast sea ice zone at Barrow, Alaska
S.H. Lee et al. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2008) 367(2):204-212. The primary objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of ice algae and phytoplankton primary production during the spring growing season in the landfast sea ice zone of Barrow, Alaska in the western Arctic Ocean. The second objective was to compare the bloom patterns and amount of carbon production of ice algae between this and previous studies. Finally, the third objective was to evaluate possible changes in the physiological condition of sea ice algae through the growing season by determining carbon allocation into different macromolecules as photosynthetic end-products.

State of the Arctic coast 2010: Scientific review and outlook
D.L. Forbes, ed. (2011). This report addresses a recognized need for a more detailed assessment of the impacts of environmental and social change in the Arctic coastal zone. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2005) provided an overall synthesis of observed and anticipated impacts on social and ecological systems in the Arctic, but did not attempt a focused treatment of the coastal zone.

State of the global environment
T.E. Lovejoy, Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel, October 2008. A recent study on human impact on marine ecosystems concluded that no part of the oceans is unaffected, and that 41% of ocean ecosystems are affected by multiple drivers. Ocean acidification is an additional effect of greenhouse gas concentrations separate from the consequences for climate. Effects are already evident at the base of food chains in the North Atlantic and off Alaska.

The tangled web: Global fishing, global climate, and fish stock fluctuations
M. Barange et al. Global Change Newsletter (2003) 56:24-27. Ocean warming will have direct consequences for species distribution and spawning habitats, and indirect consequences for food web stability. Failure to appreciate that the environment is changing, with poorly understood consequences for marine resources, may lead to unsustainable management.

Temperature effects on growth of juvenile Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides Walbaum) in West Greenland waters
K. Sünksen et al. Journal of Sea Research (2010) 64(1-2):125-132. Future increase in temperature along the west coast of Greenland is likely to result in enhanced growth of juvenile Greenland halibut. Whether this leads to increased recruitment is uncertain as density-dependent mortality of the settled juvenile Greenland halibut appears to counteract the positive effects of enhanced growth.

Temperature effects on the molting, growth, and lipid composition of newly settled red king crab
A.W. Stoner et al. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology (2010) 393(1-2):138-147. Red king crab is one of the most important fishery resource species in Alaska. It is threatened by heavy fishing pressure and changing climate conditions, yet little is known about the species' first year of post-settlement life. This study was undertaken to explore how temperature mediates growth and energy allocation in newly metamorphosed juveniles.

Ten years after: Krill as indicator of changes in the macro-zooplankton communities of two Arctic fjords
F. Buchholz et al. Polar Biology (2010) 33(1):101-113. A macro-zooplankton study from 1996 was repeated in 2006 and focused on euphausiid species as indicators of advection and warming effects in Kongsfjorden, West Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The influence of warmer Atlantic water in Kongsfjorden was indicated by the findings of three additional euphausiid species of typically Atlantic origin, relative to the previous study 10 years ago.

Threatening ocean life from the inside out
M.J. Hardt, C. Safina. Scientific American online (2010). 303:66-73. Carbon dioxide emissions are making the oceans more acidic, imperiling the growth and reproduction of species from plankton to squid.

Tides of trouble: Increased threats to human health and ecosystems from harmful algal blooms
Fact sheet published by Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), 2010. The proliferation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) is a matter of growing global environmental health concern. These dangerous blooms of tiny microalgae can produce potent toxins that can harm people, pets, and marine life, and contaminate aquatic food chains.

Timing of blooms, algal food quality and Calanus glacialis reproduction and growth in a changing Arctic
J.E. Søreide et al. Global Change Biology (2010). The Arctic bloom consists of two distinct categories of primary producers, ice algae growing within and on the underside of the sea ice, and phytoplankton growing in open waters. Long-chain omega-3 fatty acids, a subgroup of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) produced exclusively by these algae, are essential to all marine organisms for successful reproduction, growth, and development.

Tipping points, thresholds and the keystone role of physiology in marine climate change research
C.J. Monaco, B. Helmuth. Chapter 3, Advances in Marine Biology (2011) 60:123-160. Most approaches to studying ecological thresholds in marine ecosystems tend to focus on populations, or on nonlinearities in physical drivers. Here the authors examine why ecological thresholds can occur well before concomitant thresholds in physical drivers are observed, i.e., how even small linear changes in the physical environment can lead to ecological tipping points.

Transitional states in marine fisheries: Adapting to predicted global change
M.A. MacNeil et al. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2010) 365(1558):3753-3763. Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea, and the Bering Sea, the authors contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries.

Trends in sea ice cover within habitats used by bowhead whales in the western Arctic
S.E. Moore, K.L. Laidre. Ecological Applications (2006) 16(3):932-944. This analysis elucidates the variability inherent in the western Arctic marine ecosystem at scales relevant to bowhead whales and contrasts basin-scale depictions of extreme sea ice retreats, thinning, and wind-driven movements.

Trophic cascades and future harmful algal blooms within ice-free Arctic Seas north of Bering Strait: A simulation analysis
J.J. Walsh et al. Progress In Oceanography (2011) doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2011.02.001. Similar to the history of the southern North Sea adjacent to the Rhine River, possible farming of northwestern Alaska and Canada, in conjunction with other human activities of ice retreat and overfishing, may lead to future exacerbations of poisonous phytoplankton. These potential killers include both toxic dinoflagellate and diazotroph HABs, deadly to terrestrial and marine mammals, as well as prymnesiophytes, some of which have already foamed beaches, while others have killed fishes of European waters.

Uncertain future for ocean algae
M. Behrenfeld. Nature Climate Change (2011) 1:33-34. Warming of the upper ocean may stimulate plankton metabolism, enhancing photosynthesis. This effect has received little attention, but new research suggests that it could be important enough to spur a net increase in global ocean productivity.

Variability in the Bering Sea ecosystem
S.A. Macklin et al. Progress in Oceanography (2002) 55(1-2):1-4. This issue of Progress in Oceanography comprises research articles about climate-related changes in the Bering Sea, from chemistry dynamics to phytoplankton biomass to flatfish recruitment. This introductory article summarizes some of the studies.

Vertical flux of particulate matter in an Arctic fjord: The case of lack of the sea-ice cover in Adventfjorden 2006-2007
M. Zajaczkowski et al. Polar Biology (2009) 33(2):223-239. Seasonal dynamics of suspended minerals, organic matter, particulate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chlorophyll, and their vertical fluxes were studied in a small Arctic fjord (Adventfjorden, Spitsbergen) from November 2006 to October 2007.

Vulnerable Arctic areas need protection as region warms, report says
Yale Environment 360, April 27, 2011. A new report identifies 13 areas of the Arctic most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and calls for their protection as sea ice melts and industrial activity moves into newly accessible areas.

Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: Ocean biogeochemistry under global change
N. Gruber. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (2011) 369(1943):1980-1996. In the coming decades and centuries, the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems will become increasingly stressed by at least three independent factors. Rising temperatures, ocean acidification, and ocean deoxygenation will cause substantial changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment, which will then affect the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems in ways that we are only beginning to fathom.

Warming waters threaten 'unicorns of the sea'
NPR's "All Things Considered," May 11, 2008. Researchers studying the impact of climate change on Arctic creatures say that the narwhal—the long-tusked whale that gave rise to the myth of the unicorn—could be in danger. Narwhals hunt in ice-covered areas and may be among the first animals to feel the heat of warming Arctic waters.

Weaving marine food webs from end to end under global change
C.L. Moloney et al. Journal of Marine Systems (2011) 84(3-4):106-116. Marine food web dynamics are determined by interactions within and between species and between species and their environment. Global change directly affects abiotic conditions and living organisms, impinging on all trophic levels in food webs.

West Greenland's cod-to-shrimp transition: Local dimensions of climatic change
L.C. Hamilton et al. Arctic (2003) 56(3):271-282. This integrated case study examines linkages between atmospheric conditions (including the North Atlantic Oscillation), ocean circulation, ecosystem conditions, fishery activities, and the livelihoods and population changes of two West Greenland towns: Sisimiut, south of Disko Bay, and Paamiut, on the southwest coast.

What top predators can tell us about ocean ecosystems
Science Daily, June 27, 2011. Dr. Sara Iverson from Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, is able to determine what predators at the top of the food chain are eating and, by extension, how their diet has changed due to changes in ecosystems.

When noise becomes the signal: Chemical contamination of aquatic ecosystems under a changing climate
F. Wang. Marine Pollution Bulletin (2010) 60(10):1633-1635. Evidence is now emerging that climate change alters storage, transformation, transport pathways, eco-dynamics, and bio-uptake of contaminants. Here, the authors propose a new paradigm that, during a rapidly changing climate, emission control of some contaminants may be followed by long delays, on the order of decades or longer, before ensuing reduction is seen in food-web contaminant levels.

Workshop report—IUCN/NRDC workshop to identify areas of ecological and biological significance or vulnerability in the Arctic marine environment
L. Speer, T.L. Laughlin, April 7, 2011. Report prepared from results of a workshop held November 2-4, 2010, in La Jolla, California, by International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).

World's oceans in 'shocking' decline
R. Black, BBC News, June 20, 2011. In a new report, scientists warn that ocean life is "at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history." They conclude that issues such as overfishing, pollution, and climate change are acting together in ways that have not previously been recognized.

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Shifting Species

Adapting to climate change: A perspective from evolutionary physiology
S.L. Chown et al. Climate Research (2010) 43:3-15. Although perhaps not as well developed as correlative approaches to understanding species responses to change, mechanistic approaches are advancing rapidly. In this review, the authors explore several of the key messages emerging from the mechanistic approach, embodied in evolutionary physiology, to understanding and forecasting species responses to climate change.

The Alaska ecosystem
Alaska Public Radio's "Talk of Alaska," September 16, 2011. Changing climate is prompting responses from many different species. Among the first to adapt are predators and insects. The spruce bark beetle and the great white shark are feasting in Alaska. Tracking Alaska's ecosystem is the subject of this show in which host Steve Heimel interviews Andrew Nikiforuk, author of Empire of the Beetle, and Bruce Wright, author of Alaska's Predators: Their Ecology and Conservation.

Alien species in a warmer world: Risks and opportunities
G-R Walther et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2009) 24(12):686-693. Based on a review of climate-mediated biological invasions of plants, invertebrates, fishes, and birds, the authors discuss the ways in which climate change influences biological invasions. They emphasize the role of alien species in a dynamic context of shifting species ranges and changing communities.

Animal responses to global change in the North
A. Hofgaard et al., eds. Ecological Bulletins (1999) Volume 47. This volume includes presentations and conclusions from the ARTERI workshop "Europe's Cold Regions: Scenarios for Animal Responses to Global Change," held in Abisko, Sweden, in April 1998. The volume also includes presentations describing animal interactions between the cold areas of Europe and other parts of Europe and circumpolar north.

Another symbol of the Arctic's complex ecosystem finds itself on thin ice
L. Morello. New York Times online, August 10, 2010. Changing habits of polar bears have drawn most of the attention, but walruses, which depend on drifting summer sea ice as a base for hunting and transportation through the Bering Strait, are changing, too. They are sheltering more on land in Alaska and Siberia. For Alaska's indigenous hunters, whose lives meld modern conveniences with their traditional subsistence culture, the change threatens a way of life.

Arctic biodiversity trends 2010: Selected indicators of change
Report by CAFF International Secretariat, Akureyri, Iceland, May 2010. In 2008, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) passed a resolution expressing "extreme concern" over the impacts of climate change on Arctic indigenous peoples, other communities, and biodiversity. It highlighted the potentially significant consequences of changes in the Arctic. Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010: Selected Indicators of Change provides evidence that some of those anticipated impacts on Arctic biodiversity are already occurring. (PDF 18.57 MB)

Arctic 'ice refuge' envisioned as region warms rapidly in 21st century
Yale Environment 360, December 17, 2010. As the Arctic rapidly warms in the 21st century and Arctic sea ice largely disappears in summer, a strip of year-round ice is likely to remain to the north of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic archipelago, providing a refuge for some sea-ice dependent wildlife, such as polar bears and ringed seals, according to researchers.

Arctic insects as indicators of environmental change
H.V. Danks. Arctic (1992) 45(2):159-166. The great diversity of terrestrial arthropods in the Arctic suggests that these organisms are especially useful to monitor environmental change there, where warming as a result of climatic change is expected to be especially pronounced and where current conditions are limiting for many organisms.

Arctic melting will affect the migratory strategies of seabirds
Science Daily, June 30, 2011. A study of kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in the Arctic region provides the first data on the migratory patterns of this seabird species and analyzes its capacity to respond to environmental changes. The kittiwake is one of the most emblematic marine species of the Arctic area, and evidence suggests that rising temperatures at the north pole over the coming decades will have a dramatic impact on populations of this bird.

Arctic roamers: The move of southern species into Far North
E. Struzik, Yale Environment 360, February 14, 2011. Grizzly bears mating with polar bears. Red foxes out-competing Arctic foxes. Exotic diseases making their way into once-isolated polar realms. These are just some of the worrisome phenomena now occurring as Arctic temperatures soar and the Arctic Ocean, a once-impermeable barrier, melts.

Arctic spring comes two weeks early
M. Hopkin, Nature News, June 18, 2007. Springtime in the Arctic is arriving two weeks earlier than it did a decade ago, say ecologists working in Greenland. Processes that mark the beginning of spring, such as flowers blooming and birds laying eggs, are now happening an average of more than 14 days earlier in the calendar than they did as recently as 1996, as a result of rising temperatures.

Arctic tundra and polar desert ecosystems
Chapter 7 (pages 243-352) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. The dominant response of current arctic species to climate change, as in the past, is very likely to be relocation rather than adaptation. Some groups such as mosses, lichens, and some herbivores and their predators are at risk in some areas, but productivity and number of species is very likely to increase. (PDF 3.61 MB)

Arctic wildlife feels the heat
BBC News, August 12, 1999. BBC environmental correspondent Alex Kirby reports on a Greenpeace expedition to the Arctic where researchers from ten countries sailed along the edge of the ice pack in the Chukchi Sea, between Alaska and Russia, studying the impacts of climate change on the region's wildlife.

As the Arctic Ocean melts, a refuge plan for the polar bear
Yale Environment 360, December 22, 2010. With the Arctic Ocean heading toward a largely ice-free state in summer, scientists are looking for areas that may help preserve ice-dependent creatures. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, geologist Stephanie Pfirman talks about the need for a refuge north of Canada and Greenland that researchers say could be a kind of Noah's Ark in the age of global warming.

Baffin Island wasps may connect to climate change
CBC News, August 19, 2010. Researchers collecting bugs in the Canadian Arctic have confirmed wasps are breeding on Baffin Island, which they say may be further evidence of climate change.

Bering Sea changes baffle scientists
BBC News, January 7, 1999. BBC environmental correspondent Alex Kirby reports on the conclusions of an international workshop on the problems of the Bering Sea.

Beyond predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate
T.P. Dawson et al. Science (2011) 332(6025):53-58. Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. The authors introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses.

Biodiversity and climate change
K.J. Willis, S.A. Bhagwat. Science (2009) 326(5954):806-807. Over the past decade, several models have been developed to predict the impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, caution may be required in interpreting results from these models.

Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services
H. Mooney. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2009) 1(1):46-54. Stresses imposed by climate change in the coming years will require extraordinary adaptation. We need to track the changing status of ecosystems, deepen our understanding of the biological underpinnings for ecosystem service delivery, and develop new tools and techniques for maintaining and restoring resilient biological and social systems.

Biologist tracks walruses forced ashore as ice melts
NPR's "Weekend Edition Sunday" aired this story by Alaska Public Radio Network's Annie Feidt on September 26, 2010.

Biology of small populations and the influence of climate change
Video of a lecture at UC Berkeley in September 2009 by Steven R. Beissinger, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, UC Berkeley. (60 minutes; starts at 41:31)

Birds and climate change: Ecological disruption in motion
Audubon, February 2009. Analysis of four decades of Christmas Bird Count observations reveals that birds seen in North America during the first weeks of winter have moved dramatically northward toward colder latitudes over the past four decades.

Breeding bird surveys at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut (1980-2008)
S.A. Trefry et al. Arctic (2010) 63(3):308-314. Long-term monitoring of bird populations in the Arctic is of considerable interest, as this area is experiencing rapid climate warming; however, multi-decadal studies in the Canadian high Arctic are rare. Over five summers between 1980 and 2008, the authors conducted breeding bird surveys by walking transects and mapping territories in a periglacial lowland on east-central Ellesmere Island, Nunavut.

Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change
C.M. Sgrò et al. Evolutionary Applications (2011) 4(2):326-337. From an evolutionary perspective, landscapes need to allow in situ selection and capture high levels of genetic variation essential for responding to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. The authors summarize ideas that need to be considered in planning for evolutionary resilience.

Changes in vegetation determine how animals migrate
Science Daily, May 23, 2011. The predictability and scale of seasonal changes in a habitat help determine the distance migratory species move and whether the animals always travel together to the same place or independently to different locations.

Citizen observation of natural phenomena
Phenology is the timing of the annual cycles of plants and animals. Climate warming may be changing the timing of these cycles, and scientists need help tracking all the changes. A national network has been set up to collect observations from citizens across the country. This show aired on Alaska Public Radio Network's "Talk of Alaska" on July 21, 2009. Guests were Dr. Julio Betancourt of U.S. Geological Survey in Tucson, Arizona, and Jake Weltzin, executive director of National Phenology Network. (MP3—4.93 MB, 5:23)

Climate and the match or mismatch between predator requirements and resource availability
J.M. Durant et al. Climate Research (2007) 33:271-283. Climate influences a population through a variety of processes, including reproduction, growth, migration patterns, and phenology. Climate may operate either directly through metabolic and reproductive processes or indirectly through prey, predators, and competitors. One mechanism that may be particularly important, and which is the focus of this review, is the role of climate in affecting the reproductive success of a predator through its effect on the relative timing of food requirement and food availability during early life stages.

Climate change
PBS Online NewsHour, May 20, 2004. The NewsHour's Science Unit examines how climate change could affect large numbers of species.

Climate change: An overview of trends, projections, and potential ecosystem impacts in the United States
Lecture #12 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented April 20, 2010, by Virginia Burkett, PhD, Chief Scientist for Global Change Research, USGS.

Climate change and biodiversity
T.E. Lovejoy, L. Hannah (eds.), Yale University, 2005. As human-induced climate change accelerates, scientists and policymakers involved with biodiversity conservation need authoritative information in order to design effective plans and responses. This book, written for the specialist as well as the concerned citizen, presents a comprehensive view of the newest research and thinking on climate change and biological diversity.

Climate change and biodiversity in the Arctic: Nordic perspectives
P.A. Wookey. Polar Research (2007) 26(2):96-103. The broad aims of this paper are to define biodiversity and ecosystem services, to set the biodiversity of the Arctic terrestrial realm into its global context, and, through the use of case studies, to illustrate how environmental change can influence biodiversity and ecosystems, and to explore what the implications of these changes might be.

Climate change and biodiversity: A public policy imperative
Video of a lecture presented as part of Northwestern University's Science Outreach Series: "Global Warming—A Threat to Biodiversity" in October 2005. Presenter Thomas E. Lovejoy, who coined the term "biological diversity," is president of the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment. (35:03)

Climate change and cyclic predator-prey population dynamics in the high Arctic
O. Gilg et al. Global Change Biology (2009) 15:2634-2652. The authors conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemming-predator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic.

Climate change and evolutionary adaptation
A.A. Hoffmann, C.M. Sgrò. Nature (2011) 470(7335):479-485. Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits.

Climate change and phenological responses of two seabird species breeding in the high Arctic
B. Moe et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2009) 393:235-246. The timing of breeding is a life-history trait that can greatly affect fitness, because successful reproduction depends on the match between the food requirements for raising young and the seasonal peak in food availability. The authors analyzed phenology (hatch dates) in relation to climate change for two seabird species breeding in the high Arctic, little auks (Alle alle) and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), for the periods 1963-2008 and 1970-2008.

Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach
I. Omann et al. Ecological Economics (2009) 69(1):24-31. Based on an analysis using the DPSIR framework, this paper discusses some of the important socioeconomic driving forces of climate change, with a focus on energy use and transportation. The paper also analyzes observed and potential changes of climate and the pressures they exert on biodiversity, the changes in biodiversity, the resulting impacts on ecosystem functions, and possible policy responses.

Climate change in Russia's Arctic tundra: 'Our reindeer go hungry. There isn't enough pasture'
L. Harding. guardian.co.uk, October 20, 2009. For 1,000 years the indigenous Nenets people have herded their reindeer along the Yamal Peninsula. But their survival in this remote region of northwest Siberia is under serious threat from climate change as Russia's ancient permafrost melts.

Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch
E. Post, M.C. Forchhammer. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2008) 363(1501):2367-2373. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming, there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability. For migratory herbivores, such as caribou, development of a trophic mismatch is particularly likely.

Climate change simulations show which animals can take the heat
Science Daily, October 4, 2011. Researchers at Brown University argue that whether an animal can make it to a final, climate-friendly destination isn't a simple matter of being able to travel a long way. It's the extent to which the creatures can withstand rapid fluctuations in climate along the way that will determine whether they complete the journey.

Climate change taking a toll on the Arctic
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," September 11, 2009. Ira Flatow, host of "Science Friday," interviews Dr. Eric Post, lead author of a Science article summarizing the state of research on climate change in the Arctic. Among the findings is that Arctic ecosystems have been severely disturbed.

Climate change threatens Arctic birds
BBC News, April 3, 2000. BBC environmental correspondent Alex Kirby reports on a study of the impact of climate change on Arctic breeding water birds.

Climate change tipping points for populations, not just species: Survival, reproduction of thousands of Arctic and alpine plants measured
ScienceDaily, October 21, 2010. As Earth's climate warms, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges away from the equator or to higher elevations.

Climate disruption and biodiversity
S.L. Pimm. Current Biology (2009) 19(14):R595-R601. Climate disruptions may cause the loss of a large fraction of the planet's biodiversity, even if the only mechanism were to be species ranges moving uphill as temperatures rise.

Climate impacts on polar bears
Online article published by the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the IUCN Species Survival Commission.

Climate-induced increase of moth multivoltinism in boreal regions
Juha Pöyry et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2011) 20(2):289-298. The occurrence of multivoltinism has increased in northern European moth communities during recent decades, apparently as a response to increasing temperatures during the spring and summer seasons. The increase in multivoltinism was greatest in the southernmost parts of Finland, whereas in the northern landscapes recent warming has triggered multivoltinism in only relatively few moth species.

Climate-mediated energetic constraints on the distribution of hibernating mammals
M.M. Humphries et al. Nature (2002) 418:313-316. The causal nature of the links between climate and animal biogeography remains largely obscure. Here, the authors develop a bioenergetic model that predicts the feasibility of mammalian hibernation under different climatic conditions.

Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an Arctic-nesting goose species
M. Dickey et al. Global Change Biology (2008) 14:1973-1985. Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic, and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. The authors examine the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic.

Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change
G-R Walther. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2010) 365(1549):2019-2024. There is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also, and more intensively, to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.

The complexity of predicting climate-induced ecological impacts
K. Mustin et al. Climate Research (2007) 35:165-175. The anticipated future increases in global surface temperatures are likely to have major impacts on the distribution of species. Predicting future species' distributions is largely being addressed through the use of climate envelope models, which may indicate the broad direction of likely changes in distribution, but they fail to incorporate the non-climatic factors that are important determinants of species' distributions within their current range.

Consequences of changing biodiversity
F.S. Chapin III et al. Nature (2000) 405:234-242. Human alteration of the global environment has triggered the sixth major extinction event in the history of life and caused widespread changes in the global distribution of organisms. These changes in biodiversity alter ecosystem processes and change the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

Consequences of long-distance swimming and travel over deep-water pack ice for a female polar bear during a year of extreme sea ice retreat
G.M. Durner et al. Polar Biology (2011) 34(7):975-984. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) prefer to live on Arctic sea ice but may swim between ice floes or between sea ice and land. Although anecdotal observations suggest that polar bears are capable of swimming long distances, no data have been available to describe in detail long distance swimming events or the physiological and reproductive consequences of such behavior.

Conservation and management of polar bear and walrus in a warming climate
Lecture #5 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented September 16, 2009, by Joel Garlich-Miller, Wildlife Biologist, Marine Mammal Management, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (Alaska).

Conserving biodiversity under climate change: The rear edge matters
A. Hampe, R.J. Petit. Ecology Letters (2005) 8(5):461-467. Modern climate change is producing poleward range shifts of numerous taxa, communities, and ecosystems worldwide. The response of species to changing environments is likely to be determined largely by population responses at range margins. In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied.

Current State & Trends Assessment: Polar Systems, Chapter 25: Polar Systems by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 
Because of polar amplification of climate change, the ecological impacts of warming are evident earliest and most clearly at high latitudes. In a region of near-pristine wilderness, relationships between ecosystems, species, and environment are more clearly defined than in populated regions where human influences can mask these relationships. This chapter emphasizes the ecological processes that most directly influence human well-being within and outside polar regions. (PDF 994 KB)

The dangers of an early spring
N. Boelman, New York Times, June 7, 2011. Natalie Boelman, an ecosystem ecologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, writes from the North Slope of Alaska, where she is studying the effects of climate change on the interactions among plants, insects, and migratory songbirds.

Declines in abundance and distribution of the ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) in Arctic Canada
H.G. Gilchrist, M.L. Mallory. Biological Conservation (2005) 121(2):303-309. The ivory gull is a seabird that inhabits Arctic oceans throughout the year, often in association with polar pack ice. It is rare and remains one of the most poorly known seabird species in the world. Declines have occurred in all habitat types and across the known Canadian breeding range, suggesting that causes of the decline may be related to factors occurring during migration or on wintering grounds.

Declining body size: A third universal response to warming?
J.L. Gardner et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2011) 26(6):285-291. A recently documented correlate of anthropogenic climate change involves reductions in body size. Because body size affects thermoregulation and energetics, changing body size has implications for resilience in the face of climate change.

Decreasing ice coverage will reduce the breeding success of Baltic grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) females
M. Jüssi et al. Ambio (2008) 37(2):80-85. Because indices of life-time net reproductive rate (pup survival) and pup quality (weaning weight and health) were more auspicious on ice as compared with land, diminishing ice fields will lower the fitness of Baltic grey seal females and substantially increase the risk for quasi-extinction.

Detection of snow surface thawing and refreezing in the Eurasian Arctic with QuikSCAT: Implications for reindeer herding
A. Bartsch et al. Ecological Applications (2010) 20(8):2346-2358. Snow conditions play an important role for reindeer herding. In particular, the formation of ice crusts after rain-on-snow (ROS) events or general surface thawing with subsequent refreezing impedes foraging.

Dispersal and climate change: A case study of the Arctic tern Sterna paradisaea
A.P. Møller et al. Global Change Biology (2006) 12(10):2005-2013. Dispersal is an important evolutionary process that can affect admixture of populations and cause rapid responses to changing climatic conditions due to gene flow from populations at different altitudes or latitudes already experiencing these conditions.

Drowning polar bears worry researchers
T. Simonite, Nature News, December 20, 2005. Marine biologists from the U.S. Minerals Management Service reported finding four bears drowned off the northern coast of Alaska last autumn. They also spotted an unusually large number of bears swimming in the open sea, some as far as 95 kilometers offshore. Twenty percent of bears seen in the area in September were in the water, while records from previous years show that 4% of sighted bears were swimming.

Ecosystem stewardship: Sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet
F.S. Chapin et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2009) 25(4):241-249. All social-ecological systems are vulnerable to recent and projected changes but have sources of adaptive capacity and resilience that can sustain ecosystem services and human well-being through active ecosystem stewardship.

The early bear gets the goose: Climate change, polar bears and lesser snow geese in western Hudson Bay
R.F. Rockwell, L.J. Gormezano. Polar Biology (2009) 32(4):539-547. As climate change advances the date of spring breakup in Hudson Bay, polar bears are coming ashore earlier. Since they would have lost some of their opportunities to hunt ringed seals from a sea ice platform, they may be deficient in energy. Subadult polar bears appear to come ashore before more mature individuals, and the earliest subadults are beginning to overlap the nesting period of the large colony of snow geese also occupying the Cape Churchill Peninsula.

Eavesdropping on Arctic birds
N. Boelman, New York Times, June 15, 2011. Natalie Boelman, an ecosystem ecologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, writes from the North Slope of Alaska, where she is studying the effects of climate change on the interactions among plants, insects, and migratory songbirds.

Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change
E. Post et al. Science (2009) 325(5946):1355-1358. Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity.

Ecological impacts of climate change
National Academy of Sciences, 2009. This booklet is based on the report Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2008), by the Committee on Ecological Impacts of Climate Change. (PDF 8.14 MB)

Ecological networks in a changing climate
G. Woodward et al. Advances in Ecological Research (2010) 42:71-138. Attempts to gauge the biological impacts of climate change have typically focused on the lower levels of organization (individuals to populations) rather than considering more complex multi-species systems, such as entire ecological networks. The authors evaluate the possibility that a few principal drivers underpin network-level responses to climate change and that these drivers can be studied to develop a more coherent theoretical framework than is currently provided by phenomenological approaches.

Ecological responses to recent climate change
G-R Walther et al. Nature (2002) 416:389-395. There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels.

Ecoregion: Polar/subpolar
This fact sheet published by the U.S. Global Change Research Program identifies unique characteristics of the polar and subpolar regions that may be affected by climate change. (PDF 822 KB)

Effects of climate change on birds
A.P. Møller et al., eds., Oxford University Press, 2010, 321 pages. This is an edited volume that brings together world experts to review the current level of knowledge in the field of climate change and birds, while simultaneously listing alternative hypotheses and weak points in current research.

Effects of ice cover on the behavioural patterns of aquatic-mating male bearded seals
S.M. Van Parijs et al. Animal Behaviour (2004) 68(1):89-96. The authors used vocalizations to examine the behavior of male bearded seals, Erignathus barbatus, in relation to ice cover over two consecutive years.

Effects of sea ice extent and food availability on spatial and temporal distribution of polar bears during the fall open-water period in the Southern Beaufort Sea
S. Schliebe et al. Polar Biology (2007) 31(8):999-1010. The authors investigated the relationship between sea ice conditions, food availability, and the fall distribution of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in terrestrial habitats of the Southern Beaufort Sea via weekly aerial surveys in 2000-2005.

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions
L.D. Hinzman et al. Climatic Change (2005) 72(3):251-298. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large-scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.

Expanding northward: Influence of climate change, forest connectivity, and population processes on a threatened species' range shift
S.J. Melles et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(1):17-31. To determine the relative effects of climate, forest availability, connectivity, and biotic processes such as immigration and establishment, the authors examine range changes occurring in a species of bird, the Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina), focusing predominantly on the periphery of the species' northern range in Canada but also examining data from the entire species' range.

Extinction: It's not just for polar bears
Report prepared by Center for Biological Diversity and Care for the Wild International, September 2010. This report chronicles the most profound climatic changes in the Arctic and the impacts those changes are already having on wildlife, and concludes with a roadmap of actions needed to protect the Arctic as we know it. (PDF 4.96 MB)

Extinction risk from climate change
C.D. Thomas et al. Nature (2004) 427(6970):145-148. Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction.

Extinctions expected to increase strongly over the century
ScienceDaily, November 25, 2010. The loss of biodiversity will continue in the 21st century. Global-scale extinctions will increase strongly, the average species abundance will decline, and their distribution will be disturbed.

Faces of Climate Change
Alaska Sea Grant Marine Advisory Program, 2011. These three short videos showcase the dramatic changes in Alaska's marine ecosystems through interviews with scientists and Alaska Natives. They were produced in partnership with Alaska Ocean Observing System, Alaska Marine Conservation Council, and COSEE Alaska.

• Introduction to Climate Change (MP4 5:55 min)
• Disappearing Sea Ice (MP4 10:45 min)
• Life on the Ice (MP4 7:33 min)

Facilitating adaptation to climate change and other stressors: Some options for the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge
Lecture #10 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented February 16, 2010, by Dr. John Morton, Kenai National Wildlife Refuge.

Facing a future of change: Wild migratory caribou and reindeer
A. Gunn et al. Arctic (2009) 62(3):iii-vi. Climate trends interact with, and may alter, the typical cyclic behavior of caribou abundance.

Fluctuations in circumpolar seabird populations linked to climate oscillations
D.B. Irons et al. Global Change Biology (2008) 14:1455-1463. Negative population trends in seabirds presumably indicate the alteration of underlying food webs. Hence, similar widespread fluctuations in response to climate shifts are likely for other ecosystem components (marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates).

Foraging distributions of little auks (Alle alle) across the Greenland Sea: Implications of present and future Arctic climate change
N. Karnovsky et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2010) 415:283-293. The Arctic is undergoing widespread warming. In order to understand the impact of climate change on Arctic marine food webs, the authors studied the at-sea distribution of foraging little auks in contrasting conditions of the Greenland Sea.

The future of arctic conservation
The Circle (2009), Issue 2. The Circle is published quarterly by the WWF International Arctic Programme. This edition of The Circle focuses on arctic conservation in times of rapid climate change. (PDF 2.89 MB)

Getting wise to the owl, a charismatic sentry in climate change
J. Robbins, New York Times, May 23, 2011. For 19 years, owl researcher Denver Holt has journeyed to Barrow, Alaska, each summer to map out the predator-prey relationship between the lemmings that crawl across the tundra and the white owls that hunt them from above. As he prepares for his 20th field season in the Arctic, he says that the snowy owl has a role to play in understanding ecological changes in one of the fastest changing places in the world.

Global biodiversity in a changing environment: Scenarios for the 21st century
F.S. Chapin III, O.E. Sala, E. Huber-Sannwald (eds.), Ecological Studies 152, Springer, 2001. The purpose of this book is to develop future scenarios of biodiversity for the twenty-first century in 10 terrestrial biomes and in freshwater ecosystems based on global scenarios of changes of the environment and the understanding by ecological experts of the sensitivity of biomes to these global changes.

Global declines of caribou and reindeer
L.S. Vors, M.S. Boyce. Global Change Biology (2009) 15:2626-2633. Caribou and reindeer herds are declining across their circumpolar range, coincident with increasing arctic temperatures and precipitation, and anthropogenic landscape change.

Global warming, biodiversity, and the Endangered Species Act
Video of a lecture at UC Berkeley in September 2009 by Kassie Siegel, staff attorney for Center for Biological Diversity. (41:31)

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence
S.C. Amstrup et al. Nature (2010) 468:955-958. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.

Grizzlies move into polar bear turf on Hudson Bay
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," February 26, 2010. Reporting in The Canadian Field-Naturalist, researchers write of spotting grizzly bears in Canada's Wapusk National Park, on the shores of Hudson Bay—land previously inhabited only by polar bears. Author Robert Rockwell discusses potential competition between the species.

Grolar bears and narlugas: Rise of the Arctic hybrids
B. Barcott, OnEarth, December 15, 2010. In 2006 an American hunter shot an animal in the far north of Canada's Northwest Territories that shared characteristics of a polar bear and a grizzly. The "grolar bear" has joined a growing list of cross-species couplings—beluga whales and narwhals, right whales and bowhead whales, various seal mixtures—all confirmed to varying degrees by scientists in the Arctic over the past two decades.

Gunter Weller on global warming and Alaska
D. Cutler. Alaska Business Monthly (2001) 17(9):10. All sectors of the Alaska economy will be affected in one way or another. It seems likely that the Alaska fisheries could be the biggest loser if the present climate trends continue and the predicted global warming occurs.

Has early ice clearance increased predation on breeding birds by polar bears?
P.A. Smith et al. Polar Biology (2010) 33(8)1149-1153. Past studies suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) consume terrestrial food only opportunistically and derive little nutritional benefit from it. Here, the authors present observations of at least six bears consuming large numbers of snow goose (Chen caerulescens) eggs at two locations in the eastern low Arctic in 2004 and 2006.

Hematology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (2005-2007): Biomarker for an Arctic ecosystem health sentinel
C.M. Kirk et al. EcoHealth (2010) 7(3):307-320. Declines in sea-ice habitats have resulted in declining stature, productivity, and survival of polar bears in some regions. Hematological values established here provide a necessary baseline for anticipated changes in health as Arctic temperatures warm and sea-ice declines accelerate.

High-Arctic ecosystem dynamics in a changing climate: Ten years of monitoring and research at Zackenberg Research Station, Northeast Greenland
H. Meltofte et al., eds. Advances in Ecological Research No. 40 (2008). This book is based on data collected during the past 10 years by Zaceknberg Ecological Research Operations (ZERO) at Zackenberg Research Station in Northeast Greenland. The volume offers a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of how climate variability is influencing an Arctic ecosystem and how Arctic ecosystems have inherent feedback mechanisms interacting with climate variability or change.

Historical analysis of sea ice conditions in M'Clintock Channel and the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut: Implications for ringed seal and polar bear habitat
D.G. Barber, J. Iacozza. Arctic (2004) 57(1):1-14. Sea ice is an integral part of the marine ecosystem in the Arctic and important habitat for ringed seals and polar bears. To study changes in sea ice characteristics indicative of ringed seal habitat (and linked, through predator/prey relationships, to polar bear habitat), this study examined historical changes in sea ice concentration and type within M'Clintock Channel and the Gulf of Boothia, two regions of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, during 1980-2000.

How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data
T. Mueller et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2011) DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00638.x. The aim of this study was to demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species. Study locations were Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, and Eastern Steppes in Mongolia.

Icing events trigger range displacement in a high-arctic ungulate
A. Stien et al. Ecology (2010)91(3):915-920. Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus plathyrynchus) have small home ranges and may therefore be vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events (ice layers limit access to plant forage) due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are "locked," Svalbard reindeer are faced with the decision of staying and live off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice.

Impacts of climate change on the seasonal distribution of migratory caribou
S. Sharma et al. Global Change Biology (2009) 15:2549-2562. Arctic ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global climate change as temperature and precipitation regimes are altered. An ecologically and socially highly important northern terrestrial species that may be impacted by climate change is the caribou, Rangifer tarandus.

Implications of climate change for northern Canada: Freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems
T.D. Prowse et al. Ambio (2009) 38(5):282-289. As the climate continues to change, there will be consequences for biodiversity shifts and for the ranges and distribution of many species with resulting effects on availability, accessibility, and quality of resources upon which human populations rely. This will have implications for the protection and management of wildlife, fish, and fisheries resources; protected areas; and forests.

Implications of warm temperatures and an unusual rain event for the survival of ringed seals on the coast of southeastern Baffin Island
I. Stirling, T.G. Smith. Arctic (2004) 57(1):59-67. The premature removal of protection offered by subnivean birth lairs may expose young ringed seal pups to high levels of predation, which may negatively affect populations of ringed seals and the polar bears that depend on them for food.

Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity
S.M. McMahon et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2011) 26(5):249-259. Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modeling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections.

In a warming Bering Sea, whither the walrus?
NPR's "Weekend Edition Sunday" aired this story by Alaska Public Radio Network's Annie Feidt on April 23, 2006.

Incorporating uncertainty about species' potential distributions under climate change into the selection of conservation areas with a case study from the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska
T. Fuller et al. Biological Conservation (2008) 141(6):1547-1559. This analysis presents a conservation planning framework for decisions under uncertainty and applies it to the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Uncertainty arises from variable distributional shifts of species' ranges due to climate change. The planning framework consists of a two-stage optimization model that selects a nominal conservation area network in the first stage and evaluates its performance under the climate scenarios in the second stage.

Indigenous peoples and traditional knowledge related to biological diversity and responses to climate change in the Arctic region
Brochure published by Ministry of the Environment of Finland, 2009. While the results of scientific studies on the impacts of climate change on Arctic species and ecosystems are useful, they present only one snapshot of a vast and complex system. Indigenous and traditional knowledge from the Arctic region reveals another view of life and lifestyles under threat. (PDF 1.36 MB)

Influences of large-scale climatic variability on reindeer population dynamics: Implications for reindeer husbandry in Norway
R.B. Weladji, Ø. Holand. Climate Research (2006) 32:119-127. The authors discuss predicted patterns of global climatic change in Norway and assess potential consequences for reindeer husbandry. They argue that, although it is clearly shown that local and global climate affect reindeer directly (e.g., increased energetic costs of moving through deep snow and in accessing forage through snow) and indirectly (e.g., effect on forage plant biomass and quality, level of insect harassment and associated parasitism), it is difficult to predict a general pattern of how future climate change will influence this species.

Inuit, polar bears, and sustainable use: Local, national, and international perspectives
M.M.R. Freeman, L. Foote (eds.), CCI Press, 2009, 252 pages. This book addresses four particular aspects of polar bear conservation, namely (1) the practice of conservation hunting of polar bears, (2) Inuit understanding of polar bears and their changing habitat, (3) public perceptions of polar bears and climate changes that appear to influence polar bear management decisions, and (4) analysis of existing polar bear management and governance programs.

Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high arctic?
D. Mech. Climatic Change (2004) 67(1):87-93. Global climate change may affect wolves in Canada's high arctic acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves).

Is the life cycle of high arctic aphids adapted to climate change?
M. Hullé et al. Polar Biology (2007) 31(9):1037-1042. Because temperature has risen substantially in Svalbard during the past 10-15 years and is predicted to rise further, budget requirements for a three-generation life cycle should be met more and more frequently and the impact of the resulting demographic increase should be easily measurable in field populations of A. svalbardicum. Surprisingly, this extra generation was not detected either in field populations surveyed for two consecutive years or in controlled conditions where temperature was manipulated.

Landward and eastward shift of Alaskan polar bear denning associated with recent sea ice changes
A.S. Fischbach et al. Polar Biology (2007) 30(11):1395-1405. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the northern Alaska region den in coastal areas and on offshore drifting ice. The authors evaluated changes in the distribution of polar bear maternal dens between 1985 and 2005, using satellite telemetry. They expect the proportion of polar bears denning in coastal areas will continue to increase, until such time as the autumn ice retreats far enough from shore that it precludes offshore pregnant females from reaching the Alaska coast in advance of denning.

Linking climate change to lemming cycles
K.L. Kausrud et al. Nature (2008) 456:93-97. The relationship between commonly available meteorological data and snow conditions indicates that changes in temperature and humidity, and thus conditions in the subnivean space, seem to markedly affect the dynamics of alpine rodents and their linked groups. The pattern of less regular rodent peaks, and corresponding changes in the overall dynamics of the alpine ecosystem, thus seems likely to prevail over a growing area under projected climate change.

A little less Arctic: Top predators in the world's largest northern inland sea, Hudson Bay
S.H. Ferguson et al., eds., Springer, 2010, 288 pages. This book brings together some of the world's leading Arctic scientists to present the current state of knowledge on the physical and biological characteristics of Hudson Bay and in particular the ecology of marine wildlife to highlight what information is required to better understand and adapt to the changes underway, and to forecast what will happen to marine wildlife of this vast inland sea in the future.

Local knowledge, subsistence harvests, and social-ecological complexity in James Bay
C. Peloquin, F. Berkes. Human Ecology (2009) 37(5):533-545. This paper examines how indigenous Cree hunters in James Bay, subarctic Canada, understand and deal with ecological complexity and dynamics, and how their understanding of uncertainty and variability shape subsistence activities.

Long-distance migration may help reduce infectious disease risks for many animal species
ScienceDaily, January 23, 2011. It's a common assumption that animal migration, like human travel across the globe, can transport pathogens long distances, in some cases increasing disease risks to humans. But in a paper just published in the journal Science, researchers report that in some cases animal migrations could actually help reduce the spread and prevalence of disease and may even promote the evolution of less virulent disease strains.

Long-distance swims are increasing mortality of polar bear cubs
Yale Environment 360, July 18, 2011. Rapid sea ice loss in the Arctic is forcing polar bears to swim ever-longer distances and is leading to greater mortality of their cubs, according to a new study.

Management and conservation of wildlife in a changing Arctic environment
Chapter 11 (pages 597-648) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. The effects of climate change on wildlife populations, their productivity, and their distributions will increasingly threaten arctic wildlife at the species, population, and ecosystem levels. Systems for management and conservation of wildlife in the Arctic will face new challenges and must become adaptable to the changes taking place in the natural environment accelerated by climate change. (PDF 2.08 MB)

Managing the National Wildlife Refuge system with climate change: The interaction of policy, perceptions and ecological knowledge
Lecture #4 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented May 27, 2009, by Dawn Magness, SCEP PhD Student, University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Marine mammal and seabird summer distribution and abundance in the fjords of northeast Cumberland Sound of Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada
K.M. Diemer et al. Polar Biology (2011) 34(1):41-48. Critical baseline population knowledge is required to properly assess the status of marine mammal and bird populations in the Canadian Arctic and the effects of climate trends on them. To address this need for one significant Arctic region, a boat-based marine mammal and seabird transect survey was conducted in Cumberland Sound fjords during summer 2008.

Marine range shifts and species introductions: Comparative spread rates and community impacts
C.J.B. Sorte et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2010) 19(3):303-316. Because it is well established that introduced species are a primary threat to global biodiversity, it follows that, just like introductions, range shifts have the potential to seriously affect biological systems. In addition, given that ranges shift faster in marine than terrestrial environments, marine communities might be affected faster than terrestrial ones as species shift with climate change.

Modeling approaches for predicting change under WILDCAST: Making progress in a data-poor world
B.G. Marcot. Alaska Park Science (2009) 8(2):90-94. A basic framework is suggested for knitting together models of climate change, vegetation, and wildlife habitats and species for use in the U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center's WILDCAST Program. The framework also addresses influence of climate change on key ecological functions of organisms and on ecosystem services of value to people.

Modeling marine protected areas for threatened eiders in a climatically changing Bering Sea
J.R. Lovvorn et al. Ecological Applications (2009) 19(6):1596-1613. To assess long-term changes in habitats that will support eiders, the authors linked data on benthic prey, sea ice, and weather from 1970 to 2001 with a spatially explicit simulation model of eider energy balance that integrated field, laboratory, and remote-sensing studies.

Monitoring the spatio-temporal dynamics of geometrid moth outbreaks in birch forest using MODIS-NDVI data
J.U. Jepsen et al. Remote Sensing of Environment (2009) 113(9):1939-1947. Defoliation caused by repeated outbreaks of cyclic geometrid moths is the most prominent natural disturbance factor in the northern-boreal birch forest. Evidence suggests that recent changes in outbreak distribution and duration can be attributed to climate warming.

Morbillivirus and toxoplasma exposure and association with hematological parameters for southern Beaufort Sea polar bears: Potential response to infectious agents in a sentinel species
C.M. Kirk et al. EcoHealth (2010) 7(3):321-331. As food webs change and human activities respond to a milder Arctic, exposure of polar bears and other Arctic marine organisms to infectious agents may increase. Because of the polar bear's status as Arctic ecosystem sentinel, polar bear health could provide an index of changing pathogen occurrence throughout the Arctic.

Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change
B.A. Minteer, J.P. Collins. Ecological Applications (2010) 20(7):1801-1804. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR), has divided many ecologists and conservationists.

New constellations of species change ecosystems
Science Daily, June 11, 2011. Human activities that are causing global climate changes and destroying habitats in nature are leading to the extinction of many species from Earth's ecosystems. At the same time, many species are expanding the range of their habitat.

New study reveals changes in the Arctic
PRI's "The World," March 18, 2010. A new study that examines the health of species native to the Arctic Circle brings mixed news. Anchor Jeb Sharp speaks with Mike Gill, co-author of the report.

Nobel laureate explores links between climate change, biodiversity
PBS NewsHour, December 18, 2009. Paul Solman speaks to a Nobel Prize winner about how a warming planet affects biodiversity.

Observations of mortality associated with extended open-water swimming by polar bears in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea
C. Monnett, J.S. Gleason. Polar Biology (2005) 29(8):681-687. The authors speculate that mortalities due to offshore swimming during late-ice (or mild ice) years may be an important and unaccounted source of natural mortality given energetic demands placed on individual bears engaged in long-distance swimming. They further suggest that drowning-related deaths of polar bears may increase in the future if the observed trend of regression of pack ice and/or longer open water periods continues.

On thin ice: The changing world of the polar bear
R. Ellis. Knopf, 2009, 416 pages. Polar bears are exceptionally well suited for hunting, especially when it comes to ringed seals, their favorite prey, which they can smell from over a mile away. But as the ice melts in the Arctic, the ability of polar bears to find the food they need to survive diminishes in spite of their incredible physical capacities. Listen to an interview with author Richard Ellis that aired on National Public Radio's "All Things Considered" November 22, 2009. Listen also to an interview by travel writer and radio host Rick Steeves from February 27, 2010.

Overwintering of terrestrial Arctic arthropods: The fauna of Svalbard now and in the future
M.L. Ávila-Jiménez et al. Polar Research (2010) 29(1):127-137. Four principal factors with an impact on overwintering of the terrestrial arthropod fauna are outlined here: (1) warmer winter temperatures, with an increased frequency of extreme events such as freeze-thaw cycles and surface icing; (2) changes in snow fall and snow lie; (3) pollutant load; and (4) dispersal of invertebrates to Svalbard.

Phenology, ontogeny and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions
L.H. Yang, V.H.W. Rudolf. Ecology Letters (2010) 13(1):1-10. The authors suggest an approach that integrates the phenology and ontogeny of species interactions with a fitness landscape to provide a common mechanistic framework for investigating phenological shifts.

Polar bear births could plummet with climate change
ScienceDaily, February 8, 2011. Researchers say projected reductions in the number of newborn cubs is a significant threat to the western Hudson Bay polar-bear population, and if climate change continues unabated the viability of the species across much of the Arctic will be in question.

Polar bear endangerment decision looms
NPR's "Morning Edition," May 14, 2008. Bush administration officials are under a court order to decide whether to add the polar bear to the list of endangered species. The decision will cap a three-year campaign by environmentalists to show that climate change has the potential to imperil wildlife. Critics say any listing is a bad idea.

Polar bear numbers set to fall
R. Courtland, Nature News, May 21, 2008. In a long-anticipated decision hailed as a victory by environmental groups, the United States declared the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) a 'threatened' species. But this heightened protection status may have little bearing on the animals' ultimate fate.

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006.
Ecological Applications (2011) 21(3):859-876. The authors used open-population capture-recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns.

Polar bear population struggles as sea ice melts
NPR's "Morning Edition," January 21, 2008. As global warming shrinks the Arctic sea ice, polar bears' habitat is literally melting.

Polar bears can't eat geese into extinction
ScienceDaily, November 4, 2010. As the Arctic warms, a new cache of resources, snow goose eggs, may help sustain the polar bear population for the foreseeable future. Results of a new study show that the advance in mean overlap of the two species gives an advantage to polar bears. But increased variability, also the result of global climate change, leads to an increased mismatch that is good news for snow geese.

Polar bears changing habitat in response to sea ice conditions
ScienceDaily, January 7, 2010. A long-term study showing the changes in habitat associations of polar bears in response to sea ice conditions in the southern Beaufort Sea has implications for polar bear management in Alaska.

Polar bears could survive on persisting ice
N. Jones, Nature News, December 15, 2010. Some summer sea ice is likely to persist in the Arctic into the next century, providing a last refuge for polar bears, seals, and other animals, researchers reported at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. But both ice and animals still face multiple threats—from oil spills and other pollution to extinction through cross-breeding between distinct animal populations.

Polar bears dying in years of early ice melt
S. Brown, Nature News, November 23, 2007. A census of polar bears in Canada's Hudson Bay has lent some hard numbers to the long-held fear that retreating sea ice is causing some bears to starve or drown.

Polar bears listed as 'threatened' due to loss of Arctic ice
PBS NewsHour, May 14, 2008. In a highly anticipated decision, the Interior Department on May 14, 2008, declared the polar bear "threatened" under the Endangered Species Act because of shrinking Arctic ice due to global warming. Two analysts consider the impact of the decision.

Polar bears still on thin ice, but cutting greenhouse gases now can avert extinction, experts say
ScienceDaily, December 15, 2010. Polar bears were added to the threatened species list nearly three years ago as their icy habitat showed steady, precipitous decline because of a warming climate. But it appears the Arctic icons aren't necessarily doomed after all.

Polar bears struggle to survive as Arctic climate changes
PBS NewsHour, November 25, 2008. As climate change threatens polar bears' survival, laws put in place to protect the bears are impacting the Inuit people who have long hunted them. ITN's ITV news reports on the plight of both polar bears and Native people in the Canadian Arctic.

Polar bears unlikely to survive in warmer world, biologists say
ScienceDaily, November 24, 2010. Biologists say that as polar bears lose habitat due to global warming they will be forced southward in search of alternative sources of food, where they will increasingly come into competition with grizzly bears.

Population genetic structure in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Hudson Bay, Canada: Implications of future climate change
A.E. Crompton et al. Biological Conservation (2008) 141(10):2528-2539. The primary habitat for polar bears is sea ice, yet, unlike most of the high Arctic, Hudson Bay undergoes a summer ice-free period that forces all bears ashore until ice forms again in fall. Predicted changes in the distribution and duration of sea ice in Hudson Bay suggest that gene flow among breeding 'groups' may be reduced in the future.

Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic
I. Stirling, C.L. Parkinson. Arctic (2006) 59(3):261-275. The authors hypothesize that, if the climate continues to warm as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), then polar bears in all five populations discussed in this paper will be increasingly food-stressed, and their numbers are likely to decline eventually, probably significantly so. As these populations decline, problem interactions between bears and humans will likely continue, and possibly increase, as the bears seek alternative food sources.

Possible impacts of climatic warming on polar bears
I. Stirling, A.E. Derocher. Arctic (1993) 46(3):240-245. If climatic warming occurs, the first impacts on polar bears (Ursus maritirnus) will be felt at the southern limits of their distribution, such as in James and Hudson bays, where the whole population is already forced to fast for approximately four months when the sea ice melts during the summer. Prolonging the ice-free period will increase nutritional stress on this population until they are no longer able to store enough fat to survive the ice-free period.

Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change
P.K. Molnár et al. Biological Conservation (2010) 143(7):1612-1622. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are predicted to be negatively affected by climate warming, but the timeframe and manner in which change to polar bear populations will occur remains unclear. Predictions incorporating climate change effects are necessary for proactive population management, the setting of optimal harvest quotas, and conservation status decisions.

Prediction of the distribution of Arctic-nesting pink-footed geese under a warmer climate scenario
R.A. Jensen et al. Global Change Biology (2008) 14:1-10. Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, the authors predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese.

Principles of conserving the Arctic's biodiversity
Chapter 10 (pages 539-596) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Climate change will result in changes in the productivity of ecosystems through photosynthesis and changes in the rates of decomposition. The balance between these two major processes will, to a large extent, determine the future nature of the arctic environment. (PDF 1.94 MB)

Projected large-scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change
R. Virkkala et al. Biological Conservation (2008) 141(5):1343-1353. Climate change is projected to be particularly strong in the northern latitudes. Thus, boreal or Arctic species are especially susceptible to the effects of climate warming. In this work, the authors forecasted changes in the distributions of 27 northern land bird species in the 21st century, based on predicted rates of climate change.

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century
C.V. Jay et al. Polar Biology (2011) 34(7):1065-1084. Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus, a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. The authors developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century.

Rapid advancement of spring in the high Arctic
T.T. Høye et al. Current Biology (2007) 17(12):R449-R451. The authors document extremely rapid climate-induced advancement of flowering, emergence, and egg-laying in a wide array of species in a high Arctic ecosystem. The strong responses and the large variability within species and taxa illustrate how easily biological interactions may be disrupted by abiotic forcing, and how dramatic responses to climatic changes can be for Arctic ecosystems.

Rapid northwards expansion of a forest insect pest attributed to spring phenology matching with sub-Arctic birch
J.U. Jepsen et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(6):2071-2083. Climate-induced range expansions have been shown for two irruptive forest defoliators, the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata, causing more extensive forest damage in sub-Arctic Fennoscandia. Here, the authors document a rapid northwards expansion of a novel irruptive geometrid, Agriopis aurantiaria, into the same region, with the aim of providing insights into mechanisms underlying the recent geometrid range expansions and subsequent forest damage.

Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming
I-C Chen et al. Science (2011) 333(6045):1024-1026. The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate. The range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species.

Recent changes in body size of the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra in Sweden
Y. Yom-Tov et al. Ambio (2010) 39(7):496-503. The authors hypothesize that a temporal increase in body size of Swedish otters is related to a combination of factors, including reduced energy expenditure resulting from increasing ambient temperature, and increased food availability from longer ice-free periods.

Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline
K.D. Rode et al. Ecological Applications (2010) 20(3):768-782. The authors tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006.

Refugia: Identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change
G. Keppel et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography (2011) DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00686.x. Refugia are habitats that components of biodiversity retreat to, persist in, and can potentially expand from under changing environmental conditions. However, the study and discussion of refugia has often been ad hoc and descriptive in nature. The authors therefore: (1) provide a habitat-based concept of refugia, and (2) evaluate methods for the identification of refugia.

A scientist's blog from the Arctic: Unraveling mysteries of migration
S. Zack, Yale Environment 360, July 12, 2011. Steve Zack, a biologist with the New York–based Wildlife Conservation Society, works extensively in Arctic Alaska. In the first of a series of reports for Yale Environment 360, Zack describes how he and his colleagues are using the latest in miniaturized technology to track the remarkable global migrations of birds that nest on Alaska's North Slope. Subsequent blog posts will touch on how global warming is altering the region's ecosystems.

Sea ice and migration of the Dolphin and Union caribou herd in the Canadian Arctic: An uncertain future
K.G. Poole et al. Arctic (2010) 63(4):414-428. Caribou of the Dolphin and Union herd migrate across the sea ice between Victoria Island and the adjacent Canadian Arctic mainland twice each year, southward in fall-early winter and northward in late winter-spring. As a result of warmer temperatures, sea ice between Victoria Island and the mainland now forms 8-10 days later than it did in 1982, raising questions about the impact of delayed ice formation on the ecology of the herd.

Spider assemblages across elevational and latitudinal gradients in the Yukon Territory, Canada
J.J. Bowden, C.M. Buddle. Arctic (2010) 63(3):261-272. Arthropod assemblages in the Arctic are set for substantial changes in response to climate change, yet we know little about the ecological structure of many groups in the North. This study tested the effects of elevation and latitude on northern spider assemblages by sampling along nine mountains across three latitudes in the Yukon Territory, Canada.

Strategies for managing the effects of climate change on wildlife and ecosystems
Report prepared by the H. John Heinz III Center For Science, Economics, and the Environment, 2008. There is considerable interest on the part of wildlife managers and conservation practitioners in identifying strategies that could be used to assist wildlife species and natural communities in the process of adapting to the effects of climate change. (PDF 622 KB)

The thawing of Alaska
BBC News, November 10, 1998. BBC environmental correspondent Robert Pigott reports on habitat changes caused by Alaska's melting glaciers.

Travelling through a warming world: Climate change and migratory species
R.A. Robinson et al. Endangered Species Research (2009) 7:87-99. Long-distance migrations are among the wonders of the natural world, but this multitaxon review shows that the characteristics of species that undertake such movements appear to make them particularly vulnerable to detrimental impacts of climate change.

Trophic matches and mismatches: Can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay?
R.F. Rockwell et al. Oikos (2011) 120(5):696-709. Climate-change-driven advances in the date of sea ice breakup will increasingly lead to a loss of spring polar bear foraging opportunities on ringed seal pups, creating a phenological trophic 'mismatch.' However, the same shift will lead to a new 'match' between polar bears and ground nesting birds. This new match will be especially prevalent along the Cape Churchill Peninsula of western Hudson Bay where both polar bears and nesting snow geese are abundant.

A troubling decline in the caribou herds of the Arctic
E. Struzik. Environment 360 (2010). Across the Far North, populations of caribou, an indispensable source of food and clothing for indigenous people, are in steep decline. Scientists point to rising temperatures and a resource-development boom as the prime culprits.

Two mechanisms of aquatic and terrestrial habitat change along an Alaskan Arctic coastline
C.D. Arp et al. Polar Biology (2010) 33(12):1629-1640. Arctic habitats at the interface between land and sea are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The northern Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (N-TLSA), a coastal plain ecosystem along the Beaufort Sea in northern Alaska, is experiencing increasing rates of coastline erosion and storm surge flooding far inland, resulting in lake drainage and conversion of freshwater lakes to estuaries. These physical mechanisms are affecting upland tundra as well.

Unusual predation attempts of polar bears on ringed seals in the southern Beaufort Sea: Possible significance of changing spring ice conditions
I. Stirling et al. Arctic (2008) 61(1):14-22. In April and May 2003 through 2006, unusually rough and rafted sea ice extended for several tens of kilometers offshore in the southeastern Beaufort Sea from about Atkinson Point to the Alaska border. Hunting success of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) seeking seals was low despite extensive searching for prey.

Using landscape genetics to support climate change adaptation
Lecture #11 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented March 16, 2010, by Jeffrey Olsen, PhD, US Fish & Wildlife Conservation Genetics Laboratory.

Walruses hauling out near Point Lay again
A. Feidt, Alaska Public Radio Network, September 14, 2011.

Walruses move ashore as Arctic ice retreats
NPR's "All Things Considered" aired this story by Alaska Public Radio Network's Annie Feidt on January 4, 2008.

Walruses swarm beaches as ice melts
National Geographic video, September 27, 2010. Thousands of walruses gathered together in a dangerous "haul out" on the coast of Alaska in September 2010. Scientists say the walruses came ashore in such large numbers because their normal habitats, Arctic ice floes, are melting.

Warmer summers could create challenges for nesting Arctic seabirds
ScienceDaily, March 24, 2010. Warmer, wetter weather in the Canadian Arctic could create problems for nesting seabirds, say a team of Canadian scientists who, between them, have spent over 7,000 days observing birds in the North.

Wayward whale not a fluke
N. Drake, Nature News, May 4, 2011. The sighting of a lone gray whale last year off the beaches of Israel, and then again near Spain, came as a surprise to many. A group of researchers now suggests that the sighting might indicate a wider trend: the mixing of northern Atlantic and Pacific marine ecosystems, made possible by the climate-driven depletion of Arctic sea ice.

What price the caribou?
C. Tesar et al. Northern Perspectives (2007) 31(1). The theme of this issue of Northern Perspectives is the impact of declining caribou herds on the well-being of the aboriginal residents of northern Canada.

When rain falls on snow, Arctic animals may starve
NPR's "Morning Edition," July 28, 2009. When wildlife biologists visited a remote spot in Canada called Banks Island in the spring of 2004, they discovered thousands upon thousands of dead musk oxen. It took years to determine the cause. They called it "rain-on-snow"—the worst case of it ever documented.

A wild solution to climate change
UAA podcast. Climate change, biodiversity, environmental conservation, the beauty of the natural world—all of these are topics that Thomas E. Lovejoy, Ph.D., knows very well. On Tuesday, October 12, Lovejoy gave a free talk entitled "A Wild Solution to Climate Change." Listen to it here.

Wildlife response to environmental Arctic change
Lecture #8 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented December 9, 2009, by Philip Martin, Fish & Wildlife Biologist, Fairbanks Fish & Wildlife Field Office. Click here for a full report.

With climate changes, polar bear and brown bear lineages intertwine
ScienceDaily, July 7, 2011. Polar bears' unique characteristics allow them to survive in one of the most extreme environments on Earth, but that survival is now threatened as rising temperatures and melting ice reshape the Arctic landscape. Now it appears that the stress of climate change, occurring both long ago and today, may be responsible for surprising twists in the bears' history and future as well.

Wolverine population threatened by climate change
ScienceDaily, February 3, 2011. Climate change is likely to imperil the wolverine in two ways: reducing or eliminating the springtime snow cover that they rely on to protect and shelter newborn kits, and increasing August temperatures well beyond what the species may be able to tolerate.

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Stewardship

Alaskan meltdown: On the frontlines of climate change
B. Sherwonit. National Parks (2004) 78(3):24-29. Spread across 32 ecoregions, Alaska's 54 million acres of national parklands are being affected by global warming in many ways, some of them obvious, others subtle. As wild landscapes change, plant communities, wildlife populations, and humans dependent on park resources must adapt or lose their niche in the ecosystem.

Arctic biodiversity trends 2010: Selected indicators of change
Report by CAFF International Secretariat, Akureyri, Iceland, May 2010. In 2008, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) passed a resolution expressing "extreme concern" over the impacts of climate change on Arctic indigenous peoples, other communities, and biodiversity. It highlighted the potentially significant consequences of changes in the Arctic. Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010: Selected Indicators of Change provides evidence that some of those anticipated impacts on Arctic biodiversity are already occurring. (PDF 18.57 MB)

Arctic fisheries conservation and management: Initial steps of reform of the international legal framework
E.J. Molenaar. Submitted to Yearbook of Polar Law, March 2009. Changes in the arctic climate system extend to arctic marine ecosystems and are likely to create new or expanded fishing opportunities. This article assesses the adequacy of the current international legal and policy framework for Arctic fisheries conservation and management, both substantively and institutionally, in responding to the likely and potential impacts that such new or expanded fishing opportunities could have on target and nontarget species, the broader marine ecosystem, and the livelihoods of indigenous peoples.

Arctic marine synthesis: Atlas of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas
M.A. Smith, Audubon Alaska and Oceana, 2010. This atlas provides a holistic look at the dynamic Arctic Ocean ecosystem. It is designed as a tool for scientists and policymakers in setting conservation priorities and designing balanced management plans in this sensitive Arctic region.

Arctic sea partially closed to fishing
NPR's "Day to Day," February 6. 2009. The Arctic ice pack is breaking up. Bad news for the global climate, but good news for commercial fishing fleets looking for untapped sources of wild seafood. Not so fast. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council voted to close the Arctic waters off northern Alaska to fishing. This is in effect until scientists know more about the health and sustainability of the fish living under the now-retreating ice pack.

Beyond predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate
T.P. Dawson et al. Science (2011) 332(6025):53-58. Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. The authors introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses.

Biodiversity: Climate change and the ecologist
W. Thuiller. Nature (2007) 448:550-552. The evidence for rapid climate change now seems overwhelming. Global temperatures are predicted to rise by up to 4°C by 2100, with associated alterations in precipitation patterns. Assessing the consequences for biodiversity, and how they might be mitigated, is a grand challenge in ecology.

Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services
H. Mooney. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2009) 1(1):46-54. Stresses imposed by climate change in the coming years will require extraordinary adaptation. We need to track the changing status of ecosystems, deepen our understanding of the biological underpinnings for ecosystem service delivery, and develop new tools and techniques for maintaining and restoring resilient biological and social systems.

Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change
C.M. Sgrò et al. Evolutionary Applications (2011) 4(2):326-337. From an evolutionary perspective, landscapes need to allow in situ selection and capture high levels of genetic variation essential for responding to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. The authors summarize ideas that need to be considered in planning for evolutionary resilience.

Building resilience and adaptation to manage Arctic change
F.S. Chapin III et al. Ambio (2006) 35(4):198-202. Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socioecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions).

Changing the Arctic: Adding immediate protection to the equation
F. Huettmann, S. Hazlett. Alaska Park Science (2009) 8(2):95-96. The warming of the Arctic, the prospect of an ice-free maritime route across the top of the world, and the International Polar Year (IPY) have piqued an interest in the Arctic not previously seen. The authors describe and assess the existing protection schema and the pros and cons of increased protection in the Arctic, as well as how it links with global sustainability in monetary, biodiversity, and other terms.

Climate change and Arctic sustainable development: Scientific, social, cultural and educational challenges
Report and recommendations from an international expert meeting, Novotel Monte Carlo, Monaco, March 2009. The rapid rate of climatic change in the Arctic, coupled with the potential increased transmission of invasive species, greater industrialization, and rapid social change, makes understanding and conserving Arctic biodiversity an ever greater challenge. (PDF 210 KB)

Climate change and biodiversity
T.E. Lovejoy, L. Hannah (eds.), Yale University, 2005. As human-induced climate change accelerates, scientists and policymakers involved with biodiversity conservation need authoritative information in order to design effective plans and responses. This book, written for the specialist as well as the concerned citizen, presents a comprehensive view of the newest research and thinking on climate change and biological diversity.

Climate change and biodiversity: A public policy imperative
Video of a lecture presented as part of Northwestern University's Science Outreach Series: "Global Warming—A Threat to Biodiversity" in October 2005. Presenter Thomas E. Lovejoy, who coined the term "biological diversity," is president of the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment. (35:03)

Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach
I. Omann et al. Ecological Economics (2009) 69(1):24-31. Based on an analysis using the DPSIR framework, this paper discusses some of the important socioeconomic driving forces of climate change, with a focus on energy use and transportation. The paper also analyzes observed and potential changes of climate and the pressures they exert on biodiversity, the changes in biodiversity, the resulting impacts on ecosystem functions, and possible policy responses.

Climate change, biodiversity conservation and protected area planning in Canada
C.J. Lemieux, D.J. Scott. Canadian Geographer (2005) 49(4):384-397. Vegetation-modeling results project that 37-48 percent of Canada's protected areas could experience a change in terrestrial biome type under doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide conditions.

Climate change hits Alaska's national parks
Y. Rosen. Reuters, February 14, 2011. Since the mid-1970s, Alaska has warmed at three times the rate of the Lower 48 states, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. And with nearly two-thirds of U.S. national parkland located in Alaska, the issue of climate change is especially pressing there, officials say.

Comprehensive conservation planning to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services in Canadian boreal regions under a warming climate and increasing exploitation
D.W. Schindler, P.G. Lee. Biological Conservation (2010) 143(7):1571-1586. Boreal regions contain more than half of the carbon in forested regions of the world and over 60% of the world's surface freshwater. Carbon storage and the flood control and water filtration provided by freshwaters and wetlands have recently been identified as the most important ecosystem services provided by boreal regions. Climate warming, via its effect on permafrost melting, insect damage, and forest fire, threatens to trigger large positive carbon feedbacks that may enhance the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, further amplifying climate warming.

Connecting landscapes into the future: A regional strategic habitat conservation climate change project
Lecture #3 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented April 22, 2009, by Karen Murphy, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (R7) Regional Fire Ecologist, Division of Refuges.

Conservation and management of polar bear and walrus in a warming climate
Lecture #5 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented September 16, 2009, by Joel Garlich-Miller, Wildlife Biologist, Marine Mammal Management, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (Alaska).

Conserving biodiversity under climate change: The rear edge matters
A. Hampe, R.J. Petit. Ecology Letters (2005) 8(5):461-467. Modern climate change is producing poleward range shifts of numerous taxa, communities, and ecosystems worldwide. The response of species to changing environments is likely to be determined largely by population responses at range margins. In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied.

Ecological impacts of climate change
National Academy of Sciences, 2009. This booklet is based on the report Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2008), by the Committee on Ecological Impacts of Climate Change. (PDF 8.14 MB)

Ecosystems and global climate change: A review of potential impacts on U.S. terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity
Report prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, December 2000. This is the fifth in a series of Pew Center reports examining the potential impacts of climate change on the U.S. environment. It details the very real possibility that warming over this century will jeopardize the integrity of many of the terrestrial ecosystems on which we depend. (PDF 728 KB)

Effects of climatic variability on three fishing economies in high-latitude regions: Implications for fisheries policies
J.R. McGoodwin. Marine Policy (2007) 31(1):40-55. Research exploring how climatic variability impacts fishing economies in high-latitude regions was conducted in south-central Iceland and southwest Alaska during 2001-2004. Important differences were found regarding the economic impacts of climatic variations in the commercial economies in Iceland and Alaska, versus in the native subsistence economies in Alaska.

Effects of land use, urbanization, and climate variability on coastal eutrophication in the Baltic Sea
C. Savage et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2010) 55(3):1033-1046. Climate variability has become more important as a factor influencing coastal eutrophication in recent decades, explaining 14% of the variance in the algal data since 1975. Both urban and agricultural sources of nutrients have degraded water quality, illustrating the need for cooperation between stakeholders at regional levels to achieve "good ecological status" in the Baltic coastal environment.

Environmental change and potential impacts: Applied research priorities for Alaska's North Slope
B. Streever et al. Arctic (2011) 64(3):390-397. Alaska's North Slope is at the forefront of global climate change. Appropriate management of the biotic and abiotic resources of the North Slope requires information that can be gained only through applied research. The authors provide a brief history of applied research on the North Slope, introduce the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) as an organization tasked with improving the coordination of science across the region, and posit applied science priorities that are essential for successful and informed management.

Extinction: It's not just for polar bears
Report prepared by Center for Biological Diversity and Care for the Wild International, September 2010. This report chronicles the most profound climatic changes in the Arctic and the impacts those changes are already having on wildlife, and concludes with a roadmap of actions needed to protect the Arctic as we know it. (PDF 4.96 MB)

The future of arctic conservation
The Circle (2009), Issue 2. The Circle is published quarterly by the WWF International Arctic Programme. This edition of The Circle focuses on arctic conservation in times of rapid climate change. (PDF 2.89 MB)

The future of the oceans past
J.B.C. Jackson. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2010) 365(1558):3765-3778. Today, overfishing, pollution, and increases in greenhouse gases are causing great changes to ocean environments and ecosystems. Some of these changes are potentially reversible on very short time scales, but warming and ocean acidification will intensify before they decline even with immediate reduction in emissions.

Global warming, biodiversity, and the Endangered Species Act
Video of a lecture at UC Berkeley in September 2009 by Kassie Siegel, staff attorney for Center for Biological Diversity. (41:31)

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence
S.C. Amstrup et al. Nature (2010) 468:955-958. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.

Grey seals do not prevent cod recovery in the Baltic Sea
Science Daily, July 18, 2011. Around ten years ago, the cod stock in the Baltic Sea hit record-low numbers due to overexploitation, oxygen depletion, and decreased salinity. But in recent years, cod numbers have increased due to some good years of cod reproduction, and a fishing management plan with effective regulation of the fisheries. In order to investigate how cod in the Baltic Sea can be affected by grey seals, climate change, and exploitation in the future, researchers made a number of simulations of future scenarios.

High-latitude sustainability: Options for enhancing the resilience of northern countries to rapid social and environmental change: A message to policy makers
O. Ullsten et al. Ambio (2004) 33(6):343 The eight arctic and boreal nations are now experiencing unprecedented environmental and social changes. The following seven papers in this Ambio issue summarize results that explain why northern countries might be either unusually resilient or vulnerable to these changes. These papers result from a meeting sponsored by the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry and the International Arctic Research Center to address high-latitude sustainability:

• Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change (F.S. Chapin III et al.)
• The dynamics of ecosystems, biodiversity management and social institutions at high northern latitudes (T. Elmqvist et al.)
• Past, current and future fire frequency in the Canadian boreal forest: Implications for sustainable forest management (Y. Bergeron et al.)
• Global change and the boreal forest: Thresholds, shifting states or gradual change? (F.S Chapin III et al.)
• Institutional frameworks for sustainability? A comparative analysis of the forest sectors of Russia and the Baltic states (L. Carlsson, M. Lazdinis)
• Bringing feedback and resilience of high-latitude ecosystems into the corporate boardroom (G. Whiteman et al.)
• Geographic variations in anthropogenic drivers that influence the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems (B.C. Forbes et al.)

How will climate change alter fishery governance: Insights from seven international case studies
A. McIlgorm et al. Marine Policy (2010) 34(1):170-177. The case studies reveal governance issues that indicate adaptation will involve more flexible fishery management regimes, schemes for capacity adjustment, catch limitation, and alternative fishing livelihoods for fishers. Where fishery governance systems have been less developed, fisheries are less able to adapt to climate change impacts.

The human dimensions of marine mammal management in a time of rapid change: Comparing policies in Canada, Finland and the United States
A.L. Lovecraft et al. Marine Policy (2011) 35(4):427-558. This special section addresses marine mammal management in a time of rapid climatic change. It is a series of complementary case studies that (1) examine the social drivers affecting marine mammal conservation and policy implementation in the Arctic, (2) link these cases to established theories and prior scientific work on social change, and (3) identify general principles for the design of policy strategies that can promote positive resilience to changes now experienced in high-latitude regions.

• Putting the US polar bear debate into context: The disconnect between old policy and new problems (C.L. Meek)
• Marine mammal co-management in Canada's Arctic: Knowledge co-production for learning and adaptive capacity (A. Dalea, D. Armitage)
• Co-existence of seals and fisheries? Adaptation of a coastal fishery for recovery of the Baltic grey seal (R. Varjopuro)
• Polar bear management, sport hunting and Inuit subsistence at Clyde River, Nunavut (G.W. Wenzel)
• Adaptive governance and the human dimensions of marine mammal management: Implications for policy in a changing North (C.L. Meek et al.)

Implications of climate change for northern Canada: Freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems
T.D. Prowse et al. Ambio (2009) 38(5):282-289. As the climate continues to change, there will be consequences for biodiversity shifts and for the ranges and distribution of many species with resulting effects on availability, accessibility, and quality of resources upon which human populations rely. This will have implications for the protection and management of wildlife, fish, and fisheries resources; protected areas; and forests.

Incorporating uncertainty about species' potential distributions under climate change into the selection of conservation areas with a case study from the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska
T. Fuller et al. Biological Conservation (2008) 141(6):1547-1559. This analysis presents a conservation planning framework for decisions under uncertainty and applies it to the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Uncertainty arises from variable distributional shifts of species' ranges due to climate change. The planning framework consists of a two-stage optimization model that selects a nominal conservation area network in the first stage and evaluates its performance under the climate scenarios in the second stage.

Indigenous peoples and traditional knowledge related to biological diversity and responses to climate change in the Arctic region
Brochure published by Ministry of the Environment of Finland, 2009. While the results of scientific studies on the impacts of climate change on Arctic species and ecosystems are useful, they present only one snapshot of a vast and complex system. Indigenous and traditional knowledge from the Arctic region reveals another view of life and lifestyles under threat. (PDF 1.36 MB)

Living marine resources: Evolution of living resources and resource-dependent systems in response to rapid external forcing
This webpage from North by 2020, an International Polar Year initiative, looks at ways to bring together the experiences and expertise of as many partners as possible toward a common understanding and vision for effective ways to address future challenges of cooperatively and effectively managing the changing living marine resources of the Bering and Chukchi seas.

Long-term air quality monitoring in Denali National Park and Preserve
A. Blakesley. Alaska Park Science (2007) 6(2):18-21. While Denali's air quality is consistently among the cleanest recorded in the nationwide monitoring networks, small amounts of international airborne contaminants are measured in the park each year. With global pollution projected to increase over time, Denali's clean air is dependent on international as well as national efforts to limit emission increases.

Management and conservation of wildlife in a changing Arctic environment
Chapter 11 (pages 597-648) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. The effects of climate change on wildlife populations, their productivity, and their distributions will increasingly threaten arctic wildlife at the species, population, and ecosystem levels. Systems for management and conservation of wildlife in the Arctic will face new challenges and must become adaptable to the changes taking place in the natural environment accelerated by climate change. (PDF 2.08 MB)

Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests
F.S. Chapin III et al. Ambio (2007) 36(7):528-533. Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species.

Managing the National Wildlife Refuge system with climate change: The interaction of policy, perceptions and ecological knowledge
Lecture #4 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented May 27, 2009, by Dawn Magness, SCEP PhD Student, University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Minimizing extinctions in a changing climate
Science Daily, September 18, 2011. More species could be saved from extinction under climate change thanks to a new model scientists have developed to guide allocation of conservation funding.

Modelling the potential impacts of climate change and human activities on the sustainability of marine resources
M. Barange et al. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2010) 2(5-6):326-333. Emerging models exploring the synergistic dual exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change and human activity demonstrate firstly the explicit inclusion of humans is essential to provide meaningful and realistic climate change projections and, secondly, effective tools for adaptation and mitigation strategies cannot be developed in their absence.

Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change
B.A. Minteer, J.P. Collins. Ecological Applications (2010) 20(7):1801-1804. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR), has divided many ecologists and conservationists.

New conservation model emerges in Canada's boreal
C. Pala, The Daily Climate, July 19, 2010. An unprecedented effort to set aside huge swathes of Canada's boreal forest prompts all sides to rethink development goals, and for the first time some of the components have climate change mitigation as a key objective.

Norwegian Arctic islands hold biodiversity bank
PBS NewsHour, September 13, 2007. A vault in the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, Norway, contains samples of the world's most important seeds, protecting the world's biodiversity in the event of a major disaster. Independent Television News reports on the project.

Nunavik Inuit perspectives on beluga whale management in the Canadian Arctic
M. Tyrrell. Human Organization (2008) 67(3):322-334. Since the mid-1980s the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) has endeavored to restore and maintain beluga populations in Nunavik, northern Quebec. In the past decade, these conservation practices have increasingly impinged on the hunting of belugas by Inuit and, by extension, the social and cultural practices within which beluga hunting is situated.

Ongoing global biodiversity loss unstoppable with protected areas alone
Science Daily, July 29, 2011. Continued reliance on a strategy of setting aside land and marine territories as "protected areas" is insufficient to stem global biodiversity loss, according to a comprehensive assessment.

Planning to save a changing world: Alaska biologist reviews far north climate change
A. Powell, Harvard Gazette, April 9, 2009. Terry Chapin, professor of ecology at the University of Alaska's Institute of Arctic Biology, gave an overview of global warming's effects on the United States' northernmost state during a lecture titled "Sustainability in a Changing World: Concepts and Policy Strategies to Address Climate Change in Alaska," which was part of the Harvard University Center for the Environment's Biodiversity, Ecology and Climate Change lecture series.

Polar bear endangerment decision looms
NPR's "Morning Edition," May 14, 2008. Bush administration officials are under a court order to decide whether to add the polar bear to the list of endangered species. The decision will cap a three-year campaign by environmentalists to show that climate change has the potential to imperil wildlife. Critics say any listing is a bad idea.

Polar bear numbers set to fall
R. Courtland, Nature News, May 21, 2008. In a long-anticipated decision hailed as a victory by environmental groups, the United States declared the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) a 'threatened' species. But this heightened protection status may have little bearing on the animals' ultimate fate.

Polar bears listed as 'threatened' due to loss of Arctic ice
PBS NewsHour, May 14, 2008. In a highly anticipated decision, the Interior Department on May 14, 2008, declared the polar bear "threatened" under the Endangered Species Act because of shrinking Arctic ice due to global warming. Two analysts consider the impact of the decision.

Polar bears still on thin ice, but cutting greenhouse gases now can avert extinction, experts say
ScienceDaily, December 15, 2010. Polar bears were added to the threatened species list nearly three years ago as their icy habitat showed steady, precipitous decline because of a warming climate. But it appears the Arctic icons aren't necessarily doomed after all.

A preliminary assessment of threats to Arctic marine mammals and their conservation in the coming decades
H.P. Huntington. Marine Policy (2009) 33(1):77-82. Over the next several decades, arctic marine mammals will face threats from six areas of human influence: climate change, environmental contaminants, offshore oil and gas activities, shipping, hunting, and commercial fisheries. This paper reviews these factors, the nature and magnitude of the threats they pose, current scientific understanding and management of those threats, and the potential for effective conservation action.

Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest
P.W. Mote et al. Climatic Change (2003) 61(1-2):45-88. The impacts of year-to-year and decade-to-decade climatic variations on some of the Pacific Northwest's key natural resources can be quantified to estimate sensitivity to regional climatic changes expected as part of anthropogenic global climatic change.

Preserving 4 percent of the ocean could protect most marine mammal species, study finds
Science Daily, August 30, 2011. Preserving just 4 percent of the ocean could protect crucial habitat for the vast majority of marine mammal species, from sea otters to blue whales, according to researchers at Stanford University and the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

Principles of conserving the Arctic's biodiversity
Chapter 10 (pages 539-596) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Climate change will result in changes in the productivity of ecosystems through photosynthesis and changes in the rates of decomposition. The balance between these two major processes will, to a large extent, determine the future nature of the arctic environment. (PDF 1.94 MB)

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration
J. Battin et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 2007. Throughout the world, efforts are under way to restore watersheds, but restoration planning rarely accounts for future climate change.

Prospects for sustaining freshwater biodiversity in the 21st century: Linking ecosystem structure and function
D. Dudgeon. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2010) 2(5-6):422-430. A higher proportion of freshwater species are threatened to extinction than their terrestrial or marine counterparts. Anthropocene trajectories of rising human population growth and water consumption will be exacerbated by climate change impacts and consequential environmental alterations which, in combination with existing stressors, will lead to further extinctions.

Reindeer management during the colonization of Sami lands: A long-term perspective of vulnerability and adaptation strategies
I. Brännlund, P. Axelsson. Global Environmental Change (2011). Reindeer husbandry's strong connection to the land, together with the ongoing climate-change debate, has generated growing interest in its socio-ecological resilience and vulnerability. Here, using historical sources, the authors analyze the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry (and the Sami societies that depended on it) in Sweden during the 19th century, demonstrating that, although reindeer management was a much more diverse enterprise at that time than it is now, the major adaptation strategy and constraining forces were similar to those of today.

Research planning in the face of change: The human role in reindeer/caribou systems
G. Kofinas et al. Polar Research (2000) 19(1):3-21. In February 1999, eighty scientists, reindeer/caribou users, and resource managers gathered in Rovaniemi, Finland, for an interdisciplinary workshop to develop a circumpolar research plan that addressed the sustainability of human/reindeer/caribou systems.

Secret inner workings of the Arctic LCC revealed
Lecture #15 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented January 13, 2011, by Greg Balogh, Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Coordinator.

Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: Concepts, issues and management responses
R.I. Perry et al. Journal of Marine Systems (2010) 79(3-4):427-435. Modern fisheries research and management must understand and take account of the interactions between climate and fishing, rather than try to disentangle their effects and address each separately. These interactions are significant drivers of change in exploited marine systems and have ramifications for ecosystems and those who depend on the services they provide.

Shifting climate, altered niche, and a dynamic conservation strategy for yellow cedar in the North Pacific coastal rainforest
Paul E. Hennon et al. BioScience (2012) 62(2):147-158. The authors document their approaches to resolving the causes of tree death, which they explain as a cascade of interacting topographic, forest-structure, and microclimate factors that act on a unique vulnerability of yellow cedar to fine-root freezing. Research on yellow-cedar decline is offered as a template for understanding and adapting to climate change for other climate-forest issues.

State of the Arctic coast 2010: Scientific review and outlook
D.L. Forbes, ed. (2011). This report addresses a recognized need for a more detailed assessment of the impacts of environmental and social change in the Arctic coastal zone. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2005) provided an overall synthesis of observed and anticipated impacts on social and ecological systems in the Arctic, but did not attempt a focused treatment of the coastal zone.

The state of climate change adaptation in Canada's protected areas sector
C.J. Lemieux et al. Canadian Geographer (2011) 55(3):301-317. The World Commission on Protected Areas asserts that conservation actions are likely to fail unless they are adjusted to take account of climate change and emphasizes the need for protected-areas agencies to begin mainstreaming climate change into policy, planning, and management. This article presents the results of a University of Waterloo and Canadian Council on Ecological Areas survey on the state of climate change adaptation in Canada's protected-areas sector.

Strategies for managing the effects of climate change on wildlife and ecosystems
Report prepared by the H. John Heinz III Center For Science, Economics, and the Environment, 2008. There is considerable interest on the part of wildlife managers and conservation practitioners in identifying strategies that could be used to assist wildlife species and natural communities in the process of adapting to the effects of climate change. (PDF 622 KB)

Using landscape genetics to support climate change adaptation
Lecture #11 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented March 16, 2010, by Jeffrey Olsen, PhD, US Fish & Wildlife Conservation Genetics Laboratory.

Vulnerable Arctic areas need protection as region warms, report says
Yale Environment 360, April 27, 2011. A new report identifies 13 areas of the Arctic most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and calls for their protection as sea ice melts and industrial activity moves into newly accessible areas.

Ways to help and ways to hinder: Governance for effective adaptation to an uncertain climate
P.A. Loring et al. Arctic (2011) 64(1):73-88. This paper compares two case studies in Alaska, one on commercial fishers of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region and the other on moose hunters of Interior Alaska, to identify how governance arrangements and management strategies enhance or limit people's ability to respond effectively to changing climatic and environmental conditions.

A wild solution to climate change
UAA podcast. Climate change, biodiversity, environmental conservation, the beauty of the natural world—all of these are topics that Thomas E. Lovejoy, Ph.D., knows very well. On Tuesday, October 12, Lovejoy gave a free talk entitled "A Wild Solution to Climate Change." Listen to it here.

Workshop report—IUCN/NRDC workshop to identify areas of ecological and biological significance or vulnerability in the Arctic marine environment
L. Speer, T.L. Laughlin, April 7, 2011. Report prepared from results of a workshop held November 2-4, 2010, in La Jolla, California, by International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).

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