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Last reviewed:
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Arctic Climate System
Sea Ice
Glaciers and Ice Sheets
Permafrost
Oceanic and Atmospheric Circulation
Historical Climate and Weather
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Sea Ice
Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss
D.M. Lawrence et al. Geophysical Reseearch Letters (2008) doi:10.1029/2008GL033985. The authors evaluate how rapid sea ice loss affects terrestrial Arctic climate and ground thermal state in the Community Climate System Model. They find that simulated western Arctic land warming trends during rapid sea ice loss are 3.5 times greater than secular 21st century climate-change trends.Air-sea CO2 exchange of beach and near-coastal waters of the Chukchi Sea near Barrow, Alaska
H. Ikawa, W.C. Oechel. Continental Shelf Research (2011) 31(13):1357-1364. Partial pressure of CO2 in equilibrium with sample water (pCO2) for the coastal water in the Chukchi Sea was continuously observed in summer 2008. The very low pCO2 observed in late June was likely caused by high photosynthetic rates related to high phytoplankton densities typically observed from spring to early summer near the ice edge, and by water low in salinity and CO2 released by melting sea ice early in the season.Annual Arctic sea ice minimum from 1979 to 2008
This 35-second animation, produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, shows Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2008. (WMV 1.48 MB)Aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean: Effects of ocean acidification and sea ice melt
M. Yamamoto-Kawai et al. Science (2009) 326(5956):1098-1100. In 2008, surface waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean were undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a relatively soluble form of calcium carbonate found in plankton and invertebrates. Undersaturation was found to be a direct consequence of the recent extensive melting of sea ice in the Canada Basin. Undersaturation will affect both planktonic and benthic calcifying biota and therefore the composition of the Arctic ecosystem.Arctic clear for summer sailing by 2040
A.L. Haag, Nature News, December 11, 2006. New climate simulations offer a dire forecast for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, predicting that by the year 2040 the Arctic Ocean will be almost free of ice during late summer.Arctic climate change: Observed and modeled temperature and sea-ice variability
O.M. Johannessen. Tellus: Series A (2004) 56(4):328-341. Changes apparent in the arctic climate system in recent years require evaluation in a century-scale perspective in order to assess the Arctic's response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, a new set of century- and multidecadal-scale observational data is used in order to better determine and understand arctic climate variability.Arctic climate will change faster than Antarctic
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, August 11, 2011. The Arctic—with its ice cap riding a vast, roiling ocean and its landscape underlain by saturated permafrost—will change faster than the drier, continental Antarctic, according to a Penn State hydrologist who studies the role played by water in polar ecology.Arctic ice melt could pause for several years, then resume again
Science Daily, August 12, 2011. Although Arctic sea ice appears fated to melt away as the climate continues to warm, the ice may temporarily stabilize or somewhat expand at times over the next few decades, new research indicates.The Arctic is on thin ice
P. Ball, Nature News, December 3, 1999. As well as polar bears, seals, walruses, and foxes also live on the floating ice sheets, which are crossed by migrating caribou and musk ox. Moreover, the entire Arctic ecosystem depends on algae living on the underside of the ice pack, which bloom in spring when the edge of the ice begins its seasonal retreat.Arctic life, on thin ice
K. Krajick. Science (2001) 291(5503):424-425. Field observations from the Beaufort Sea to Hudson Bay are suggesting that the food web in the Arctic Ocean is ailing, causing many species to flounder as a result of the warming environment. Sea ice in the Arctic, on which arctic animals hunt, rest, and reproduce, now covers 15% less area than it did in 1978. If this trend continues, in 50 years the sea ice could disappear entirely during summers, possibly wiping out ice algae and most other organisms farther up the food chain.Arctic may be ice-free within 30 years
J. Vidal, guardian.co.uk, July 11, 2011. Sea ice in the Arctic is melting at a record pace this year, suggesting warming at the North Pole is speeding up, and a largely ice-free Arctic can be expected in summer months within 30 years.Arctic melt unnerves the experts
A.C. Revkin. New York Times, October 2, 2007. A host of Arctic scientists say it is too soon to know if the global greenhouse effect has already tipped the system to a condition in which sea ice in summers will be routinely limited to a few clotted passageways in northern Canada. But at the university in Fairbanks, Dr. Hajo Eicken and other experts are having a hard time conceiving a situation that could reverse the trends.Arctic Ocean full up with carbon dioxide
H. Hoag, Nature News, July 22, 2010. Loss of sea ice is unlikely to enable Arctic waters to mop up more carbon dioxide from the air.The Arctic Ocean: So much we still don't know
K. Moran, J. Backman. Geotimes (2007). Earth's albedo (the percent of solar radiation reflected back into the atmosphere) can be a major climate feedback component. Because the ice-covered poles have the highest albedo of any other locale on the planet, major changes in this ice can "tip" the planet to a cooler or hotter place. Today, we are witnesses to such a shift—the Arctic's permanent sea ice is rapidly melting.Arctic paleoclimate synthesis thematic papers
J.J. Fitzpatrick et al. Quaternary Science Reviews (2010) 29(15-16):1674-1678. This issue of QSR contains five papers that were originally written as the technical chapters for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 1.2, Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes. The thematic papers here reintroduce the technical language of climate change and update the original SAP content with more recent information derived from literature published after the report was finalized for publication in 2008.Arctic Report Card
An international team of research scientists has created this peer-reviewed website which tracks multiple changes in the arctic environment. The Report Card is organized by NOAA and will be updated annually.Arctic sea ice: Changes in the cryosphere
Video of a 2008 talk by Dr. Stephanie Pfirman, Department of Environmental Sciences, Barnard College. (54:09 min)Arctic sea ice continues decline, hits second-lowest level
Science Daily, October 6, 2011. Satellite data from NASA and the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado in Boulder showed that the summertime sea ice cover narrowly avoided a new record low.Arctic sea ice controls the release of mercury
Science Daily, January 20, 2011. By blocking sunlight, sea ice could influence the breakdown and transfer into the atmosphere of toxic forms of mercury present in the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean. A recent study suggests that climate plays a key role in the mercury cycle and that the release of mercury into the atmosphere could be accentuated by the melting of Arctic sea ice.Arctic sea ice cover second lowest on record
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, September 16, 2011. As of September 10, polar ice covered about 1.68 million square miles—about 42,500 square miles above the record minimum seen on the same date in 2007.Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
J. Stroeve et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2007) 34. From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period.Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi seas
D.C. Douglas, U.S. Geological Survey, 2010. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value.Arctic sea ice faces rapid melt
BBC News, December 12, 2006. BBC science reporter Jonathan Amos discusses warnings from U.S. scientists that the Arctic may be close to a tipping point that sees all-year-round ice disappear very rapidly in the next few decades.Arctic sea ice is melting at its fastest pace in almost 40 years
J. Vidal, guardian.co.uk, September 11, 2011. Arctic sea ice has melted to a level not recorded since satellite observations started in 1972—and almost certainly not experienced for at least 8,000 years—say polar scientists.Arctic sea ice levels third-lowest on record
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, September 18, 2009. Arctic sea ice declined slightly less dramatically in 2009 than in the previous couple of years, but the seasonal minimum was still the third-lowest on record since satellite radar measurements began in 1979, reinforcing a marked 30-year downward trend in summertime ice extent.Arctic sea ice melts
Video clip from BBC's Learning Zone. The clip was first created on the Planet Earth website.Arctic sea ice nears minimum extent
Science Daily, September 14, 2011. The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center data show Arctic sea ice extent currently at the second-lowest levels in the satellite record.Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis
Online newsletter from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Sea ice data are updated daily, with a one-day lag.Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability
J. Zhang et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2010) doi:10.1029/2010GL044988. Numerical experiments are conducted to project arctic sea ice responses to varying levels of future anthropogenic warming and climate variability over 2010-2050.Arctic sea ice resumes big meltdown
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, August 17, 2011. The ice pack, while more spread out, is now thinner than it was in 2007, scientists say, and the total volume of ice has never been lower.Arctic sea ice retreat in 2007 follows thinning trend
R.W. Lindsay et al. Journal of Climate (2009) 22(1):165-176. The minimum of Arctic sea ice extent in the summer of 2007 was unprecedented in the historical record. However, 2007 ice mass loss is largely consistent with a steady decrease in ice thickness that began in 1987. Since then, the simulated mean September ice thickness within the Arctic Ocean has declined from 3.7 to 2.6 meters at a rate of -0.57 meters decade.Arctic summer sea ice could vanish soon but not suddenly
R.A. Kerr. Science (2009) 323(5922):1655. After paring 23 climate models down to the best half-dozen, two researchers now say with new confidence that arctic summer ice will most likely disappear around 2037. But none of the select models predicts a tipping point—a sudden jump to an ice-free summer Arctic.Arctic summit to tackle melting glaciers
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," May 11, 2011. Canada, Russia, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States discuss proposals to accelerate exploration for oil and natural gas in northern waters and the implications of a new report that predicts that melting glaciers will raise sea level by more than five feet by the end of this century.Arctic views
Indian Country Today Media Network, June 6, 2011. This is a short video by Canada's Ministry of Tourism of the view through the lens of Cruise North Expeditions, an award-winning Inuit-owned cruise line and the only service specializing in Canadian Arctic cruises.The Arctic's near-record sea ice low—Big picture
guardian.co.uk, September 23, 2011. A view from space of Arctic sea ice at a near record low in September 2011.Assessment of potential transport of pollutants into the Barents Sea via sea ice—an observational approach
R. Korsnes et al. Marine Pollution Bulletin (2002) 44(9):861-869. A significant part of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has its origin in the Kara Sea and melts in the Greenland and Barents seas. Consequently there may be a particular risk of pollutants in the Kara Sea entering the food webs of the Greenland and Barents seas.Atlas of Inuit Sea Ice Knowledge and Use
In this atlas you will learn about Inuit knowledge of sea ice (siku) around Baffin Island, Nunavut.Atmospheric inversion strength over polar oceans in winter regulated by sea ice
T.M. Pavelsky et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 36(5-6):945-955. Correlation of inversion strength with mean annual sea ice concentration, likely a surrogate for the effective thermal conductivity of the wintertime ice pack, yields strong, linear relationships in the Arctic (r = 0.88) and Antarctic (r = 0.86).Best hope for saving Arctic sea ice is cutting soot emissions, say researchers
ScienceDaily, July 30, 2010. Soot from the burning of fossil fuels and solid biofuels contributes far more to global warming than has been thought, according to a new Stanford study. But, unlike carbon dioxide, soot lingers only a few weeks in the atmosphere, so cutting emissions could have a significant and rapid impact on the climate. Controlling it may be the only option for saving the Arctic sea ice from melting.The big melt
This is a series of articles published in the New York Times in October 2005 describing the effects of warming on the environment and on the four million people who live in the Arctic, and scientists' assessments of the inevitability of Arctic melting. Included are three videos: The Arctic Ice Cap where Andrew C. Revkin looks at the melting of the Arctic ice cap, Sampling the Ice where Revkin describes an expedition to drill samples in the Arctic, and Arctic Fisheries where Simon Romero looks at how changes in the Arctic may affect the Norwegian fishing industry.The boundary layer response to recent Arctic sea ice loss and implications for high-latitude climate feedbacks
J.E. Kay et al. Journal of Climate (2011) 24(2):428-447. This study documents and evaluates the boundary layer and energy budget response to record low 2007 sea ice extents in the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) using 1-day observationally constrained forecasts and 10-year runs with a freely evolving atmosphere.Brackish meltponds on Arctic sea ice—A new habitat for marine metazoans
M. Kramer, R. Kiko. Polar Biology (2011) 34(4):603-608. Meltponds on Arctic sea ice have previously been reported to be devoid of marine metazoans due to freshwater conditions. The predominantly dark, frequently also green and brownish meltponds observed in the Central Arctic in summer 2007 hinted to brackish conditions and considerable amounts of algae, possibly making the habitat suitable for marine metazoans.Brine fluxes from growing sea ice
A.J. Wells et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2010GL046288. When sea ice has exceeded a critical thickness, the drainage process is dominated by brine channels: liquid conduits extending through the ice. The authors describe a theoretical model for the drainage process using mushy layer theory, which demonstrates that the brine channel spacing is governed by a selection mechanism that maximizes the rate of removal of stored potential energy, and hence the brine flux from the system.Britain's hot spring could be result of shrinking Arctic
R. McKie, guardian.co.uk, June 5, 2011. Melting sea ice could be influencing the movement of jet streams that might normally move high pressure away from UK.The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification
J.A. Screen, I. Simmonds. Nature (2010) 464(7293):1334-1337. This study concludes that diminishing sea ice has had a leading role in recent Arctic temperature amplification. The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive ice-temperature feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea ice loss, which will probably affect polar ecosystems, ice-sheet mass balance, and human activities in the Arctic.Challenges of climate change: An Arctic perspective
R.W. Corell. Ambio (2006) 35(4):148-152. Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences.Changes at poles drive global warming
PBS NewsHour Science Report, February 23, 2007. Over the past several decades, temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the rate of average global temperatures. Meanwhile, sea and land ice in the Arctic and parts of Antarctica have been shrinking at a surprising and ever-growing rate, and permafrost is thawing across the Arctic. These and other changes pose an obvious threat to the polar regions. But, climate scientists say, they also signal changes to come around the globe.Changes in Alaska's environmental drivers: Realities and uncertainties
Lecture #9 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented January 19, 2010, by John Walsh, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks.Changes in the Arctic: Consequences for the world
M. Bettwy. This online essay was published January 24, 2005, by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Significant changes in the Arctic environment, especially those over the past decade, can lead to dramatic swings in weather and climate patterns across the rest of the globe, with potentially far-reaching consequences for ecosystems and human populations.Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss
S. Vavrus et al. Climate Dynamics (2010) DOI:10.1007/s00382-010-0816-0. The authors investigate the behavior of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3).Changes in the climate of the Alaskan North Slope and the ice concentration of the adjacent Beaufort Sea
G. Wendler, M. Shulski, B. Moore. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2010) 99:67-74. The sea ice extent of the Arctic Ocean has decreased strongly in recent years, and in September 2007 a new record in the amount of open water was recorded in the Western Arctic.The changing climate of the Arctic
D.G. Barber et al. Arctic (2008) 61(Suppl 1):7-26. Evidence is now accumulating that the Arctic is warming, and responses are being observed across physical, biological, and social systems.Chilling news on North Pole sea ice
NPR's "All Things Considered," September 21, 2007. Final data on the shrinking North Pole ice cap confirms that the amount of ice there is the lowest yet recorded, with even less ice than had been reported in August. Mark Serreze, senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, tells Melissa Block what the figures might imply.Claire Parkinson on disappearing sea ice and its impacts
EarthSky intervew, July 11, 2011. Claire Parkinson is project scientist for NASA's Aqua satellite mission, which, among other things, measures floating sea ice at Earth's poles. Parkinson spoke with EarthSky about disappearing sea ice and its impacts.Climate change: Rethinking the sea-ice tipping point
M.C. Serreze. Nature (2011) 471(7336):47-48. Summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic has decreased greatly during recent decades. Simulations of twenty-first-century climate suggest that the ice can recover from artificially imposed ice-free summer conditions within a couple of years.Climate Change and Sea Ice Portlet
This is a page from the Arctic Portal website.Climate change impacts on the Beaufort shelf landfast ice
J. Dumas et al. Cold Regions Science and Technology (2005) 42(1):41-51. Authors emphasize the urgent need for marine-based observations of solid precipitation for understanding change in the thickness of landfast sea ice.Climate change in Eurasian Arctic shelf seas: Centennial ice cover observations
I.E. Frolov et al., Springer, 2009. The major goals of this 166-page book are to describe the state and variability of the Arctic sea ice cover, to demonstrate methods for sea ice studies, and to describe and test hypotheses that will allow us to understand and predict future Arctic sea ice conditions. The authors synthesize data collected and experience gained by Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) scientists during their more than 85 years of Arctic exploration.Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay region: An intermodel comparison
A.S. Gagnon, W.A. Gough. Climatic Change (2005) 69(2-3):269-297. This study compares the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. The analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution.Climate memory and long-range forecasting of sea ice conditions in Hudson Strait
W.A. Gough, C. Houser. Polar Geography (2005) 29(1):17-26. Hudson Strait plays a crucial role for navigation into and out of Hudson Bay. The Strait is ice-covered for eight months of the year. The authors demonstrate the ability to forecast ice conditions, particularly ice formation and retreat, up to seven months in advance.Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions
J. Turner, J. Overland. Polar Research (2009) 28(2):146-164. The two polar regions have experienced remarkably different climatic changes in recent decades. The Arctic has seen a marked reduction in sea-ice extent throughout the year, with a peak during the autumn. In contrast, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased, with the greatest growth being in the autumn.Cryosphere: Warmth from the deep
E. Carmack, H. Melling. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(1):7-8. Unusual wind patterns and the albedo feedback effect played crucial roles in the rapid reduction of Arctic sea-ice cover in recent years. Evidence is now building that a warmer ocean has also contributed to the thinning of Arctic ice.Current understanding of Antarctic climate change
Online fact sheet published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, October 2007. At a time of dramatic warming and rapid sea ice decline in the Arctic, Antarctica has cooled slightly and sea ice has increased around it. Recent scientific progress in understanding how two distinct processes affect Antarctic climate reconciles these seemingly contradictory trends at the Earth's poles.Decrease in the CO2 uptake capacity in an ice-free Arctic Ocean basin
W.J. Cai et al. Science (2010) 329(5991):556-559. Contrary to the current view, the authors predict that the Arctic Ocean basin will not become a large atmospheric CO2 sink under ice-free conditions.Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011
J. Maslanik et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047735. Analysis of a satellite-derived record of sea ice age for 1980 through March 2011 shows continued net decrease in multiyear ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean, with particularly extensive loss of the oldest ice types.Dynamic topography of the ice-covered Arctic Ocean from ICESat
R. Kwok, J. Morison. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2010GL046063. The authors construct the dynamic ocean topography (DOT) of the Arctic Ocean for five ICESat campaigns (winter of 2004-2008) using sea surface height estimates in open leads.Earth's ice: Sea level, climate, and our future commitment
T. Scambos. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2011) 67(1):28-40. While the processes leading to the loss of ice are quickly started, they do not quickly stop. We are on the verge of committing ourselves to sizable increases in sea level. The author describes the processes that are rapidly eroding polar ice.Effects of ocean acidification, warming and melting of sea ice on aragonite saturation of the Canada Basin surface water
M. Yamamoto-Kawai et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2010GL045501. In 2008, surface waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean were found to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite. This is associated with recent extensive melting of sea ice in this region, as well as elevated sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification
M.C. Serreze et al. The Cryosphere (2008) 2(4):601-622. Rises in surface and lower troposphere air temperatures through the 21st century are projected to be especially pronounced over the Arctic Ocean during the cold season. This Arctic amplification is largely driven by loss of the sea ice cover, allowing for strong heat transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere.Evolution of the Arctic Ocean salinity, 2007-08: Contrast between the Canadian and the Eurasian basins
C. Lique et al. Journal of Climate (2011) 24(6):1705-1717. The authors investigate the variability of salinity in the Arctic Ocean and in the Nordic and Labrador seas over recent years to see how the freshwater balance in the Arctic and the exchanges with the North Atlantic have been affected by the recent important sea ice melting, especially during the 2007 sea ice extent minimum.Explorers find thin ice at the North Pole
NPR's "All Things Considered," September 24, 2007. Every spring, when there's enough daylight and before the ice begins to fracture too much, there's a brief window of several weeks for scientists and explorers to arrive on the drifting pack ice at the North Pole. But that window is growing smaller due to a warmer climate. For the 2007 season, scientists had to scrap their missions, and explorers were forced to abort their expeditions due to severe storms, thinning ice, and open water.Export of Pacific carbon through the Arctic Archipelago to the North Atlantic
E.H. Shadwick et al. Continental Shelf Research (2011) 31(7-8):806-816. The eastward transport of carbon from the Pacific, via the Arctic Archipelago, to the North Atlantic is estimated, and the impact of increased export of sea-ice melt water to the North Atlantic is discussed.Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008
I. Simmonds, K. Keay. Geophysical Research Letters (2009) doi:10.1029/2009GL039810. The analysis reveals that the trends and variability in September ice coverage and mean cyclone characteristics are related, and that the strength (rather than the number) of cyclones in the Arctic basin is playing a central role in the changes observed in that region, especially in the past few years.Extreme North Pole heat contributing to rapid loss of sea ice
Yale Environment 360, July 20, 2011. North Pole temperatures that have been 11 to 14 degrees F higher than normal, coupled with an early melting of sea ice and low snow cover in the Far North, have caused a swift retreat of sea ice this summer and could mean that the Arctic Ocean in 2011 will have the smallest sea ice extent ever recorded.Feeling the heat: Unlocking the Arctic's frozen secrets
BBC News, July 9, 2010. Forecasts suggest that this year will see the amount of sea ice in the Arctic retreat to one of the lowest extents since satellite records began. So what will be the impact of an Arctic devoid of sea-ice during the summer in the future? Science writer Richard Hollingham has joined a scientific expedition trying to find out.Fifty years of coastal erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity on Herschel Island, southern Beaufort Sea, Yukon Territory, Canada
H. Lantuit, W.H. Pollard. Geomorphology (2008) 95(1-2):84-102. Climate change in the Arctic is expected to result in increased rates of coastal erosion due to warming permafrost, increasing active layer depths and thermokarst, rising sea levels, reduction in sea ice extent and duration, and increasing storm impacts.Fourth quarter in the Arctic
M. Sever. Geotimes (2008). The Pacific Ocean is carrying more heat through Arctic seas into the Arctic Ocean, potentially peeling back the ice at the surface as warmer waters lap at the edges of the ice.Future projections of landfast ice thickness and duration in the Canadian Arctic
J.A. Dumas et al. Journal of Climate (2006) 19(20):5175-5189. Projections of future landfast ice thickness and duration were generated for nine sites in the Canadian Arctic and one site on the Labrador coast with a simple downscaling technique that used a one-dimensional sea ice model driven by observationally based forcing and superimposed projected future climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global climate model (CGCM2).Geographies of Inuit sea ice use
C. Aporta et al. Canadian Geographer (2011) 55(1). This special issue of Canadian Geographer presents insights that Inuit hunters have shared with the authors about what declining sea ice means to them, reflecting different perspectives that emerge from different communities. Articles include:
- Introduction
- Shifting perspectives on shifting ice: Documenting and representing Inuit use of the sea ice
- Looking back—and looking ahead—35 years after the Inuit land use and occupancy project
- An elder on sea ice: An interview with Aipilik Inuksuk of Igloolik, Nunavut
- On the nature of sea ice around Igloolik
- The Igliniit project: Inuit hunters document life on the trail to map and monitor Arctic change
- 'How many Eskimo words for ice?' Collecting Inuit sea ice terminologies in the International Polar Year 2007-2008
- Cracks in the knowledge: Sea ice terms in Kangiqsualujjuaq, Nunavik
- Evaluating the Floe Edge Service: How well can SAR imagery address Inuit community concerns around sea ice change and travel safety?
- Towards an Indigenist data management program: Reflections on experiences developing an atlas of sea ice knowledge and use
Global outlook for ice and snow
Report by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2007. Ice, snow and climate change are closely linked. This report investigates those connections, the current situation of ice and snow, and the global significance of changes, now and in the years to come.Global warming could cool down northern temperatures in winter
ScienceDaily, November 17, 2010. The overall warming of Earth's northern half could result in cold winters, new research shows. The shrinking of sea ice in the eastern Arctic causes some regional heating of the lower levels of air, which may lead to strong anomalies in atmospheric airstreams, triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents.The great ice mystery
J. Copley. Nature (2000) 408:634-636. Changes in the extent and thickness of sea ice could alter ocean circulation and thus disrupt the climate.Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence
S.C. Amstrup et al. Nature (2010) 468:955-958. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.The Greenland Sea Jet: A mechanism for wind-driven sea ice export through Fram Strait
J.H. van Angelen et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047837. The authors present a mechanism for wind-driven sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait for the period 1979-2007, using the output of a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model.High above the Earth, satellites track melting ice
M.D. Lemonick. Environment 360 (2010). The surest sign of a warming Earth is the steady melting of its ice zones, from disappearing sea ice in the Arctic to shrinking glaciers worldwide. Now, scientists are using increasingly sophisticated satellite technology to measure the extent, thickness, and height of ice, assembling an essential picture of a planet in transition.Historical analysis of sea ice conditions in M'Clintock Channel and the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut: Implications for ringed seal and polar bear habitat
D.G. Barber, J. Iacozza. Arctic (2004) 57(1):1-14. Sea ice is an integral part of the marine ecosystem in the Arctic and important habitat for ringed seals and polar bears. To study changes in sea ice characteristics indicative of ringed seal habitat (and linked, through predator/prey relationships, to polar bear habitat), this study examined historical changes in sea ice concentration and type within M'Clintock Channel and the Gulf of Boothia, two regions of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, during 1980-2000.How fast is landfast sea ice? A study of the attachment and detachment of nearshore ice at Barrow, Alaska
A. Mahoney et al. Cold Regions Science and Technology (2007) 47(3):233-255. During the two winters between 2003 and 2005, land-based marine radar observed the nearshore ice motion during the development and decay of landfast ice near Barrow, Alaska.How a 2-degree climate change would hit Canada
CBC News, October 6, 2010. Ongoing climate change means that summer Arctic sea ice could be halved, runoff in the South Saskatchewan River basin reduced, and the cost of shipping through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway could rise due to lower water levels, according to a newly published compilation of research.Ice, ocean, and eddies: An Arctic perspective on climate change
Video presented by Robert Pinkel, PhD, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, as part of the 2008 series "Perspectives on Ocean Science." Dr. Pinkel provides a window into the cold world of Arctic oceanography and illustrates how the interplay between sea ice and ocean circulation impacts Earth's climate. (51:16)Impact of global warming on the Arctic
C-Span Video Library, November 26, 2007. Video of an American Meteorological Society conference where scientists spoke about the impact of global warming on conditions in the Arctic, sea ice melt rates, and measured shrinking of polar ice sheets. (1:42:40)The impact of sea-ice dynamics on the Arctic climate system
S. Vavrus, S.P. Harrison. Climate Dynamics (2002) 20(7-8):741-757. Five paired global climate model experiments, one with an ice pack that only responds thermodynamically (TI) and one including sea-ice dynamics (DI), were used to investigate the sensitivity of Arctic climates to sea-ice motion.The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard
J.J. Day et al. Cryosphere (2011) 5(4):1887-1920. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers which are extremely sensitive to changes in climate. Records of past accumulation indicate that the surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard is also sensitive to changes in the position of the sea ice edge.The increase in the length of the ice-free season in the Arctic
J. Rodrigues. Cold Regions Science and Technology (2009) 59(1):78-101. Daily sea ice concentrations obtained from satellite passive microwave imagery are used to calculate the length of the ice-free season and the inverse sea ice index in each point of the Arctic for each year between 1979 and 2008.Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate
H. Goosse et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2009) doi:10.1029/2009GL040546. Simulations performed with general circulation models and a model of intermediate complexity show that the variability of the September sea ice extent in the Arctic of the 21st century increases first when the mean extent decreases from present-day values.Increasingly precise data on radiation reflected from the Arctic sea area
Science Daily, October 6, 2011. The Finnish Meteorological Institute has developed a new, globally unique method for estimating surface albedo in the Arctic sea area solely on the basis of microwave data. Its advantage over conventional optical methods is that neither clouds nor darkness interfere with measurements.Inherent sea ice predictability in the rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3
M.M. Holland et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 36(7-8):1239-1253. Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice have typically been based on statistical regression models or on results from ensemble ice model forecasts driven by historical atmospheric forcing. However, in the rapidly changing Arctic environment, the predictability characteristics of summer ice cover could undergo important transformations. Here global coupled climate model simulations are used to assess the inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice conditions on seasonal to interannual timescales within the Community Climate System Model, version 3.Integrated analysis of physical and biological pan-arctic change
J.E. Overland et al. Climatic Change (2004) 63(3):291-322. This study investigates the recent large changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period of 1965-1995 through examination of 86 regionally dispersed time series representing seven data types: climate indices, atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, sea ice, fisheries, and other biological data.Inter-annual to multi-decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world
J.E. Kay et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL048008. A climate model (CCSM4) is used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late 20th century and early 21st century Arctic sea ice extent trends. Comparing trends from the CCSM4 ensemble to observed trends suggests that internal variability explains approximately half of the observed 1979-2005 September Arctic sea ice extent loss.Is battered Arctic sea ice down for the count?
R.A. Kerr. Science (2007) 318(5847):33-34. A few years ago, researchers modeling the fate of Arctic sea ice under global warming saw a good chance that the ice could disappear, in summertime at least, by the end of the 21st century. Now, after watching Arctic sea ice shrink back to a startling record-low area, scientists are worried that even 2050 may be overoptimistic.Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice
J.E. Overland, M. Wang. Tellus A (2009) 62(1):1-9. Recent loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic is directly connected to shifts in northern wind patterns in the following autumn, which has the potential of altering the heat budget at the cold end of the global heat engine.Loss of reflectivity in the Arctic doubles estimate of climate models
ScienceDaily, January 18, 2011. A new analysis of the Northern Hemisphere's "albedo feedback" over a 30-year period concludes that the region's loss of reflectivity due to snow and sea ice decline is more than double what state-of-the-art climate models estimate.Low Arctic winter ice; Polar region experiences ozone loss
Yale Environment 360, March 24, 2011. This year's maximum extent of winter sea ice tied for the lowest maximum ever measured, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado. Meanwhile, scientists report that protective ozone in the upper layers of the Arctic atmosphere has been reduced by about half this year and that the Arctic, for the first time in recorded history, may experience an ozone hole similar to the one over the Antarctic.Mapping sea ice overflood using remote sensing: Alaskan Beaufort Sea
D. Dickins et al. Cold Regions Science and Technology (2011) 65(3):275-285. The U.S. Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS), Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region commissioned a study designed to map the extent of peak river overflooding onto the fast ice in the nearshore region of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea.Melting sea ice major cause of warming in Arctic, new study reveals
ScienceDaily, April 28, 2010. Melting sea ice has been shown to be a major cause of warming in the Arctic, according to a University of Melbourne, Australia, study.Melting snow and ice: A call for action
Former Vice President Al Gore and Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre presented this global report on melting ice at a side event of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP 15) December 14, 2009. (PDF 15.2 MB)Melting trends: Arctic ice completely gone by 2020?
ForaTv, 2009. Environmentalist Dan Miller discusses images of arctic ice melting trends at the North Pole. He argues that light once reflected off the surface of the melting ice is now being absorbed by water, priming a feedback loop that will continuously accelerate the melting process.Methylmercury photodegradation influenced by sea-ice cover in Arctic marine ecosystems
D. Point et al. Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1049. The authors conclude that sea-ice cover impedes the photochemical breakdown of methylmercury in surface waters and suggest that further loss of Arctic sea ice this century will accelerate sunlight-induced breakdown of methylmercury in northern surface waters.Mix of factors led to record Arctic ice melt in 2007
NPR's "All Things Considered," January 16, 2008. Summertime ice in the Arctic Ocean has been in quick retreat. There's a lot of uncertainty about how quickly it will melt away entirely in the summertime. Estimates range from 2013 to beyond 2100. The uncertainty is explained by the science behind the phenomenon of melting.Model provides successful seasonal forecast for the fate of Arctic sea ice
Science Daily, September 22, 2011. Relatively accurate predictions for the extent of Arctic sea ice in a given summer can be made by assessing conditions the previous autumn, but forecasting conditions more than five years into the future depends on understanding the impact of climate trends on the ice pack, new research shows.More extreme weather in the Arctic regions
Science Daily, February 5, 2009. A new study published in Climate Dynamics by Erik Kolstad and Thomas J. Bracegirdle reveals that one of the most visible signs of climate change is the dramatically reduced ice cover in the Arctic. The retreat of the sea ice leads to rapid changes in the weather conditions in these areas.The multiphase physics of sea ice: A review
E.C. Hunke et al. Cryosphere (2011) 5(4):1949-1993. Rather than being solid throughout, sea ice contains liquid brine inclusions, solid salts, microalgae, trace elements, gases, and other impurities which all exist in the interstices of a porous, solid ice matrix. Sea ice salinity and microstructure are tightly interconnected and play a significant role in polar ecosystems and climate.NASA data show Arctic saw fastest August sea ice retreat on record
For a four-week period in August 2008, sea ice melted faster during that period than ever before. This page has a link to a video clip produced by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. The video gives a general overview of recent arctic sea ice decline.New satellite-derived sea ice motion tracks Arctic contamination
W.J. Emery et al. Marine Pollution Bulletin (1997) 35(7-12):345-352. Sea ice has been reported to contain contaminants from atmospheric and nearshore sediment resuspension processes. In this study, successive passive microwave images from the 85.5 GHz channels on the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) were merged with drifting buoy trajectories from the International Arctic Buoy Program to compute Arctic sea ice motion in the Russian Arctic between 1988 and 1994.New sea ice report to chronicle arctic conditions
A new weekly sea ice report is aimed at forecasting changing spring ice conditions for walrus and seal hunters in communities along the northern Bering and southern Chukchi seas. This news story aired on Alaska Public Radio Network's "Alaska News Nightly" on April 27, 2010. (MP3—4.17 MB, 4:33)New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
R. Black, BBC News, April 7, 2011. Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade.NOAA's Arctic vision and strategy
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, February 2011. This document provides a high-level framework and six strategic goals to address NOAA's highest priorities in the Arctic. It is based upon assumptions that the region will: (1) continue to experience dramatic change, (2) become more accessible to human activities, and (3) be a focus of increasing global strategic interest.Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice
I. Eisenman, J.S. Wettlaufer. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2009) 106(1):28-32. In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. Here, the authors examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions.North Atlantic cold-water sink returns to life
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, November 29, 2008. Scientists have found evidence that convective mixing in the North Atlantic, a mechanism that fuels ocean circulation and affects Earth's climate, has returned after a decade of near stagnation, thanks, perhaps, to a dramatic loss of sea-ice in the Arctic during the summer of 2007.North Pole sea ice half as thick as 2001
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, August 25, 2011. Sea ice floating near the top of the world appears to be half as thick as it was 10 years ago, according to reports from a premier German research icebreaker on a nine-week mission to survey the Arctic Ocean from one side to the other.Numerical investigations of future ice conditions in the Baltic Sea
J. Haapala et al. Ambio (2001) 30(4):237-244. Global climate change is expected to have an effect on the physical and ecological characteristics of the Baltic Sea. Estimates of future climate on the regional scale can be obtained by using either statistical or dynamical downscaling methods of global AOGCM scenario results.Observational studies of Arctic Ocean ice-atmosphere interactions
R.G. Barry, J.R. Key. Polar Geography and Geology (1994) 18(1):1-14. Effects on the summer ice conditions of the snow melt regime on sea ice and of synoptic-scale circulation variability forcing variations in ice concentration are described.Observations and predictions of Arctic climatic change: Potential effects on marine mammals
C.T. Tynan, D.P. DeMaster. Arctic (1997) 50(4):308-322. Changes in the extent and concentration of sea ice may alter the seasonal distributions, geographic ranges, patterns of migration, nutritional status, reproductive success, and ultimately the abundance and stock structure of some species.Observing and understanding Arctic climate change: Monitoring the mass balance, motion, and thickness of sea ice
Website of the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL). The Arctic sea ice cover plays a key role in global climate change studies, both as an indicator and as an amplifier of climate change. The sea ice cover is undergoing significant climate-induced changes, affecting both its extent and thickness. Observations of ice growth and melt improves our understanding of the ongoing changes and enhance our ability to predict future changes.Observing Arctic ice-edge plankton blooms from space
Science Daily, March 4, 2011. Ongoing climate-driven changes to the Arctic sea ice could have a significant impact on the blooming of tiny planktonic plants (phytoplankton) with important implications for the Arctic ecosystem, according to new research conducted by scientists at the UK's National Oceanography Centre (NOC).Oceanographer sees real effects of climate change
NPR's "Morning Edition," April 7, 2006. Robert Corell, chairman of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, talks to Steve Inskeep about the rapidly materializing effects of climate change. Corell says that within the next half century, rising sea levels will cause dramatic changes to the world we know.Origin of Arctic water vapor during the ice-growth season
N. Kurita. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2010GL046064. Recent extreme minima in Arctic summer sea ice extent have led to enhanced heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. This change may increase the humidity in Arctic air masses during the ice-growth season.The 'other' Arctic sea ice melt
D. Notz, guardian.co.uk, September 9, 2011. Reports focus on the possibility of a record minimum for Arctic sea ice in September, but a major loss during the early summer months is climatologically more important.Pancake ice takes over the Arctic
N. Jones, Nature News, March 23, 2009. Climate change is not only making Arctic sea ice disappear; it's also changing the type of ice that forms. Researchers are now trying to determine how an increase in 'pancake ice' is affecting the far north, including whether it's accelerating local warming.Polar ice caps can recover from warmer climate-induced melting, study shows
Science Daily, August 18, 2011. A growing body of recent research indicates that, in Earth's warming climate, there is no "tipping point," or threshold warm temperature, beyond which polar sea ice cannot recover if temperatures come back down. New University of Washington research indicates that even if Earth warmed enough to melt all polar sea ice, the ice could recover if the planet cooled again.The polar ice conundrum
This is a page from Paul Hudson's Weather & Climate Blog. Hudson is a climate correpondent for BBC who reports on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.Precipitation shifts over western North America as a result of declining Arctic sea ice cover: The coupled system response
J.O. Sewall. Earth Interactions (2005) 9(26):1-23. As future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover take place, there will be a substantial impact on water resources in western North America.Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis
M.C. Serreze, R.G. Barry. Global and Planetary Change (2011) 77(1-2):85-96. The authors provide a synthesis of research on Arctic amplification, starting with a historical context and then addressing recent insights into processes and key impacts, based on analysis of the instrumental record, modeling studies, and paleoclimate reconstructions.The rapid decline of the sea ice in the Russian Arctic
Cold Regions Science and Technology (2008) 54(2):124-142. A study of the sea ice concentrations obtained by passive microwave satellite imagery during the 1979-2007 period reveals remarkable changes in the sea ice cover of the Russian Arctic.Rapid melting of Arctic sea ice possibly explained
CBC News, June 28, 2011. As multi-year ice declines throughout the Arctic, more of the saltier meltwater from younger ice is mixing into the ocean. That colder, denser water sinks more quickly and forces less dense water from deeper in the ocean up to the surface. Because fresh meltwater is colder than seawater, that means relatively warm water is being forced upwards.Rapid 2010 melt for Arctic ice, but no record
BBC News, September 16, 2010. BBC environmental correspondent Richard Black reports on the preliminary finding by U.S. scientists that ice floating on the Arctic Ocean melted unusually quickly this year but did not shrink down to the record minimum area seen in 2007.Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data
R.W. MacDonald et al. Science of the Total Environment (2005) 342(1-3):5-86. The Arctic has undergone dramatic change during the past decade. The observed changes include atmospheric sea-level pressure, wind fields, sea-ice drift, ice cover, length of melt season, change in precipitation patterns, change in hydrology, and change in ocean currents and watermass distribution. It is likely that these primary changes have altered the carbon cycle and biological systems.Recent wind-driven high sea ice export in the Fram Strait contributes to Arctic sea ice decline
L.H. Smedsrud et al. Cryosphere (2011) 5(3):1311-1334. Arctic sea ice area decrease has been visible for two decades, and continues at a steady rate. Apart from melting, the southward drift through Fram Strait is the main loss. The authors present high-resolution sea ice drift across 79° N from 2004 to 2010. The ice drift is based on radar satellite data and corresponds well with variability in local geostrophic wind.Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years
C. Kinnard et al. Nature (2011) 479(7374):509-512. Arctic sea ice extent is now more than two million square kilometers less than it was in the late twentieth century, with important consequences for the climate, the ocean, and traditional lifestyles in the Arctic.Record low Arctic Sea ice extent for January
NASA Earth Observatory (2011). During the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2010-2011, unusually cold temperatures and heavy snowstorms plagued North America and Europe, while conditions were unusually warm farther north. Now the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has reported that Arctic sea ice was at its lowest extent ever recorded for January (since satellite records began).Record melt in Arctic and Greenland
T. Clarke, Nature News, December 9, 2002. Ice covering the Arctic Ocean and Greenland shrank by record amounts in the summer of 2002. The rise in seasonal melting has led some experts to estimate that 20% of Arctic sea ice could be lost by 2050.Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice
S. Tietsche et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) doi:10.1029/2010GL045698. The authors suggest that anomalous loss of Arctic sea ice during a single summer is reversible, as the ice-albedo feedback is alleviated by large-scale recovery mechanisms, and that hysteretic threshold behavior (or a "tipping point") is unlikely to occur during the decline of Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the 21st century.The relationships between Arctic sea ice and cloud-related variables in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and CCSM3
J. Cuzzone, S. Vavrus. Environmental Research Letters (2011) 6(1):014016. This study uses reanalysis data from ECMWF ERA-Interim and GCM output from the CCSM3 to investigate how sea ice and clouds interact locally (within individual grid boxes) and whether similar variability between the two datasets is captured.Reshaping Alaska: The effects of climate change
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," June 8, 2007. From melting permafrost, to dwindling sea ice, to shrinking glaciers, changes in the Alaskan environment are happening faster than was predicted. Scientists discuss what is taking place in Alaska and the Arctic, and how it is linked to climate change.The response of Arctic sea ice to global change
P. Lemke et al. Climatic Change (2000) 46(3):277-287. This paper discusses present sea ice modeling as well as the sensitivity of the sea ice cover to changes in the atmospheric boundary conditions.Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review
D. Budikova. Global and Planetary Change (2009) 68:149-163. The principal purpose of this review is to synthesize the published efforts that document the potential impact of Arctic sea ice on remote climates.The science behind measuring Arctic ice
K. Leitzell, Alaska Dispatch, August 16, 2011. Ice thickness is hard to measure, especially on a large scale. While some newer satellites can provide estimates of ice thickness, there is no long-term satellite record of ice thickness as there is for ice extent.The science behind the shrinking Arctic ice cap
Online fact sheet published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, September 2007. The Arctic ice cap declined to a record minimum size in summer 2007. Studies indicate this accelerated shrinkage of Arctic sea ice may be in response to a strong warming trend and that the climate reacts more strongly to a given amount of global warming than generally believed.Scientists see rapid ice loss in the Arctic Ocean
An ice-free arctic may be closer than originally thought. The National Snow and Ice Data Center says it could be a record year for ice loss. This story aired on Alaska Public Radio Network's "Alaska News Nightly" on May 21, 2010.Scientists working off Cornwall gather Arctic data
BBC News, June 28, 2011. The Catlin Arctic Survey 2011 collated measurements during an eight-week expedition from March to May. Scientists measured changes that they say may impact the way warm and cold water is circulated around the globe.A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?
M. Wang, J.E. Overland. Geophysical Research Letters (2009). September 2008 followed 2007 as the second sequential year with an extreme summer Arctic sea ice extent minimum.Sea Ice Group at the Geophysical Institute
This site provides real-time data, including sea-ice videos and photo frames taken every five minutes from webcams in Barrow and in Wales, Alaska, sea-ice radar images updated every 10 minutes, and measurements of snow and ice thickness, local sea level, and water-ice-snow-air temperatures taken every 15 minutes. There are links to archived data.Sea ice response to an extreme negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during winter 2009/2010
J.C. Stroeve et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2010GL045662. Based on relationships established in previous studies, the extreme negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) that characterized winter of 2009/2010 should have favored retention of Arctic sea ice through the 2010 summer melt season. The September 2010 sea ice extent nevertheless ended up as third lowest in the satellite record, behind 2007 and barely above 2008, reinforcing the long-term downward trend.Sea-ice-thickness variability in the Chukchi Sea, spring and summer 2002-2004
K. Shirasawa et al. Deep Sea Research II (2009) 56(17):1182-1200. Measurements of sea-ice thickness were obtained from drill holes, an ice-based electromagnetic induction instrument (IEM), and a ship-borne electromagnetic induction instrument (SEM) during the early-melt season in the southern Chukchi Sea in 2002 and 2004, and in late summer 2003 at the time of minimum ice extent in the northern Chukchi Sea.Sea-surface temperature in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait in relation to air temperature and ice cover breakup, 1985-2009
P.S. Galbraith, P. Larouche. Journal of Marine Systems (2011) 87(1):266-278. Sea-surface weekly average temperatures derived from NOAA-AVHRR remote sensing data are analyzed for the period 1985-2009 for Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait, and compared to weekly ice cover data obtained from the Canadian Ice Service for the period 1971-2009 as well as to monthly average air temperature at four stations around Hudson Bay and to four around Hudson Strait.Sensitivity of Arctic summer sea ice coverage to global warming forcing: Towards reducing uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections
X. Zhang. Tellus: Series A (2010) 62(3):220-227. Substantial uncertainties have emerged in Arctic climate change projections by the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report climate models. In particular, the models as a group considerably underestimate the recent accelerating sea ice reduction.Sensitivity of Hudson Bay sea ice and ocean climate to atmospheric temperature forcing
S. Joly et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 36(9-10):1835-1849. A regional sea-ice-ocean model was used to investigate the response of sea ice and oceanic heat storage in the Hudson Bay system to a climate-warming scenario. The model indicates that the greatest changes in both sea-ice climate and heat content would occur in southeastern Hudson Bay, James Bay, and Hudson Strait.September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100
J. Boé et al. Nature Geoscience (2009) 2(5):341-343. In September 2007, Arctic sea-ice extent reached its lowest level since satellite observations began, and in September 2008 sea-ice cover was still low. This development has raised concerns that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in late summer in only a few decades, with important economic and geopolitical implications.Snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA)
SWIPA 2011 Executive Summary, AMAP. The SWIPA Assessment follows on from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), published in 2005. It aims to update the findings from ACIA and to provide more in-depth coverage of issues related to the Arctic cryosphere. (PDF 27.9 MB)Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century
J. Boé et al. Climatic Change (2010) 99(3-4):637-645. This study shows that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter.A step-change in the date of sea-ice breakup in western Hudson Bay
J.B.T. Scott, G.J. Marshall. Arctic (2010) 63(2):155-164. Analysis using Canadian sea-ice charts from 1971 to 2008 shows that the change to earlier breakup is best represented by a 12-day step. This step occurs from 1988 to 1989 with no significant trend before or after the step. Although not as great as the three-week gradual change suggested by previous studies, this change is still significant.Structure of under-ice melt ponds in the central Arctic and their effect on the sea-ice cover
H. Eicken. Limnology and Oceanography (1994) 39(3):682-694. Analysis of Arctic multiyear ice cores suggests that under-ice ponds and diffusional desalination may be common. They modify the properties of multiyear sea ice, affect its colonization by ice biota, and may result in retainment of dissolved and particulate material within the ice cover.Study: Arctic sea ice at second-lowest level on record
PBS NewsHour, September 4, 2008. The Arctic ice cap has melted to a point that exceeds the 2005 level -- previously the second lowest on record -- and could surpass the record this year, scientists at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center have said.Study of Arctic sea ice offers clues about its history, mystery
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, August 8, 2011. Even as the Arctic's overall summer ice cover shrinks to record and near-record levels in the relatively balmy western Arctic off Alaska and Russia, Greenland's Far North hunkers down, holding off the siege of climate change with its horrendous weather and cooperative currents, perhaps the very last refuge of undiluted Ice Age in the North.Survey to probe Arctic ice melt
R. Black, BBC News, January 25, 2011. Scientists and explorers will shortly set off on an expedition aiming to discover how Arctic sea ice melts.Thermal evolution of diffusive transport of atmospheric halocarbons through artificial sea-ice
M.D. Shaw et al. Atmospheric Environment (2011) 45(35):6393-6402. Diffusion through brine channels in sea-ice is a potential pathway for trace gases produced under and within sea-ice to exchange with the overlying atmosphere. The effectiveness of this transport pathway is highly dependent on temperature and sea-ice thickness, both of which are changing in favor of increased gas diffusion through porous sea-ice.Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover
D.A. Rothrock et al. Geophysical Research Letters (1999) 26(23):3469-3472. Comparison of sea-ice draft data acquired on submarine cruises between 1993 and 1997 with similar data acquired between 1958 and 1976 indicates that the mean ice draft at the end of the melt season has decreased by about 1.3 m in most of the deep water portion of the Arctic Ocean.Total volume of Arctic ice shrank to record low in 2010
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, September 6, 2011. The total volume of Arctic sea ice shrank last fall to the smallest amount ever observed during the age of satellites, according to a new study that used an ultra-sophisticated computer modeling program that incorporates ocean observations, submarine data, and space-age monitoring.Toward an integrated coastal sea-ice observatory: System components and a case study at Barrow, Alaska
M.L. Druckenmiller et al. Cold Regions Science and Technology (2009) 56(2-3):61-72. The morphology, stability and duration of seasonal landfast sea ice in Alaska's coastal zone is changing alongside large-scale ice thinning and retreat. The extent and complexity of change at the local level requires an integrated observing approach to assess implications of such change for coastal ecosystems and communities that rely on or make use of the sea-ice cover.A transitioning Arctic surface energy budget: The impacts of solar zenith angle, surface albedo and cloud radiative forcing
J. Sedlar et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 37(7-8):1643-1660. Snow surface and sea-ice energy budgets were measured near 87.5°N during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), from August to early September 2008. Surface temperature indicated four distinct temperature regimes, characterized by varying cloud, thermodynamic and solar properties.Trends in the dates of ice freeze-up and breakup over Hudson Bay, Canada
A.S. Gagnon, W.A. Gough. Arctic (2005) 58(4):370-382. To identify secular trends in the cryogenic cycle, this study examined variability in the timing of sea-ice formation and retreat during the period 1971-2003.Trends in sea ice cover within habitats used by bowhead whales in the western Arctic
S.E. Moore, K.L. Laidre. Ecological Applications (2006) 16(3):932-944. This analysis elucidates the variability inherent in the western Arctic marine ecosystem at scales relevant to bowhead whales and contrasts basin-scale depictions of extreme sea ice retreats, thinning, and wind-driven movements.Unlocking the secrets of the Arctic's melting ice
BBC News, May 27, 2011. A scientist hopes that a better understanding of what is happening beneath the Arctic ice will offer an insight into why summer sea ice is melting at rate that is alarming experts.Variability and changes of Arctic sea ice thickness distribution under different AO/DA states
A. Oikkonen, J. Haapala. Cryosphere (2011) 5(1):131-167. In this paper, the authors determine the ice thickness distributions, mean and modal thicknesses, and their regional and seasonal variability in the Arctic under different large scale atmospheric circulation modes.Wacky weather forces climate change scientists to adapt
CBC News, April 4, 2008. Scientists had to change plans partway through a 10-month project started in October 2007 called the Circumpolar Flaw Lead system study.Warm winds from the Pacific caused extensive Arctic sea-ice melt in summer 2007
R.G. Graversen et al. Climate Dynamics (2010) DOI:10.1007/s00382-010-0809-z. The authors argue that the positive anomalies of net downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes played a key role in initiating the 2007 extreme ice melt, whereas the shortwave-radiation changes acted as an amplifying feedback mechanism in response to the melt.Warming North Atlantic water tied to heating Arctic
Science Daily, January 28, 2011. The temperatures of North Atlantic Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean adjacent to Greenland—the warmest water in at least 2,000 years—are likely related to the amplification of global warming in the Arctic, says a new international study involving the University of Colorado Boulder.Why climate models underestimated Arctic sea ice retreat: No Arctic sea ice in summer by end of century?
Science Daily, October 6, 2011. Researchers argue that climate models underestimate the rate of ice thinning, which is actually about four times faster than calculations, and that this model bias is due to the poor representation of the sea ice southward drift out of the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait.Why does an ice-free Arctic frighten scientists?
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, September 7, 2011. With ice extent setting records or near records every September during the past decade—and other indicators suggesting that the floes have lost record amounts of volume—some scientists fear the polar sea will be virtually ice free during summer decades earlier than once thought possible.Winds from Siberia reduce Arctic sea ice cover, Norwegian researchers find
Science Daily, April 28, 2010. The ice cover in the Arctic has decreased dramatically in recent years. Norwegian researchers have discovered that changes in air circulation patterns create winds that push away the ice.Young and thin instead of old and bulky: Researchers report on changes in Arctic sea ice after return of research vessel Polarstern
Science Daily, October 6, 2011. In the central Arctic the proportion of old, thick sea ice has declined significantly. Instead, the ice cover now largely consists of thin, one-year-old floes. This is one of the results that scientists of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association brought back from the 26th Arctic expedition of the research vessel Polarstern.Glaciers and Ice Sheets
Accelerating ice loss from the fastest Greenland and Antarctic glaciers
R. Thomas et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047304. Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets—Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG)—continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins.Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise
E. Rignot et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL046583. The authors present a consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the past 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity.Alaskan mountain glacial melting observed by satellite gravimetry
J.L. Chen et al. Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2006) 248(1-2):368-378. The authors use satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) as an indication of mass change to study potential long-term mountain glacial melting in southern Alaska and western Canada.Arctic Ocean freshwater will cause 'unpredictable changes on climate'
F. Harvey, guardian.co.uk, April 5, 2011. Ice cap meltwater and river run-off could have significant impact on the climates of Europe and North America, say scientists.Arctic paleoclimate synthesis thematic papers
J.J. Fitzpatrick et al. Quaternary Science Reviews (2010) 29(15-16):1674-1678. This issue of QSR contains five papers that were originally written as the technical chapters for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 1.2, Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes. The thematic papers here reintroduce the technical language of climate change and update the original SAP content with more recent information derived from literature published after the report was finalized for publication in 2008.Arctic summit to tackle melting glaciers
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," May 11, 2011. Canada, Russia, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States discuss proposals to accelerate exploration for oil and natural gas in northern waters and the implications of a new report that predicts that melting glaciers will raise sea level by more than five feet by the end of this century.Arctic warming: A perspective from Svalbard
V. Pohjola. Global Change Newsletter (2007) 69:9-12. If the warming projections by the climate models are correct, the northern Svalbard ice fields will likely begin to fade with an increasing rate within the decades to come.Arctic warming spurs record melting
R. Monastersky, Nature News, December 17, 2008. Record melting in northern Greenland and the widespread release of methane gas from formerly frozen deposits off the Siberian coast suggest that major changes are sweeping the Arctic, researchers say.Assessing the sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation to freshwater perturbation in various glacial climate states
C.J. Van Meerbeeck et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 37(9-10):1909-1927. A striking characteristic of glacial climate in the North Atlantic region is the recurrence of abrupt shifts between cold stadials and mild interstadials. These shifts have been associated with abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mode, possibly in response to glacial meltwater perturbations. The results of the present study imply that a more northern location of deep convection sites during milder glacial times may have amplified frequency and amplitude of abrupt climate shifts.Assessing the status of Alaska's glaciers
A.A. Arendt. Science (2011) 332(6033):1044-1045. The glaciers of Alaska and northwestern Canada have long been considered important contributors to global sea level, but their remoteness has complicated efforts to quantify how their mass is changing. Recently, global maps of water-mass variations, developed using satellite measurements of Earth's gravitational field (gravimetry), confirm with remarkable clarity the large role Alaska glaciers play in the global sea-level budget. However, these and other new observation technologies are revealing unexpected complexities in the magnitude and rate at which Alaska glaciers respond to climate.An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change
A.B.A. Slangen, R.S.W. van de Wal. Cryosphere (2011) 5(3):1655-1695. A large part of present-day sea-level change is formed by the melt of glaciers and ice caps (GIC). This study focuses on the uncertainties in the calculation of the GIC contribution on a century timescale.Big changes in the world's cold regions
PRI's "The World," May 5, 2011. A new report documents how fast the Arctic and Greenland are changing as the planet warms up. That could mean much higher sea levels than previously anticipated. Lisa Mullins talks with Walt Meier, one of the study's authors.Canadian ice shelves breaking up at record speed
CBC News, September 28, 2011. Researchers say ice shelves in the Canadian Arctic are breaking up and changing at an unexpectedly fast rate. They say the region lost almost half its ice shelf extent in the past six years.Changes at poles drive global warming
PBS NewsHour Science Report, February 23, 2007. Over the past several decades, temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the rate of average global temperatures. Meanwhile, sea and land ice in the Arctic and parts of Antarctica have been shrinking at a surprising and ever-growing rate, and permafrost is thawing across the Arctic. These and other changes pose an obvious threat to the polar regions. But, climate scientists say, they also signal changes to come around the globe.Changes in Alaska's environmental drivers: Realities and uncertainties
Lecture #9 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented January 19, 2010, by John Walsh, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks.Climate change: Losing Greenland
A. Witze, Nature News, April 16, 2008. One-twentieth of the world's ice is locked up atop the island of Greenland, and if it were to melt completely global sea levels would rise by seven meters. The collapse of the Greenland ice sheet is in the front rank of potential climate catastrophes.Climate scientists dig deep into Greenland's ice
PBS NewsHour, October 19, 2009. To study the history of climate change, scientists from 14 nations gathered in the far north end of Greenland to drill into the 1.6-mile core of solid ice. Climatologist and Climate Central correspondent Heidi Cullen looks at the way scientists are looking at the past to study the future of climate change.Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade
S.F. Price et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2011) 108(22):8978-8983. The authors use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100.Contribution of Alaskan glaciers to sea-level rise derived from satellite imagery
E. Berthier et al. Nature Geoscience (2010) 3(2):92-95. The authors combine a comprehensive glacier inventory with elevation changes derived from sequential digital elevation models.Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes
G. Kaser et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010) 107(47):20223-20227. Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. The authors estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems.Darkening peaks: Glacier retreat, science, and society
B. Orlove et al., eds., University of California Press, 2008, 296 pages. Looking up at mountains, people now see bare, dark rock where white snow and ice once stood—dramatic evidence of the accelerating pace of glacier retreat due to climate change. This book provides an integrated, multidisciplinary, global exploration of the scientific, social, and economic dimensions of this phenomenon.Disappearing glaciers and the rising sea
Video presented by Shad O'Neel, PhD, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, as part of the 2008 series "Perspectives on Ocean Science." Dr. O'Neel provides a tour of coastal glaciers and explains why scientists believe these glaciers' unique behavior will make them one of the largest contributors to sea level rise in the next century. (56:45)Documenting a collapsing ice shelf
J. Gillis, New York Times, August 31, 2011. One of the more dramatic events in the Arctic in recent years was the detachment, in 2010, of a large section of the ice shelf attached to Petermann Glacier, in northwest Greenland. Now a scientist who does extensive work in the Arctic, Jason E. Box of Ohio State University, is posting before-and-after images that give a better sense of the scale of the breakup.Earth's ice: Sea level, climate, and our future commitment
T. Scambos. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2011) 67(1):28-40. While the processes leading to the loss of ice are quickly started, they do not quickly stop. We are on the verge of committing ourselves to sizable increases in sea level. The author describes the processes that are rapidly eroding polar ice.Effects of a melted Greenland ice sheet on climate, vegetation, and the cryosphere
D.J. Lunt et al. Climate Dynamics (2002) 23(7-8):679-694. Using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), the authors investigate the effects of the removal of the Greenland ice sheet on atmospheric temperatures, circulation, and precipitation.Extreme Ice Survey (EIS)
EIS uses time-lapse photography, conventional photography, and video to document the rapid changes now occurring on the earth's glacial ice. The EIS team has installed 27 time-lapse cameras at 15 sites in Greenland, Iceland, Alaska, and the Rocky Mountains. EIS supplements this ongoing record with annual repeat photography in Iceland, the Alps, and Bolivia.Extreme melt on Canada's Arctic ice caps in the 21st century
M. Sharp et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047381. Canada's Queen Elizabeth Islands contain ~14% of Earth's glacier and ice cap area. Relative to 2000-2004, strong summer warming since 2005 has increased summer mean ice surface temperatures and melt season length on the major ice caps in this region.Fastest Glacier
PBS' NOVA ScienceNOW, July 26, 2005. NOVA correspondent Peter Standring accompanies scientists as they explore the complex dynamics of Greenland's massive Jakobshavn glacier and try to unravel the mystery of its hurried melting. There is a link to an expert Q & A with glaciologists Jay Zwally and Koni Steffen posted August 1, 2005, and a link to a teacher resource posted January 17, 2008.The fate of Greenland: Lessons from abrupt climate change
P. Conkling et al., MIT Press, 2011, 224 pages. Ninety percent of Greenland is covered by ice. This book documents Greenland's warming with color photographs and investigates Greenland's climate history for clues about what happens when climate change is abrupt rather than gradual.Forty-seven years of research on the Devon Island ice cap, Arctic Canada
S. Boon et al. Arctic (2010) 63(1):13-29. The Devon Island ice cap has been the subject of scientific study for almost half a century, beginning with the first mass balance measurements in 1961. This paper summarizes our current knowledge of the Devon Island ice cap and identifies some of the outstanding questions that continue to limit our understanding of climate–ice cap interactions in Arctic regions.Freshwater flux to Sermilik Fjord, SE Greenland
S.H. Mernild et al. The Cryosphere (2010) 4(3):1195-1224. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution, snow and ice melt, and runoff modeling system, was used to simulate the temporal and spatial terrestrial runoff distribution to the fjord based on observed meteorological data (1999-2008) from stations located on and around the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS).Giant iceberg breaks as term 'global warming' hits 35
NPR's "All Things Considered," August 8, 2010. A chunk of ice broke free in the waters of Greenland a few days ago, and it's not just any ice cube: This one's four times the size of Manhattan, containing enough fresh water to supply the entire United States for 120 days. Guy Raz charts the biggest Arctic iceberg in nearly 50 years, and then checks in with Wallace Broecker, who 35 years ago today published a paper that gave a name to one of the most pressing issues of our time: global warming.Glacier monitoring in Denali National Park and Preserve
G. Adema. Alaska Park Science (2007) 6(2):26-30. The objective of the glacier-monitoring program in Denali is to establish baseline conditions of selected glaciers and to detect and understand glacial processes. Pursuing this objective will allow detection of the effects of climate fluctuations as they happen and to better understand the natural evolution of the Denali landscape, much of which has been shaped by glacial processes.Glaciers as a source of ancient and labile organic matter to the marine environment
E. Hood et al. Nature (2009) 462:1044-1047. Glaciers and ice sheets represent the second largest reservoir of water in the global hydrologic system. The authors suggest that climatically driven changes in glacier volume could alter the age, quantity, and reactivity of dissolved organic matter (DOM) entering coastal oceans.Global outlook for ice and snow
Report by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2007. Ice, snow and climate change are closely linked. This report investigates those connections, the current situation of ice and snow, and the global significance of changes, now and in the years to come.Global warming and the Greenland ice sheet
P. Chylek et al. Climatic Change (2004) 63(1-2):201-221. The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century global warming trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend.Greenland glacier melting faster than expected
Science Daily, August 18, 2011. A key glacier in Greenland is melting faster than previously expected, according to findings by a team of academics.Greenland glaciers lose enough ice to fill Lake Erie, study says
Yale Environment 360, May 24, 2011. The rate of ice loss at two of Greenland's largest glaciers has increased so much over the past decade that, if melted, the amount would be enough to fill Lake Erie, according to a new study.Greenland ice sheet future grim, says Aberystwyth study
BBC News, December 29, 2010. A glaciologist warns that the Greenland ice sheet is "retreating and thinning extensively" after a year of record-breaking high temperatures.The Greenland Ice Sheet in a Changing Climate (GRIS)
Links to moving images, photographs, and publications about the Greenland ice sheet. Includes the GRIS summary report and full report.Greenland ice sheet is safer than scientists previously thought
D. Carrington, guardian.co.uk, January 26, 2011. The threat of the Greenland ice sheet slipping ever faster into the sea because of warmer summers has been ruled out by a scientific study.Greenland ice sheets melting faster than predicted
PRI's "The World," May 6, 2011. A new report projects that global warming will cause sea levels to rise from three to five feet over the next 90 years, inundating many coastal regions, and that much of the increase will come from melting ice in the Arctic and Greenland.Greenland's contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century
R.G. Graversen et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 37(7-8):1427-1442. The Greenland ice sheet holds enough water to raise the global sea level by ~7 m. Over the past few decades, observations manifest a substantial increase of the mass loss of this ice sheet. Using a dynamical and thermodynamical ice-sheet model, and taking into account speed-up of outlet glaciers, the authors estimate Greenland's contribution to the 21st-century global sea-level rise and the uncertainty of this estimate.Half a century of measurements of glaciers on Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, Canada
J.G. Cogley et al. Arctic (2011) 64(3):371-375. Mass-balance monitoring, initiated in 1959, continues to 2011. Measurement series such as these provide invaluable context for understanding climatic change at high northern latitudes, where in-situ information is sparse and lacks historical depth, and where warming is projected to be most pronounced.Hear from the real iceman
PBS' NOVA ScienceNOW, April 1, 2009. Lonnie Thompson is a senior research scientist at Ohio State University's Byrd Polar Research Center and one of the world's foremost authorities on ancient climate. Here he talks about why today's accelerated melting of glaciers should concern us on fronts as divergent as drinking water and coastal living, climate change and infectious disease, refugees, and terrorism.'Hidden plumbing' helps slow Greenland ice flow: Hotter summers may actually slow down flow of glaciers
ScienceDaily, January 27, 2011. Hotter summers may not be as catastrophic for the Greenland ice sheet as previously feared and may actually slow down the flow of glaciers, according to new research.High above the Earth, satellites track melting ice
M.D. Lemonick. Environment 360 (2010). The surest sign of a warming Earth is the steady melting of its ice zones, from disappearing sea ice in the Arctic to shrinking glaciers worldwide. Now, scientists are using increasingly sophisticated satellite technology to measure the extent, thickness, and height of ice, assembling an essential picture of a planet in transition.How do ice cores allow researchers to see climate change?
Punctuated Equilibrium, guardian.co.uk, May 12, 2011. Ice sheet layers can be read like the pages of a book—if you know the language. In this video, we see how scientists are deciphering the history of Earth's climate from ice cores taken from western Antarctica.Ice cores: Archives of past climate
Punctuated Equilibrium, guardian.co.uk, June 10, 2011. Ice sheets are analogous to miles-thick layer cakes of snow that have been compressed under their own weight. Each year, snow falls on the surface of an ice sheet, and over time these layers become buried and are crushed into ice. At the depth where compressed snow transitions fully to ice, the little spaces of air between the grains are sealed off. As if sealed in a bottle made of ice, this ancient air still exists.Ice sheets and the ice-core record of climate change
K.M. Cuffey, E.J. Brook. International Geophysics (2000) 72:459-497. Chapter 18 of a special volume titled Earth System Science—From Biogeochemical Cycles to Global Change.Ice sheets becoming dominant contributor to sea level rise
M. Lemonick, OnEarth, March 9, 2011. The ice that remains in mountain glaciers and ice caps—and, more significantly, in the massive ice sheets that smother Antarctica and Greenland under frigid blankets up to two miles thick in places—is moving to the sea once again. Just how high and how fast global sea level will rise as a result is still uncertain.Ice sheets, global warming, and article 2 of the UNFCCC
M. Oppenheimer, R.B. Alley. Climatic Change (2005) 68(3):257-267. A number of recent findings have refocused attention about ice sheet demise on Greenland.Impact of fjord dynamics and glacial runoff on the circulation near Helheim Glacier
F. Straneo. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(5):322-327. Submarine melting is an important contributor to the mass balance of tidewater glaciers in Greenland, and has been suggested as a trigger for their widespread acceleration. Here, the authors use oceanographic data collected in August 2009 and March 2010 at the margins of Helheim Glacier, Greenland, to show that the melting circulation is affected by seasonal runoff from the glacier and by the fjord's externally forced currents and stratification.Impact of global warming on the Arctic
C-Span Video Library, November 26, 2007. Video of an American Meteorological Society conference where scientists spoke about the impact of global warming on conditions in the Arctic, sea ice melt rates, and measured shrinking of polar ice sheets. (1:42:40)Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity
H. Goelzer et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 37(5-6):1005-1018. The authors use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to show the effect of coupling interactive ice sheets on the climate sensitivity of the model on a millennial time scale.The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: A partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments
R.E. Kopp et al. Climatic Change (2010) 103(3-4):619-625. Local sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution.Impacts of recent paraglacial dynamics on plant colonization: A case study on Midtre Lovénbreen foreland, Spitsbergen (79°N)
M. Moreau et al. Geomorphology (2008) 95(1-2):48-60. Within one century on Spitsbergen, valley glaciers have retreated up to 1 km from their original terminus as of 1918, affecting several hundred hectares of two types of landscape processes: plant colonization and paraglacial morphogenesis.In the Arctic, a time-lapse view of climate change
NPR's "Fresh Air," March 18, 2009. Intent on documenting the effects of climate change, nature photographer James Balog ventured into ice-bound regions with 26 time-lapse cameras, which he programmed to shoot a frame every daylight hour for three years. The resulting images, which make up Balog's "Extreme Ice Survey" project, show ice sheets and glaciers breaking apart and disappearing.In Greenland, ice unlocks climate change history
PBS NewsHour, October 19, 2009. Scientists dig deep into Greenland's ice to unearth the history of climate change. Climatologist and Climate Central correspondent Heidi Cullen reports.Lie of the land beneath glaciers influences impact on sea levels
Science Daily, July 12, 2011. Scientists have shown for the first time that the terrain beneath glaciers influences how much glacier melt contributes to fluctuations in sea levels.Lonnie Thompson: Expert Q & A
PBS' NOVA ScienceNOW, August 3, 2009. Lonnie Thompson and Ellen Mosley-Thompson, climatologists at Byrd Polar Research Center, answer a range of viewer questions about the rapid melting of glaciers and its implications, including how to counter skepticism about global climate change.Mass balance of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, 2000-2010
I.M. Howat et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047565. Acceleration of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers—Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq, and Jakobshavn Isbræ—accounted for a substantial portion of the ice sheet's mass loss over the past decade. Rapid changes in their discharge, however, make their cumulative mass-change uncertain.Melt zone
M. Jenkins. National Geographic (2010) 217(6):34-47. Photographic journal of shifting meltwater of the Greenland ice sheet.Melting snow and ice: A call for action
Former Vice President Al Gore and Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre presented this global report on melting ice at a side event of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP 15) December 14, 2009. (PDF 15.2 MB)Melting trends over the Greenland ice sheet (1958-2009) from spaceborne microwave data and regional climate models
X. Fettweis et al. Cryosphere (2010) 4(4):2433-2473. To study near-surface melt changes over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) since 1979, melt extent estimates from two regional climate models are compared with those obtained from spaceborne microwave brightness temperatures using two different remote sensing algorithms.New melt record for Greenland Ice Sheet: 'Exceptional' season stretched up to 50 days longer than average
ScienceDaily, January 21, 2011. New research shows that 2010 set new records for the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, expected to be a major contributor to projected sea level rises in coming decades.No place too cold
J. Laybourn-Parry. Science (2009) 324(5934):1521-1522. Free water on or under glaciers or ice sheets contains numerous species of microorganisms. These delicate ecosystems are widely regarded as sentinels of climate change. Recent studies of polar and glacial lakes, as well as subglacial environments, have shed light on how these ecosystems function and on the role they play in nutrient cycling.Out of equilibrium? The world's changing ice cover
C.W. Schmidt. Environmental Health Perspectives (2011) 119(1):A20-A28. Accelerated melting of the glaciers and other frozen masses that make up Earth's cryosphere has become a widespread phenomenon. The fastest warming rates are in the Arctic, where temperatures are increasing at twice the global average.Petermann Glacier, North Greenland: Massive calving in 2010 and the past half century
O.M. Johannessen et al. Cryosphere (2011) 5(1):169-181. Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers drain large amounts of solid ice through calving of icebergs, as well as melting of floating glacial ice. Petermann Glacier, North Greenland, has the Northern Hemisphere's longest floating ice shelf. A massive calving event was observed from satellite sensors in August 2010. In order to understand this in perspective, the authors perform a comprehensive retrospective data analysis of Petermann Glacier calving-front variability spanning half a century.Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models
B. Franco et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 36(9-10):1897-1918. The atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970-1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR).Profile: Lonnie Thompson
PBS' NOVA ScienceNOW, July 28, 2009. For more than 30 years, glaciologist Lonnie Thompson has been collecting ice. Why? Because cores of ice from high mountain glaciers contain significant data about past climate change, which can be useful in helping us combat current climate change. All told, Thompson has worked in 15 countries on five continents, helping to build an invaluable archive dating back 700,000 years.Rapid response of modern day ice sheets to external forcing
J.L. Bamber et al. Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2007) 257(1-2):1-13. The great ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland were traditionally believed to take thousands of years to respond to external forcing. Recent observations suggest, however, that major changes in the dynamics of parts of the ice sheets are taking place over timescales of years. These changes were not predicted by numerical models, and the underlying cause(s) remains uncertain.Record mass loss from Greenland's best-observed local glacier
S.H. Mernild et al. Cryosphere (2011) 5(1):461-477. The authors document record mass loss in 2009-2010 for the Mittivakkat Glacier, the only local glacier in Greenland for which there exist long-term observations of both the surface mass balance and glacier front fluctuations. Mass-balance observations provide unique documentation of the general retreat of Southeast Greenland's local glaciers under ongoing climate warming.Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise
V. Radic, R. Hock. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(2):91-94. The authors project glacier and ice-cap volume changes due to melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models.Reshaping Alaska: The effects of climate change
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," June 8, 2007. From melting permafrost, to dwindling sea ice, to shrinking glaciers, changes in the Alaskan environment are happening faster than was predicted. Scientists discuss what is taking place in Alaska and the Arctic, and how it is linked to climate change.Rising oceans: Too late to turn the tide?
Science Daily, July 18, 2011. As the world's climate becomes warmer due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, sea levels are expected to rise by up to three feet by the end of this century. But the question remains: How much of that will be due to ice sheets melting as opposed to the oceans' 332 billion cubic miles of water increasing in volume as they warm up?The role of albedo and accumulation in the 2010 melting record in Greenland
M. Tedesco et al. Environmental Research Letters (2011) 6(1):014005. Analyses of remote sensing data, surface observations and output from a regional atmosphere model point to new records in 2010 for surface melt and albedo, runoff, the number of days when bare ice is exposed and surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, especially over its west and southwest regions.Satellite-observed changes in the Arctic
J.C. Comiso, C.L. Parkinson. Physics Today (2004) 57(8):38-44. LANDSAT and ASTER data have confirmed a variety of changes in Arctic glaciers—with some growing, some decreasing, some oscillating, and some remaining fairly steady—although the net trend has been towards reduced glacial coverage. In Alaska alone, polar-orbiting satellites are monitoring 15,000 glaciers, most of which appear to be retreating.Scientific studies on climate change in Alaska's national parks
Alaska Park Science (2007) 6(1). This issue of Alaska Park Science contains reports on interpreting the science of climate change, the effects of climate change on the glaciers of Denali National Park, climate change consequences for subsistence communities, the frozen past of Wrangell-St. Elias, and glacial rebound in Glacier Bay.Sea-level rise: Melting glaciers and ice caps
F. Paul. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(2):71-72. The contribution of glaciers and ice caps to global sea-level rise is uncertain: they are incompletely counted and the calculation is challenging. A new estimate from the best available data suggests a contribution of about 12 cm by 2100.Sea level rise less from Greenland, more from Antarctica, than expected during last interglacial
Science Daily, July 29, 2011. University of Wisconsin-Madison geoscience assistant professor Anders Carlson and his research team sought a way to constrain where ice remained on Greenland during the last interglacial period, around 125,000 years ago, to better define past ice sheet behavior and improve future projections.Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
A.S. Gardner et al. Nature (2011) 473(7347):357-360. The Canadian Arctic Archipelago, located off the northwestern shore of Greenland, contains one-third of the global volume of land ice outside the ice sheets. Here, estimates are of regional mass changes for the ice caps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago referring to the years 2004 to 2009.Shrinking ice, rising seas
Sea level rise is an indicator that our planet is warming. Much of the world's population lives on or near the coast, and rising seas are something worth watching. This video is one episode of NASA's series called "Tides of Change." (4:30)A simple holistic hypothesis for the self-destruction of ice sheets
T. Hughes. Quaternary Science Reviews (2011) 30(15-16):1829-1845. Ice sheets are the only components of Earth's climate system that can self-destruct. A hypothesis is presented in which self-destruction of an ice sheet begins when ubiquitous ice-bed decoupling, quantified as a floating fraction of ice, proceeds along ice streams. This causes ice streams to surge and reduce thickness by some 90 percent, and height above sea level by up to 99 percent for floating ice, so the ice sheet undergoes gravitational collapse.Snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA)
SWIPA 2011 Executive Summary, AMAP. The SWIPA Assessment follows on from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), published in 2005. It aims to update the findings from ACIA and to provide more in-depth coverage of issues related to the Arctic cryosphere. (PDF 27.9 MB)Spitsbergen landscape under 20th century climate change: Sørkapp Land
W. Ziaja. Ambio (2004) 33(6):295-299. The principal aim of this paper is to outline the reaction of a middle-sized region of the European Arctic landscape to climate change during the 20th century. Climatic change influences all elements of the Arctic landscape of Svalbard, but the most important for landscape transformation are changes resulting from deglaciation.Supraglacial forcing of subglacial drainage in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet
I. Bartholomew et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047063. The authors measure hydrological parameters in meltwater draining from an outlet glacier in west Greenland to investigate seasonal changes in the structure and behavior of the hydrological system of a large catchment in the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS).The thawing of Alaska
BBC News, November 10, 1998. BBC environmental correspondent Robert Pigott reports on dramatic landscape changes caused by Alaska's melting glaciers.Times Atlas reviews Greenland map accuracy after climate change row
guardian.co.uk, September 22, 2011. The publishers of the Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World have said they were "urgently reviewing" the depiction of Greenland's permanent ice cover in the latest edition, amid questions over the accuracy of the new map.Times Atlas 'wrong' on Greenland ice
Richard Black, BBC News, September 10, 2011. Leading UK polar scientists say the Times Atlas of the World was wrong to assert that it has had to redraw its map of Greenland due to climate change.Two Greenland glaciers lose enough ice to fill Lake Erie
Science Daily, May 24, 2011. A new study aimed at refining the way scientists measure ice loss in Greenland is providing a "high-definition picture" of climate-caused changes on the island.Warming ocean layers will undermine polar ice sheets, climate models show
Science Daily, July 4, 2011. Warming of the ocean's subsurface layers will melt underwater portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets faster than previously thought, according to new University of Arizona–led research. Such melting would increase the sea level more than already projected.What can we learn from the ice sheets?
G. Aðalgeirsdóttir. Proceedings of the Fifth Northern Research Forum (2008). Here, a brief overview of current knowledge concerning the state of balance of glaciers and ice sheets in the world is given, followed by a more detailed discussion of the state of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Icelandic ice caps.When glacial giants roll over
A. Levermann. Nature (2011) 472(7341):43-44. The energy released by capsizing icebergs can be equal to that of small earthquakes—enough to create ocean waves of considerable magnitude. Should such 'glacial tsunamis' be added to the list of future global-warming hazards?Worry but don't panic over glacial losses
R.A. Kerr. Science (2011) 331(6014):143. A study of the forces acting on the Jakobshavn Glacier of southern Greenland shows that Jakobshavn is accelerating and thus increasing the rate of sea level rise—plenty of cause for worry—but the researchers say that Jakobshavn is not totally off its leash.Permafrost
Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss
D.M. Lawrence et al. Geophysical Reseearch Letters (2008) doi:10.1029/2008GL033985. The authors evaluate how rapid sea ice loss affects terrestrial Arctic climate and ground thermal state in the Community Climate System Model. They find that simulated western Arctic land warming trends during rapid sea ice loss are 3.5 times greater than secular 21st century climate-change trends.Ancient permafrost and a future, warmer Arctic
D.G. Froese et al. Science (2008) 321(5896):1648. Authors report the presence of relict ground ice in subarctic Canada that is greater than 700,000 years old, with the implication that ground ice in this area has survived past interglaciations that were warmer and of longer duration than the present interglaciation.'Arctic Armageddon' needs more science, less hype
R.A. Kerr. Science (2010) 329(5992):620-621. The threat of global warming amplifying itself by triggering massive methane releases is real and may already be under way, providing plenty of fodder for scary headlines. But what researchers understand about the threat points to a less malevolent, more protracted process.Arctic climate will change faster than Antarctic
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, August 11, 2011. The Arctic—with its ice cap riding a vast, roiling ocean and its landscape underlain by saturated permafrost—will change faster than the drier, continental Antarctic, according to a Penn State hydrologist who studies the role played by water in polar ecology.The Arctic: 'First and worst'
CBC News, October 12, 1989. The Arctic is getting warmer. Temperatures in the permafrost have risen two degrees since the 1940s, according to this 1989 CBC-TV clip. Many scientists say global warming will affect the Arctic "first and worst" and believe a warmer Arctic could spell trouble for the whole planet. In this clip, experts explain why.Arctic warming spurs record melting
R. Monastersky, Nature News, December 17, 2008. Record melting in northern Greenland and the widespread release of methane gas from formerly frozen deposits off the Siberian coast suggest that major changes are sweeping the Arctic, researchers say.Arctic will transform into greenhouse gas source by 2100
D. O'Harra, Alaska Dispatch, September 2, 2011. Thawing of Arctic permafrost will likely dump 68 billion extra tons of carbon into the air before 2100, giving global warming an unexpected jolt and transforming the Far North into one of the world's net sources for climate-changing greenhouse gases, according to a new study by an international team of scientists.As climate changes, methane trapped under Arctic Ocean could bubble to the surface
D. Krotz, Berkeley Lab, May 4, 2011. A two-part study by scientists from the U.S Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and Los Alamos National Laboratory paints one of the most detailed pictures yet of how climate change could impact millions of tons of methane frozen in sediment beneath the Arctic Ocean.A baseline study of permafrost in the Toklat Basin, Denali National Park and Preserve
L.C. Yocum et al. Alaska Park Science (2007) 6(2):37-40. The Toklat Basin is a remote and intact ecosystem in northeastern Denali National Park and Preserve. Until recently, natural and physical resource baseline data of the basin were sparse. The authors conducted a reconnaissance survey of surficial geology, permafrost, and permafrost-related features over two field seasons and found the Toklat Basin to be a permafrost-rich environment with many geomorphic features indicative of thawing permafrost.The big thaw
Popular Science online, February 2, 2009. The Arctic's permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. As global temperatures rise, the frozen ground is melting fast and releasing greenhouse gases.Changes at poles drive global warming
PBS NewsHour Science Report, February 23, 2007. Over the past several decades, temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the rate of average global temperatures. Meanwhile, sea and land ice in the Arctic and parts of Antarctica have been shrinking at a surprising and ever-growing rate, and permafrost is thawing across the Arctic. These and other changes pose an obvious threat to the polar regions. But, climate scientists say, they also signal changes to come around the globe.Changes in Alaska's environmental drivers: Realities and uncertainties
Lecture #9 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented January 19, 2010, by John Walsh, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks.The changing climate of the Arctic
D.G. Barber et al. Arctic (2008) 61(Suppl 1):7-26. Evidence is now accumulating that the Arctic is warming, and responses are being observed across physical, biological, and social systems.Climate change: High risk of permafrost thaw
E.A.G. Schuur, B. Abbott. Nature (2011) 480(7375):32-33. Northern soils will release huge amounts of carbon in a warmer world, say Edward A. G. Schuur, Benjamin Abbott, and the Permafrost Carbon Network.Climate change considerations
Chapter 4 of An Evaluation of the Science Needs to Inform Decisions on Outer Continental Shelf Energy Development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska, L. Holland-Bartels, B. Pierce (eds.), Circular 1370, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 2011.Climate change disequilibrium of boreal permafrost peatlands caused by local processes
P. Camill, J.S. Clark. The American Naturalist (1998) 151(3):207-222. Boreal forest and tundra are the biomes expected to experience the greatest warming during the course of the next century. The transient responses of boreal peatlands to climate change could be more complex than a simple large release of carbon and rapid migrations of vegetation and permafrost.Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay region: An intermodel comparison
A.S. Gagnon, W.A. Gough. Climatic Change (2005) 69(2-3):269-297. This study compares the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. The analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution.Climate change scientists turn up the heat in Alaska
ScienceDaily, June 30, 2010. Scientists at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory are planning a large-scale, long-term ecosystem experiment to test the effects of global warming on the icy layers of arctic permafrost.Climate-driven release of carbon and mercury from permafrost mires increases mercury loading to sub-arctic lakes
J. Rydberg. Science of the Total Environment (2010) 408(20):4778-4783. Many northern peatlands are currently underlain by permafrost, which controls mire stability and hydrology. With the ongoing climate change, there is concern that permafrost thawing will turn large areas of these peatlands from carbon/mercury-sinks into much wetter carbon/mercury-sources.Cryosphere: Permafrost protection
A. Newton. Nature Geoscience (2007) doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.9. Peat layers and Arctic forests may insulate permafrost from rising air temperatures.Disequilibrium response of permafrost thaw to climate warming in Canada over 1850-2100
Y. Zhang et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2008) doi:10.1029/2007GL032117. In this study, the authors simulated the transient changes in ground thermal regimes and permafrost status in Canada over 1850-2100 at a half-degree latitude/longitude resolution using a process-based model.The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of Interior Alaska: Implications for post-thaw carbon loss
J.A. O'Donnell et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(3):1461-1474. The authors examined how interactions between fire and permafrost govern rates of soil organic carbon accumulation in organic horizons, mineral soil of the active layer, and near-surface permafrost in a black spruce ecosystem of Interior Alaska.The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra
E.A.G. Schuur et al. Nature (2009) 459:556-559. Permafrost soils in boreal and Arctic ecosystems store almost twice as much carbon as is currently present in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw and the microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon is considered one of the most likely positive climate feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a warmer world.Effects of experimental warming of air, soil and permafrost on carbon balance in Alaskan tundra
S.M. Natali et al. Global Change Biology (2011) 17(3):1394-1407. To determine the effects of air and soil warming on CO2 exchange in tundra, the authors established an ecosystem warming experiment—the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research (CiPEHR) project—in the northern foothills of the Alaska Range in Interior Alaska.Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
N. Shakhova et al. Science (2010) 327(5970):1246-1250. Remobilization to the atmosphere of only a small fraction of the methane held in East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments could trigger abrupt climate warming. It is believed that sub-sea permafrost acts as a lid to keep this shallow methane reservoir in place.Fears grow over melting permafrost
Q. Schiermeier. Nature (2001) Nature 409:751. A seventh of the Earth's carbon is stored in frozen Arctic soil, scientists say, and huge amounts of greenhouse gases will be released into the atmosphere if rising temperatures cause the permafrost to melt and its organic material to be broken down by bacteria.Fears surface over methane leaks
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, September 26, 2008. Preliminary data from two Arctic cruises suggest that rising temperatures are already causing substantial amounts of methane to be released from beneath the ocean floor. But catastrophic gas leaks, like those believed to have occurred 55 million years ago, are unlikely, scientists say.Fifty years of coastal erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity on Herschel Island, southern Beaufort Sea, Yukon Territory, Canada
H. Lantuit, W.H. Pollard. Geomorphology (2008) 95(1-2):84-102. Climate change in the Arctic is expected to result in increased rates of coastal erosion due to warming permafrost, increasing active layer depths and thermokarst, rising sea levels, reduction in sea ice extent and duration, and increasing storm impacts.Frozen Ground: The News Bulletin of the International Permafrost Association
This is an annual publication of the IPA, which was founded in 1983 and has as its objectives to foster the dissemination of knowledge concerning permafrost and to promote cooperation among persons and national or international organizations engaged in scientific investigation and engineering work on permafrost.Geochemistry of west Siberian streams and their potential response to permafrost degradation
K.E. Frey et al. Water Resources Research (2007) 43(3). Warming and permafrost degradation will likely amplify the transport of dissolved solids to the Kara Sea and adjacent Arctic Ocean. Permafrost forms a confining barrier that inhibits the infiltration of surface water through deep mineral horizons and restricts mineral-rich subpermafrost groundwater from reaching surface water pathways. With climate warming and subsequent permafrost thaw, this region may transition from a surface water–dominated system to a groundwater-dominated system.Global climate change: Permafrost and the changing Arctic
Education module within the Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA), a NASA-, NSF- and NOAA-supported program implemented by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) to improve the quality of geoscience instruction for pre-service and in-service K-12 teachers.High nitrous oxide production from thawing permafrost
B. Elberling et al. Nature Geoscience (2010) 3(5):332-335. The authors examined the impact of thawing on nitrous oxide production in permafrost cores collected from a heath site and a wetland site in Zackenberg, Greenland.Impacts of peat and vegetation on permafrost degradation under climate warming
S. Yi et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2007) 34:doi:10.1029/2007GL030550. A thin peat layer or surface organic cover can significantly buffer the permafrost against severe degradation. The occurrence of vegetation and extensive presence of a peat and organic layer in the circumpolar areas will modulate the regional impact of climate warming on permafrost thaw.Integrated analysis of physical and biological pan-arctic change
J.E. Overland et al. Climatic Change (2004) 63(3):291-322. This study investigates the recent large changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period of 1965-1995 through examination of 86 regionally dispersed time series representing seven data types: climate indices, atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, sea ice, fisheries, and other biological data.Large methane releases could swamp Arctic's ability to absorb the gas
Yale Environment 360, May 5, 2011. A new study by two U.S. government research laboratories forecasts that vast amounts of methane frozen in Arctic Ocean sediments could be released into the marine environment and the atmosphere as the region warms.Large N2O emissions from cryoturbated peat soil in tundra
M.E. Repo et al. Nature Geoscience (2009) 2(3):189-192. The authors conclude that not only carbon but also nitrogen stored in permafrost soils has to be considered when assessing the present and future climatic impact of tundra.Large tundra methane burst during onset of freezing
M. Mastepanov et al. Nature (2008) 456:628-630. Permafrost-associated freeze-in bursts of methane emissions from tundra regions could be an important and so far unrecognized component of the seasonal distribution of methane emissions from high latitudes.Largest recorded tundra fire yields scientific surprises
Science Daily, July 27, 2011. A study of the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire on Alaska's North Slope revealed how rapidly a single tundra fire can offset or reverse a half-century worth of soil-stored carbon.Melting Arctic Ocean raises threat of 'methane time bomb'
S.Q. Stranahan, Environment 360 (2008). Scientists have long believed that thawing permafrost in Arctic soils could release huge amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Now they are watching with increasing concern as methane begins to bubble up from the bottom of the fast-melting Arctic Ocean.Melting permafrost
PRI's "The World," February 25, 2011. Interview with Kevin Schaefer, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.Melting permafrost in Siberia - Climate voices
GreenpeaceVideo, 2009. Greenpeace reports that the melting permafrost not only affects the way of life of the indigenous nomadic Nenets people, but also adds burden on climate change due to massive release of methane and carbon dioxide due to decomposion in the defrosting soil. (3:37 min)Melting snow and ice: A call for action
Former Vice President Al Gore and Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre presented this global report on melting ice at a side event of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP 15) December 14, 2009. (PDF 15.2 MB)Melting tundra creating vast river of waste into Arctic Ocean
ScienceDaily, January 12, 2010. The increase in temperature in the Arctic has already caused the sea-ice there to melt. According to research conducted by the University of Gothenburg, if the Arctic tundra also melts, vast amounts of organic material will be carried by the rivers straight into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in additional emissions of carbon dioxide.Methane bubbling from northern lakes: Present and future contributions to the global methane budget
K.M. Walter et al. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (2007) 365(1856):1657-1676. Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane (CH4) limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Here, the authors describe and quantify an important source of CH4—point-source ebullition (bubbling) from northern lakes—that has not been incorporated in previous regional or global methane budgets.Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming
K.M. Walter et al. Nature (2006) 443:71-75. Thaw lakes in North Siberia are known to emit methane, but the magnitude of these emissions remains uncertain because most methane is released through ebullition (bubbling), which is spatially and temporally variable. Here, the authors report a new method of measuring ebullition and use it to quantify methane emissions from two thaw lakes in North Siberia.Methane bursts from frozen tundra
A. Barnett, Nature News, December 3, 2008. Ice build-up may squeeze greenhouse gas from cold soil.Methane emissions from permafrost thaw lakes limited by lake drainage
J. van Huissteden et al. Nature Climate Change (2011) 1:119-123. Results suggest that methane emissions from thaw lakes in Siberia are an order of magnitude less alarming than previously suggested, although predicted lake expansion will still profoundly affect permafrost ecosystems and infrastructure.Methane flare from a lake in Fairbanks, Alaska
Researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) are studying methane generated by lakes created by thawing permafrost. This YouTube video shows a field trip in December 2008 that illustrates a typical methane "hot spot" under the ice.Methane releases from Arctic Shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated
ScienceDaily, March 5, 2010. A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.Modelling geomorphic response to climatic change
N.J. Couture, W.H. Pollard. Climatic Change (2007) 85(3-4):407-431. This paper develops a three-step thaw model to assess the impact of predicted warming on an ice-rich polar desert landscape in the Canadian high Arctic.Modelling past and future permafrost conditions in Svalbard
B. Etzelmüller et al. Cryosphere (2010) 4(4):1877-1908. Variations in ground thermal conditions in Svalbard were studied based on measurements and theoretical calculations. The authors discuss ground temperature development since the early 20th century, and the thermal responses in relation to ground characteristics and snow cover.Modelling the temperature evolution of permafrost and seasonal frost in southern Norway during the 20th and 21st century
T. Hipp et al. Cryosphere (2011) 5(2):811-854. A heat flow model was used to simulate both past and future ground temperatures of mountain permafrost in Southern Norway.Molecular investigations into a globally important carbon pool: permafrost-protected carbon in Alaskan soils
M.P. Waldrop et al. Global Change Biology (2010) 16(9):2543-2554. The fate of carbon (C) contained within permafrost in boreal forest environments is an important consideration for the current and future carbon cycle as soils warm in northern latitudes. Currently, little is known about the microbiology or chemistry of permafrost soils that may affect its decomposition once soils thaw.Northern wildfires threaten runaway climate change, study reveals
Science Daily, December 6, 2010. Fires in the Alaskan interior—an area spanning 18.5 million hectares—have become more severe in the past 10 years and have released much more carbon into the atmosphere than was stored by the region's forests over the same period.Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment
M.C. Serreze et al. Climatic Change (2000) 46(1-2):159-207. Studies from a variety of disciplines document recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Prompted by predictions of an amplified response of the Arctic to enhanced greenhouse forcing, the authors present a synthesis of these observations.Observing the scars of the Arctic thaw
J. Qiu, Nature News, June 30, 2009. Ecologist Breck Bowden talks about the consequences of thawing permafrost in Alaska.Permafrost and the global carbon budget
S.A. Zimov et al. Science (2006) 312(5780):1612-1613. Climate warming will thaw permafrost, releasing trapped carbon from this high-latitude reservoir and further exacerbating global warming.Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
C.D. Koven et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2011) 108(39). Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming.Permafrost change: What it means to Alaskans and how we can adapt
Fact sheet published by the Alaska Sea Grant Marine Advisory Program with support from the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP).Permafrost-climatic monitoring of Russia: Analysis of field data and forecast
A.V. Pavlov. Polar Geography (2008) 31(1-2):27-46. The author surveys work currently under way in the Russian Federation to assess the interrelationship between climate and permafrost and its use as a basis for forecasting change in permafrost conditions.Permafrost could release vast amounts of carbon and accelerate climate change by end of century
Science Daily, August 24, 2011. Billions of tons of carbon trapped in high-latitude permafrost may be released into the atmosphere by the end of this century as Earth's climate changes, further accelerating global warming, a new computer modeling study indicates.Permafrost degradation and ecological changes associated with a warming climate in central Alaska
M.T. Jorgenson et al. Climatic Change (2001) 48(4):551-579. Studies from 1994-1998 on the Tanana Flats in central Alaska reveal that permafrost degradation is widespread and rapid, causing large shifts in ecosystems from birch forests to fens and bogs.Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models
R.P. Daanen et al. Cryosphere (2011) 5(2):1021-1053. Climate change is detrimental to permafrost and related processes, from hydrological and ecological to societal. The authors present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modeled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections till 2075.Permafrost science and secondary education: Direct involvement of teachers and students in field research
A.E. Klene et al. Geomorphology (2002) 47(2-4):275-287. Permafrost and periglacial geomorphology are absent from the science curriculum in most secondary schools in the United States. This is an unfortunate situation given the recent increases in development and environmental concerns in northern latitudes and high-mountain areas, and the interesting examples of basic scientific principles found in the history of research on periglacial geomorphology and permafrost.Permafrost that lives up to its name
H. Hoag, Nature News, September 18, 2008. A 740,000-year-old wedge of ice discovered in central Yukon Territory, Canada, is the oldest known ice in North America. It suggests that permafrost has survived climates warmer than today's, according to a new study.Polar climate change may lead to ecological change
Science Daily, August 12, 2011. Ice and frozen ground at the North and South poles are affected by climate change-induced warming, but the consequences of thawing at each pole differ due to the geography and geology, according to a Penn State hydrologist.The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska
T.E. Osterkamp. Global and Planetary Change (2005) 49(3-4):187-202. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. This paper provides analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground, and permafrost surfaces.Reduction in areal extent of high-latitude wetlands in response to permafrost thaw
C.A. Avis et al. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(7):444-448. Wetlands take up and store carbon, and release carbon dioxide and methane through the decomposition of organic matter. More than 50% of wetlands are located in the high northern latitudes, where permafrost also prevails and exerts a strong control on wetland hydrology. Permafrost degradation is linked to changes in Arctic lakes. Here, the authors use a global climate model to examine the influence of permafrost thaw on the prevalence of high-latitude northern wetlands, under four emissions scenarios.Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic
A. Bring, G. Destouni. Ambio (2011) 40(4):361-369. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff.Reshaping Alaska: The effects of climate change
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," June 8, 2007. From melting permafrost, to dwindling sea ice, to shrinking glaciers, changes in the Alaskan environment are happening faster than was predicted. Scientists discuss what is taking place in Alaska and the Arctic, and how it is linked to climate change.Satellite remote sensing classification of thaw lakes and drained thaw lake basins on the North Slope of Alaska
R.C. Frohn et al. Remote Sensing of Environment (2005) 97(1):116-126. Continued research in the analysis of thaw lakes and drained thaw lake basins (DTLBs) is crucial to our understanding of the global carbon cycle, atmospheric methane concentrations, heat flow, and climate change.Scientist measures an overlooked greenhouse gas
NPR's "All Things Considered," September 10, 2007. As global temperatures rise, permafrost thaws. Ponds and lakes form in the depressions left behind by melting chunks of ice in the ground. In the bottoms of ponds and lakes, bacteria feed on the carbon that previously had been frozen underground and burp it out as methane. Scientist Katey Walter, who teaches at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, says that methane is being released from lakes in the far north—Alaska, Siberia, and elsewhere—at a far greater rate than anyone has estimated.Siberia losing lakes at alarming rate
NPR's "All Things Considered," June 2, 2005. A new study finds that more than 1,000 lakes in the Arctic region of Siberia have disappeared or shrunk dramatically over the past 30 years. The region has been getting markedly warmer. Human activities are thought to be partly responsible.Snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA)
SWIPA 2011 Executive Summary, AMAP. The SWIPA Assessment follows on from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), published in 2005. It aims to update the findings from ACIA and to provide more in-depth coverage of issues related to the Arctic cryosphere. (PDF 27.9 MB)Soil science: The Arctic carbon count
C. Beer. Nature Geoscience (2008) 1(9):569-570. Despite its potential importance in a warming world, the organic carbon content of Arctic soils has escaped robust quantification. A closer look at the North American sector suggests that much more carbon is stored in these high northern grounds than previously thought.Soil science: Arctic thaw
H.F. Jungkunst. Nature Geoscience (2010) 3(5):306-307. The organic matter stored in frozen Arctic soils could release significant quantities of carbon dioxide and methane on thawing. Now, laboratory experiments show that re-wetting of previously thawed permafrost could increase nitrous oxide production by 20-fold.A step-change in the date of sea-ice breakup in western Hudson Bay
J.B.T. Scott, G.J. Marshall. Arctic (2010) 63(2):155-164. Analysis using Canadian sea-ice charts from 1971 to 2008 shows that the change to earlier breakup is best represented by a 12-day step. This step occurs from 1988 to 1989 with no significant trend before or after the step. Although not as great as the three-week gradual change suggested by previous studies, this change is still significant.Storage and mineralization of carbon and nitrogen in soils of a frost-boil tundra ecosystem in Siberia
C. Kaiser et al. Applied Soil Ecology (2005) 29(2):173-183. This study examines the carbon and nitrogen stocks of soils and vegetation in different frost-boil tundra microsites (rims, troughs, and bare soil patches) and aims at elucidating differences in controls of organic matter turnover. Decomposition of organic material in rims is controlled mainly by N availability, while the main factor constraining decomposition in troughs may be unfavorable hydrothermal conditions. This may lead to differential responses of frost-boil tundra microsites to changing climatic conditions.Transient thermal effects in alpine permafrost
J. Noetzli, S. Gruber. The Cryosphere (2008) 2(2):185-224. This paper presents a systematic investigation of effects of climate variability and topography that are important for subsurface temperatures in Alpine permafrost areas. The effects of both past and projected future ground surface temperature variations on the thermal state of Alpine permafrost are studied based on numerical experimentation with simplified mountain topography.Understanding methane's seabed escape
Science Daily, September 20, 2011. A shipboard expedition off Norway, to determine how methane escapes from beneath the Arctic seabed, has discovered widespread pockets of the gas and numerous channels that allow it to reach the seafloor.Using radiocarbon to detect change in ecosystem carbon cycling in response to permafrost thawing
E.A.G. Schuur et al. Alaska Park Science (2007) 6(2):34-36. There are more than 450 billion tons of carbon frozen in permafrost in high-latitude ecosystems. This carbon is now subject to release into the atmosphere due to climate warming and permafrost thawing. Radiocarbon measurements of ecosystem carbon losses provide the means to measure whether old carbon is released in response to permafrost thawing.Variability in greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost thaw ponds
I. Laurion et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2010) 55(1):115-133. Arctic climate change is leading to accelerated melting of permafrost and the mobilization of soil organic carbon pools that have accumulated over thousands of years. The results of this study underscore the increasingly important contribution of permafrost thaw ponds to greenhouse gas emissions and the need to account for local and regional variability in their limnological properties for global estimates.Washing away the Arctic coastline
NPR's "The Picture Show," April 19, 2011. Two-thirds of the Arctic coastline is made of permafrost—an environment that is very sensitive to warming temperatures. A new report says erosion is causing these coastline regions to recede by an average of 1.5 feet per year.Water and heat transport in boreal soils: Implications for soil response to climate change
Z. Fan et al. Science of the Total Environment (2011) 409(10):1836-1842. Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes.Oceanic and Atmospheric Circulation
Amplified acidification of the Arctic Ocean
J.C. Orr et al. Earth and Environmental Science (2009). Climate change will be amplified in the Arctic, leading to reduced sea-ice cover, warming and freshening of surface waters, and changes in vertical stratification. The Arctic Ocean is also undergoing acidification as is the rest of the ocean.Ann Daniels and Phil Coates to test Arctic waters
BBC News, March 1, 2011. British explorers Ann Daniels and Phil Coates will be braving temperatures as low as -75C on a 60-day Arctic trek testing whether changes in sea temperatures affect ocean currents.Anomalous conditions in the south-eastern Bering Sea 1997: Linkages among climate, weather, ocean, and biology
J.M. Napp, G.L. Hunt, Jr. Fisheries Oceanography (2001) 10(1):61-68. In 1997, the Bering Sea ecosystem, a productive, high-latitude marginal sea, demonstrated that it responds on very short time scales to atmospheric anomalies. That year, a combination of atmospheric mechanisms produced notable summer weather anomalies over the eastern Bering Sea.Aquarius yields NASA's first global map of ocean salinity
Science Daily, September 23, 2011. Aquarius is making NASA's first space observations of ocean surface salinity variations—a key component of Earth's climate. Salinity changes are linked to the cycling of freshwater around the planet and influence ocean circulation.Arctic amplification
N. Lubick. Geotimes (2006). The northern latitudes amplify shifts in temperature, ocean circulation, precipitation, and evaporation that occur elsewhere on the planet, making the region a kind of early warning system for global climate change.The Arctic amplification debate
M. Serreze, J.A. Francis. Climatic Change (2006) 76(3-4):241-264. Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warming, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident.The Arctic and climate change
Brochure published by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.Arctic climate: Past and present
Chapter 2 (pages 21-60) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. The sensitivities of snow and ice regimes to small temperature increases and of cold oceans to small changes in salinity are processes that could contribute to unusually large and rapid climate change in the Arctic. (PDF 3.24 MB)Arctic climate change: Observed and modeled temperature and sea-ice variability
O.M. Johannessen. Tellus: Series A (2004) 56(4):328-341. Changes apparent in the arctic climate system in recent years require evaluation in a century-scale perspective in order to assess the Arctic's response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, a new set of century- and multidecadal-scale observational data is used in order to better determine and understand arctic climate variability.Arctic climate change and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic
C.H. Greene et al. Ecology (2008) 89(11):S24-S38. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic.Arctic climate change as manifest in cyclone behavior
I. Simmonds et al. Journal of Climate (2008) 21(22):5777-5796. The Arctic region has exhibited dramatic changes in recent times. Many of these are intimately tied up with synoptic activity, but little research has been undertaken on how the characteristics of Arctic cyclones have changed.Arctic climate feedbacks: Global implications
Report by WWF International Arctic Programme, Second Edition, November 2009. In addition to the regional consequences of arctic climate change are its global impacts. Acting as the Northern Hemisphere's refrigerator, a frozen Arctic plays a central role in regulating Earth's climate system. A number of critical arctic climate feedbacks affect the global climate system, and many of these are now being altered in a rapidly warming Arctic. (PDF 10.83 MB)Arctic climate may be more sensitive to warming than thought, says new study
ScienceDaily, June 30, 2010. A new study shows the Arctic climate system may be more sensitive to greenhouse warming than previously thought, and that current levels of Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide may be high enough to bring about significant, irreversible shifts in Arctic ecosystems.The Arctic climate system
M.C. Serreze, R.G. Barry, Cambridge University Press, 2005, 402 pages. The Arctic can be viewed as an integrated system, characterized by intimate couplings between its atmosphere, ocean and land, linked in turn to the larger global system. This comprehensive, up-to-date assessment begins with an outline of early Arctic exploration and the growth of modern research, followed by an overview of the Arctic's basic physical characteristics and climatic features.Arctic cyclogenesis at the marginal ice zone: A contributory mechanism for the temperature amplification?
J. Inoue, M.E. Hori. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047696. Rapid sea-ice retreat over the Arctic Ocean has a leading role in Arctic amplification. The sea-ice extent dramatically recovers during every freezing season, so despite the recent summer sea-ice retreat there must be extraordinary heat exchange between the lower atmosphere and upper ocean. However, the underlying mechanisms for this remain uncertain. Here the authors show that autumn frontal cyclogenesis is a crucial event in the Arctic air-sea coupled system.The Arctic: 'First and worst'
CBC News, October 12, 1989. The Arctic is getting warmer. Temperatures in the permafrost have risen two degrees since the 1940s, according to this 1989 CBC-TV clip. Many scientists say global warming will affect the Arctic "first and worst" and believe a warmer Arctic could spell trouble for the whole planet. In this clip, experts explain why.Arctic freshwater pouring into Atlantic, scientists say
NPR's "All Things Considered," August 24, 2006. For close to half a century, the flow from Arctic rivers and from rainfall has increased dramatically. There's also more freshwater coming from sea ice in the Arctic Ocean that's been rapidly melting, and there's yet more freshwater coming from melting glaciers. Scientists are worried that the Atlantic currents that influence land climate could suddenly change as a result.Arctic haze
This video clip from 1990, made available by Teachers' Domain, describes how the long-range transport of particles around the globe brings pollution to the Arctic and how Arctic haze may be contributing to climate change.The Arctic in an earth system context: From brake to accelerator of change
W. Steffen. Ambio (2006) 35(4):153-159. Human activities over the past few centuries have profoundly changed the functioning of the earth system as a whole. These changes are particularly evident in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and can lead to two important feedback processes: the ice-albedo feedback and the terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedback. These processes play an exceptionally important role in earth system functioning, particularly because they may switch this century from damping the effects of anthropogenic climate change to accelerating them.Arctic Ocean feels the heat
N. Jones, Nature News, January 27, 2011. Water flowing into the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean is about 2°C warmer today than it has been for at least 2,000 years.Arctic Ocean freshwater will cause 'unpredictable changes on climate'
F. Harvey, guardian.co.uk, April 5, 2011. Ice cap meltwater and river run-off could have significant impact on the climates of Europe and North America, say scientists.Arctic Ocean full up with carbon dioxide
H. Hoag, Nature News, July 22, 2010. Loss of sea ice is unlikely to enable Arctic waters to mop up more carbon dioxide from the air.Arctic Oscillation chills North America, warms Arctic
NASA Earth Observatory (2011). The AO is a pattern of differences in air pressure between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. When the AO is in "positive" phase, air pressure over the Arctic is low, pressure over the mid-latitudes is high, and prevailing winds confine extremely cold air to the Arctic. But when the AO is in "negative" phase, the pressure gradient weakens. The air pressure over the Arctic is not quite so low, and air pressure at mid-latitudes is not as high. In this negative phase, the AO enables Arctic air to slide south and warm air to slip north.Arctic paleoclimate synthesis thematic papers
J.J. Fitzpatrick et al. Quaternary Science Reviews (2010) 29(15-16):1674-1678. This issue of QSR contains five papers that were originally written as the technical chapters for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 1.2, Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes. The thematic papers here reintroduce the technical language of climate change and update the original SAP content with more recent information derived from literature published after the report was finalized for publication in 2008.Arctic Report Card
An international team of research scientists has created this peer-reviewed website which tracks multiple changes in the arctic environment. The Report Card is organized by NOAA and will be updated annually.Arctic water flow speeding up
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, April 6, 2006. One of Siberia's largest rivers is dumping about 10% more fresh water into the Arctic today than it was some 60 years ago, thanks to the complex effects of increased snowfall, melting permafrost, and changing weather.Assessing the sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation to freshwater perturbation in various glacial climate states
C.J. Van Meerbeeck et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 37(9-10):1909-1927. A striking characteristic of glacial climate in the North Atlantic region is the recurrence of abrupt shifts between cold stadials and mild interstadials. These shifts have been associated with abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mode, possibly in response to glacial meltwater perturbations. The results of the present study imply that a more northern location of deep convection sites during milder glacial times may have amplified frequency and amplitude of abrupt climate shifts.Assessment of potential transport of pollutants into the Barents Sea via sea ice—an observational approach
R. Korsnes et al. Marine Pollution Bulletin (2002) 44(9):861-869. A significant part of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has its origin in the Kara Sea and melts in the Greenland and Barents seas. Consequently there may be a particular risk of pollutants in the Kara Sea entering the food webs of the Greenland and Barents seas.Atmospheric inversion strength over polar oceans in winter regulated by sea ice
T.M. Pavelsky et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 36(5-6):945-955. Correlation of inversion strength with mean annual sea ice concentration, likely a surrogate for the effective thermal conductivity of the wintertime ice pack, yields strong, linear relationships in the Arctic (r = 0.88) and Antarctic (r = 0.86).Baltic Sea contributes carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, study shows
Science Daily, October 10, 2011. The Baltic Sea emits more carbon dioxide than it can bind. Local variations have increased the exposure of the Bay of Bothnia. These are the results from a study of how carbon dioxide flows between the water of the Baltic Sea and the atmosphere, carried out by scientists at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden.The boundary layer response to recent Arctic sea ice loss and implications for high-latitude climate feedbacks
J.E. Kay et al. Journal of Climate (2011) 24(2):428-447. This study documents and evaluates the boundary layer and energy budget response to record low 2007 sea ice extents in the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) using 1-day observationally constrained forecasts and 10-year runs with a freely evolving atmosphere.Britain's hot spring could be result of shrinking Arctic
R. McKie, guardian.co.uk, June 5, 2011. Melting sea ice could be influencing the movement of jet streams that might normally move high pressure away from UK.The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification
J.A. Screen, I. Simmonds. Nature (2010) 464(7293):1334-1337. This study concludes that diminishing sea ice has had a leading role in recent Arctic temperature amplification. The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive ice-temperature feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea ice loss, which will probably affect polar ecosystems, ice-sheet mass balance, and human activities in the Arctic.A century of climate change for Fairbanks, Alaska
G. Wendler, M. Shulski. Arctic (2009) 62(3):295-300. The climate of Fairbanks was analyzed for a century ending in 2006. The temperature has increased by 1.4°C, almost twice the global increase, which is expected as a result of the polar amplification in temperature change.Challenges of climate change: An Arctic perspective
R.W. Corell. Ambio (2006) 35(4):148-152. Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences.Changes at poles drive global warming
PBS NewsHour Science Report, February 23, 2007. Over the past several decades, temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the rate of average global temperatures. Meanwhile, sea and land ice in the Arctic and parts of Antarctica have been shrinking at a surprising and ever-growing rate, and permafrost is thawing across the Arctic. These and other changes pose an obvious threat to the polar regions. But, climate scientists say, they also signal changes to come around the globe.Changes in Alaska's environmental drivers: Realities and uncertainties
Lecture #9 in U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service's Climate Change Lecture Series, presented January 19, 2010, by John Walsh, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks.Changes in the Arctic: Consequences for the world
M. Bettwy. This online essay was published January 24, 2005, by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Significant changes in the Arctic environment, especially those over the past decade, can lead to dramatic swings in weather and climate patterns across the rest of the globe, with potentially far-reaching consequences for ecosystems and human populations.Changing climate means changing oceans
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," January 21, 2011. Scientists who study the oceans say the effects of climate change are already being seen in the world's oceans. From acidification and warming temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice loss, Ira Flatow and guests look at how the oceans are changing with changes in climate.The changing climate of the Arctic
D.G. Barber et al. Arctic (2008) 61(Suppl 1):7-26. Evidence is now accumulating that the Arctic is warming, and responses are being observed across physical, biological, and social systems.Characteristics of the Beaufort Sea high
M.C. Serreze, A.P. Barrett. Journal of Climate (2011) 24(1):159-182. Characteristics of the Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Sea high are examined using fields from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis.Climate change considerations
Chapter 4 of An Evaluation of the Science Needs to Inform Decisions on Outer Continental Shelf Energy Development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska, L. Holland-Bartels, B. Pierce (eds.), Circular 1370, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 2011.Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe: A model study
L. Hole, M. Engardt. Ambio (2008) 37(1):9-17. A high-resolution chemical transport model, driven by meteorology representing current and future climate, was used to investigate the effects of possible future changes in climate on nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe.Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay region: An intermodel comparison
A.S. Gagnon, W.A. Gough. Climatic Change (2005) 69(2-3):269-297. This study compares the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. The analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution.Climate change scenarios for the Nordic countries
T. Jóhannesson et al. Climate Research (1995) 5:181-195. A climate change scenario for the Nordic countries has been defined for application in hydrological models in the Nordic research project 'Climate Change and Energy Production.' The scenario is based on a subjective evaluation of several recent results from global coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation models (GCMs) and on a statistical downscaling of the model results.The climate of Alaska
M. Shulski, G. Wendler. Alaska Climate Research Center, 2007. This 216-page book provides an updated climatology of Alaska, illustrating the diverse range and unique climate features of the 49th state. It contains a narrative discussion along with full-color photos, maps, tables and charts for various climatological parameters. The concepts are clearly presented and easily understood by nonspecialists.Clouds, storms, and global climate
W.R. Cotton. International Geophysics (2011) 99:753-767. Chapter 12 of a special volume titled Storm and Cloud Dynamics.Cold winters from warm oceans
W.R. Boos. Nature (2011) 471(7340):584-586. Winters are colder in northeastern North America and Asia than in other regions at the same latitude. Previous explanations may be incomplete, having overlooked the radiation of atmospheric wave energy.Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions
J. Turner, J. Overland. Polar Research (2009) 28(2):146-164. The two polar regions have experienced remarkably different climatic changes in recent decades. The Arctic has seen a marked reduction in sea-ice extent throughout the year, with a peak during the autumn. In contrast, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased, with the greatest growth being in the autumn.Cryosphere: Warmth from the deep
E. Carmack, H. Melling. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(1):7-8. Unusual wind patterns and the albedo feedback effect played crucial roles in the rapid reduction of Arctic sea-ice cover in recent years. Evidence is now building that a warmer ocean has also contributed to the thinning of Arctic ice.Cryosphere and hydrology
Chapter 6 (pages 183-242) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Earlier breakup and later freeze-up have combined to lengthen the ice-free season of rivers and lakes by up to three weeks since the early 1900s throughout much of the Arctic. It is likely that low-frequency variations in the atmosphere and ocean have played at least some role in forcing the cryospheric and hydrological trends of the past few decades. (PDF 5.23 MB)Current understanding of Antarctic climate change
Online fact sheet published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, October 2007. At a time of dramatic warming and rapid sea ice decline in the Arctic, Antarctica has cooled slightly and sea ice has increased around it. Recent scientific progress in understanding how two distinct processes affect Antarctic climate reconciles these seemingly contradictory trends at the Earth's poles.Deep oceans can mask global warming for decade-long periods
Science Daily, September 19, 2011. The planet's deep oceans at times may absorb enough heat to flatten the rate of global warming for periods of as long as a decade even in the midst of longer-term warming, according to a new analysis led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).Detailed assessment of climate variability in the Baltic Sea area for the period 1958 to 2009
A. Lehmann et al. Climate Research (2011) 46(2)185-196. A detailed study of climate variability and the associated impact on the Baltic Sea area for the period 1958 to 2009 revealed that the recent changes in the warming trend are associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic.Development and testing of Polar WRF. Part III: Arctic land
K.M. Hines et al. Journal of Climate (2011) 24(1):26-48. A version of the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been developed for use in polar climates. The model known as "Polar WRF" is tested for land areas with a western Arctic grid that has 25-km resolution. This work serves as preparation for the high-resolution Arctic System Reanalysis of the years 2000-2010.Effects of a melted Greenland ice sheet on climate, vegetation, and the cryosphere
D.J. Lunt et al. Climate Dynamics (2002) 23(7-8):679-694. Using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), the authors investigate the effects of the removal of the Greenland ice sheet on atmospheric temperatures, circulation, and precipitation.Effects of ocean acidification, warming and melting of sea ice on aragonite saturation of the Canada Basin surface water
M. Yamamoto-Kawai et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2010GL045501. In 2008, surface waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean were found to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite. This is associated with recent extensive melting of sea ice in this region, as well as elevated sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification
M.C. Serreze et al. The Cryosphere (2008) 2(4):601-622. Rises in surface and lower troposphere air temperatures through the 21st century are projected to be especially pronounced over the Arctic Ocean during the cold season. This Arctic amplification is largely driven by loss of the sea ice cover, allowing for strong heat transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere.Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming
E.S. Euskirchen et al. Global Change Biology (2007) 13(11):2425-2438. The warming associated with changes in snow cover in northern high-latitude terrestrial regions represents an important energy feedback to the climate system. Here, the authors simulate snow cover–climate feedbacks (i.e., changes in snow cover on atmospheric heating) across the pan-arctic over two distinct warming periods during the 20th century, 1910-1940 and 1970-2000.Enhanced modern heat transfer to the Arctic by warm Atlantic water
R.F. Spielhagen et al. Science (2011) 331(6016):450-453. The authors present a multidecadal-scale record of ocean temperature variations during the past 2000 years, derived from marine sediments off Western Svalbard (79°N). They find that early-21st-century temperatures of Atlantic water entering the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic amplification of global warming.Export of Pacific carbon through the Arctic Archipelago to the North Atlantic
E.H. Shadwick et al. Continental Shelf Research (2011) 31(7-8):806-816. The eastward transport of carbon from the Pacific, via the Arctic Archipelago, to the North Atlantic is estimated, and the impact of increased export of sea-ice melt water to the North Atlantic is discussed.Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008
I. Simmonds, K. Keay. Geophysical Research Letters (2009) doi:10.1029/2009GL039810. The analysis reveals that the trends and variability in September ice coverage and mean cyclone characteristics are related, and that the strength (rather than the number) of cyclones in the Arctic basin is playing a central role in the changes observed in that region, especially in the past few years.Extreme 2010 Russian fires and Pakistan floods linked meteorologically, study suggests
Science Daily, September 1, 2011. Two of the most destructive natural disasters of 2010 were closely linked by a single meteorological event, even though they occurred 1,500 miles (2,414 km) apart and were of completely different natures, a new NASA study suggests.Flights over Arctic provide data for investigating ozone hole depletion
Science Daily, April 6, 2010. An international team of researchers is investigating ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere using data gathered during flights over the Arctic region at elevations of up to 20 kilometers.Fourth quarter in the Arctic
M. Sever. Geotimes (2008). The Pacific Ocean is carrying more heat through Arctic seas into the Arctic Ocean, potentially peeling back the ice at the surface as warmer waters lap at the edges of the ice.Future climate change: Modeling and scenarios
Chapter 4 (pages 99-150) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are widely acknowledged to be the primary tool for projecting future climate. As understanding of the earth's climate system increases and computers become more sophisticated, the scope of processes and feedbacks simulated by AOGCMs is steadily increasing. In addition to representing the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean, AOGCMs include interactive components representing the land surface and cryosphere. (PDF 4.89 MB)Global warming could cool down northern temperatures in winter
ScienceDaily, November 17, 2010. The overall warming of Earth's northern half could result in cold winters, new research shows. The shrinking of sea ice in the eastern Arctic causes some regional heating of the lower levels of air, which may lead to strong anomalies in atmospheric airstreams, triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents.Global warming increases acidity in Alaska seas
Y. Rosen, Alaska Dispatch, December 6, 2009. Ocean acidification is often called the twin of climate change. Just as increased carbon in the atmosphere triggers effects that change the climate, increased carbon in the atmosphere, when absorbed by the oceans, triggers acidification in the water. The very characteristics that help make Alaskan waters so rich—the cold temperatures that hold more carbon and shallow waters saturated with nutrients—also make them more susceptible to acidification, experts say.The great ice mystery
J. Copley. Nature (2000) 408:634-636. Changes in the extent and thickness of sea ice could alter ocean circulation and thus disrupt the climate.The Greenland Sea Jet: A mechanism for wind-driven sea ice export through Fram Strait
J.H. van Angelen et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047837. The authors present a mechanism for wind-driven sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait for the period 1979-2007, using the output of a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model.Hydrographic changes in Nares Strait (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) in recent decades based on delta 18O profiles of bivalve shells
M.E. Torres et al. Arctic (2011) 64(1):45-58. Nares Strait is one of three main passages of the Canadian Archipelago that channel relatively fresh seawater from the Arctic Ocean through Baffin Bay to the Labrador Sea. The northern end of Nares Strait has been experiencing an increase in freshwater runoff since the mid 1980s, which may reflect changes in circulation and ice formation.Ice age carbon mystery: Rising carbon dioxide levels not tied to Pacific Ocean, as had been suspected
Science Daily, October 4, 2011. A new study by a University of Michigan paleoclimatologist and two colleagues suggests that the deep ocean was not an important source of carbon during glacial times. The finding will force researchers to reassess their ideas about the fundamental mechanisms that regulate atmospheric carbon dioxide over long time scales.Ice, ocean, and eddies: An Arctic perspective on climate change
Video presented by Robert Pinkel, PhD, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, as part of the 2008 series "Perspectives on Ocean Science." Dr. Pinkel provides a window into the cold world of Arctic oceanography and illustrates how the interplay between sea ice and ocean circulation impacts Earth's climate. (51:16)Impact of fjord dynamics and glacial runoff on the circulation near Helheim Glacier
F. Straneo. Nature Geoscience (2011) 4(5):322-327. Submarine melting is an important contributor to the mass balance of tidewater glaciers in Greenland, and has been suggested as a trigger for their widespread acceleration. Here, the authors use oceanographic data collected in August 2009 and March 2010 at the margins of Helheim Glacier, Greenland, to show that the melting circulation is affected by seasonal runoff from the glacier and by the fjord's externally forced currents and stratification.Impacts of the oceans on climate change
P.C. Reid et al. Chapter 1, Advances in Marine Biology (2009) 56:1-150. The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralizing) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change.An initial estimate of the cost of lost climate regulation services due to changes in the Arctic cryosphere
Oceans North report, February 2010. This paper provides initial estimates of only one of the ecosystem services provided by the northern cryosphere, global climate regulation. It serves as a scoping exercise pointing to additional work that needs to be carried out.Integrated analysis of physical and biological pan-arctic change
J.E. Overland et al. Climatic Change (2004) 63(3):291-322. This study investigates the recent large changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period of 1965-1995 through examination of 86 regionally dispersed time series representing seven data types: climate indices, atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, sea ice, fisheries, and other biological data.Integrated regional changes in Arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system
A.D. McGuire et al. Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2006) 31:61-91. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system.Is mild winter a sign of climate change?
NPR's "Weekend Edition Sunday," January 7, 2007. John Ydstie speaks to Robert Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research about the unseasonably warm weather and what might be behind it.Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice
J.E. Overland, M. Wang. Tellus A (2009) 62(1):1-9. Recent loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic is directly connected to shifts in northern wind patterns in the following autumn, which has the potential of altering the heat budget at the cold end of the global heat engine.Long-term air quality monitoring in Denali National Park and Preserve
A. Blakesley. Alaska Park Science (2007) 6(2):18-21. While Denali's air quality is consistently among the cleanest recorded in the nationwide monitoring networks, small amounts of international airborne contaminants are measured in the park each year. With global pollution projected to increase over time, Denali's clean air is dependent on international as well as national efforts to limit emission increases.Low Arctic winter ice; Polar region experiences ozone loss
Yale Environment 360, March 24, 2011. This year's maximum extent of winter sea ice tied for the lowest maximum ever measured, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado. Meanwhile, scientists report that protective ozone in the upper layers of the Arctic atmosphere has been reduced by about half this year and that the Arctic, for the first time in recorded history, may experience an ozone hole similar to the one over the Antarctic.The marine ecosystem of Kongsfjorden, Svalbard
H. Hop et al. Polar Research (2002) 21(1):167-208. Kongsfjorden is particularly suitable as a site for exploring the impacts of possible climate changes, with Atlantic water influx and melting of tidal glaciers both being linked to climate variability. The pelagic ecosystem is likely to be most sensitive to the Atlantic versus Arctic influence, whereas the benthic ecosystem is more affected by long-term changes in hydrography as well as changes in glacial runoff and sedimentation.Marine systems
Chapter 9 (pages 453-538) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. Arctic marine systems are unique with their high proportion of continental shelves and shallow water, dramatic seasonality and overall low level of sunlight, extremely low water temperatures, presence of extensive areas of multi-year and seasonal sea-ice cover, and strong influence from freshwater coming from rivers and ice melt. Such factors represent harsh conditions for many types of marine life. (PDF 4.00 MB)Modeling ocean circulation in the age of supercomputers
Video of a 2011 lecture by Paola Cessi, Professor of Oceanography, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, as part of the series "Perspectives on Ocean Science." (56:44 min)More extreme weather in the Arctic regions
ScienceDaily, February 5, 2009. A new study published in Climate Dynamics by Erik Kolstad and Thomas J. Bracegirdle reveals that one of the most visible signs of climate change is the dramatically reduced ice cover in the Arctic. The retreat of the sea ice leads to rapid changes in the weather conditions in these areas.NOAA's new chief on restoring science to U.S. climate policy
E. Kolbert. Yale Environment 360 (2009). Marine biologist Jane Lubchenco now heads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, conducted by New Yorker writer Elizabeth Kolbert, Lubchenco speaks about the science of climate change, the complexities of communicating it to policy makers, and what she refers to as global warming's "equally evil twin," ocean acidification. This online article includes an audio link to the full interview (44 minutes).North Atlantic cold-water sink returns to life
Q. Schiermeier, Nature News, November 29, 2008. Scientists have found evidence that convective mixing in the North Atlantic, a mechanism that fuels ocean circulation and affects Earth's climate, has returned after a decade of near stagnation, thanks, perhaps, to a dramatic loss of sea-ice in the Arctic during the summer of 2007.North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change
E. Di Lorenzo et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2008) doi:10.1029/2007GL032838. The authors define a new pattern of climate change, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and show that its variability is significantly correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity, nutrients, and chlorophyll.Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment
M.C. Serreze et al. Climatic Change (2000) 46(1-2):159-207. Studies from a variety of disciplines document recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Prompted by predictions of an amplified response of the Arctic to enhanced greenhouse forcing, the authors present a synthesis of these observations.Observational studies of Arctic Ocean ice-atmosphere interactions
R.G. Barry, J.R. Key. Polar Geography and Geology (1994) 18(1):1-14. Effects on the summer ice conditions of the snow melt regime on sea ice and of synoptic-scale circulation variability forcing variations in ice concentration are described.Ocean circulations, heat budgets, and future commitment to climate change
D.W. Pierce et al. Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2011) DOI:10.1146/annurev-environ-022610-112928. Committed climate change arises due to the large thermal inertia of the oceans and their consequent time lag in adjusting to altered GHG concentrations. This work describes the basic heat balance of the oceans, the physical reasons for the long time lag in ocean temperature and sea-level rise, and the observational evidence for human-induced ocean warming over the past 50 years.Ocean probes to help refine climate change forecasting
Science Daily, August 6, 2011. Though estimates regarding the effect of carbon in the ocean already exist, hard data can help climatologists create more accurate predictions of how carbon will impact global warming.On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate
L.M. Beal et al. Nature (2011) 472(7344):429-436. The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it.The polar ice conundrum
This is a page from Paul Hudson's Weather & Climate Blog. Hudson is a climate correpondent for BBC who reports on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.Precipitation shifts over western North America as a result of declining Arctic sea ice cover: The coupled system response
J.O. Sewall. Earth Interactions (2005) 9(26):1-23. As future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover take place, there will be a substantial impact on water resources in western North America.Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models
B. Franco et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 36(9-10):1897-1918. The atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970-1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR).Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis
M.C. Serreze, R.G. Barry. Global and Planetary Change (2011) 77(1-2):85-96. The authors provide a synthesis of research on Arctic amplification, starting with a historical context and then addressing recent insights into processes and key impacts, based on analysis of the instrumental record, modeling studies, and paleoclimate reconstructions.Rapid melting of Arctic sea ice possibly explained
CBC News, June 28, 2011. As multi-year ice declines throughout the Arctic, more of the saltier meltwater from younger ice is mixing into the ocean. That colder, denser water sinks more quickly and forces less dense water from deeper in the ocean up to the surface. Because fresh meltwater is colder than seawater, that means relatively warm water is being forced upwards.Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data
R.W. MacDonald et al. Science of the Total Environment (2005) 342(1-3):5-86. The Arctic has undergone dramatic change during the past decade. The observed changes include atmospheric sea-level pressure, wind fields, sea-ice drift, ice cover, length of melt season, change in precipitation patterns, change in hydrology, and change in ocean currents and watermass distribution. It is likely that these primary changes have altered the carbon cycle and biological systems.Recent environmental changes in the Arctic: A review
J. Morison et al. Arctic (2000) 53(4):359-371. Numerous recent observations indicate that the Arctic is undergoing a significant change. In the last decade, the hydrography of the Arctic Ocean has shifted, and the atmospheric circulation has undergone a change from the lower stratosphere to the surface.Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system
X. Zhang et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2008) doi:10.1029/2008GL035607. Arctic climate system change has accelerated tremendously since the beginning of this century, and a strikingly extreme sea-ice loss occurred in summer 2007. However, the greenhouse-gas-emissions forcing has only increased gradually, and the driving role in Arctic climate change of the positively polarized Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) trend has substantially weakened.Recent wind-driven high sea ice export in the Fram Strait contributes to Arctic sea ice decline
L.H. Smedsrud et al. Cryosphere (2011) 5(3):1311-1334. Arctic sea ice area decrease has been visible for two decades, and continues at a steady rate. Apart from melting, the southward drift through Fram Strait is the main loss. The authors present high-resolution sea ice drift across 79° N from 2004 to 2010. The ice drift is based on radar satellite data and corresponds well with variability in local geostrophic wind.The relationships between Arctic sea ice and cloud-related variables in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and CCSM3
J. Cuzzone, S. Vavrus. Environmental Research Letters (2011) 6(1):014016. This study uses reanalysis data from ECMWF ERA-Interim and GCM output from the CCSM3 to investigate how sea ice and clouds interact locally (within individual grid boxes) and whether similar variability between the two datasets is captured.Reshaping Alaska: The effects of climate change
NPR's "Talk of the Nation," June 8, 2007. From melting permafrost, to dwindling sea ice, to shrinking glaciers, changes in the Alaskan environment are happening faster than was predicted. Scientists discuss what is taking place in Alaska and the Arctic, and how it is linked to climate change.The response and role of ice cover in lake-climate interactions
L.C. Brown, C.R. Duguay. Progress in Physical Geography (2010) 34(5):671-704. Lake ice phenology trends have typically been associated with variations in air temperatures, while ice thickness trends tend to be associated more to changes in snow cover. The role of ice cover in the regional climate is less documented, and with longer ice-free seasons possible as a result of changing climate conditions, especially at higher latitudes, the effects of lakes on their surrounding climate can be expected to become more prominent.Rising Arctic Ocean temperatures cause gas hydrate destabilization and ocean acidification
A. Biastoch et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2011GL047222. Vast amounts of methane hydrates are potentially stored in sediments along the continental margins, owing their stability to low temperature–high pressure conditions. Global warming could destabilize these hydrates and cause a release of methane (CH4) into the water column and possibly the atmosphere.Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review
D. Budikova. Global and Planetary Change (2009) 68:149-163. The principal purpose of this review is to synthesize the published efforts that document the potential impact of Arctic sea ice on remote climates.Role of synoptic eddy feedback on polar climate responses to the anthropogenic forcing
J-S Kug et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2010) doi:10.1029/2010GL043673. The authors find that a poleward shift of the westerly jet stream and associated synoptic eddy feedback play a critical role in enhancing polar warming and moistening.The role of terrestrial snow cover in the climate system
S. Vavrus. Climate Dynamics (2006) 29(1):73-88. Snow cover is known to exert a strong influence on climate, but quantifying its impact is difficult. This study investigates the global impact of terrestrial snow cover through a pair of general circulation model (GCM) simulations.Scientists blame dramatic weather on weakening 'Arctic fence'
PRI's "Here & Now," February 3, 2011. Many parts of Europe and the U.S. have seen unusual snowstorms and frigid temperatures for two years in a row. But places like northern Canada and Greenland have seen temperatures that in some months are running 15 to 20 degrees above average. The reason, some researchers say, is a weakening "vortex," a kind of atmospheric fence, that normally keeps cold air up north and warmer air south. PRI speaks with Justin Gillis, who covers climate issues for the New York Times.Scientists working off Cornwall gather Arctic data
BBC News, June 28, 2011. The Catlin Arctic Survey 2011 collated measurements during an eight-week expedition from March to May. Scientists measured changes that they say may impact the way warm and cold water is circulated around the globe.Sea ice response to an extreme negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during winter 2009/2010
J.C. Stroeve et al. Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38:doi:10.1029/2010GL045662. Based on relationships established in previous studies, the extreme negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) that characterized winter of 2009/2010 should have favored retention of Arctic sea ice through the 2010 summer melt season. The September 2010 sea ice extent nevertheless ended up as third lowest in the satellite record, behind 2007 and barely above 2008, reinforcing the long-term downward trend.Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf
F.J. Mueter, M.A. Litzow. Ecological Applications (2008) 18(2):309-320. Seasonal ice cover creates a pool of cold bottom water on the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf each winter. The southern edge of this cold pool, which defines the ecotone between Arctic and subarctic communities, has retreated approximately 230 kilometers northward since the early 1980s.Seasonal variability of the inorganic carbon system in the Amundsen Gulf region of the southeastern Beaufort Sea
E.H. Shadwick et al. Limnology and Oceanography (2011) 56(1):303-322. During a year-round occupation of Amundsen Gulf in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, total alkalinity, partial pressure of CO2, and related parameters were measured over a full annual cycle.Sea-surface temperature in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait in relation to air temperature and ice cover breakup, 1985-2009
P.S. Galbraith, P. Larouche. Journal of Marine Systems (2011) 87(1):266-278. Sea-surface weekly average temperatures derived from NOAA-AVHRR remote sensing data are analyzed for the period 1985-2009 for Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait, and compared to weekly ice cover data obtained from the Canadian Ice Service for the period 1971-2009 as well as to monthly average air temperature at four stations around Hudson Bay and to four around Hudson Strait.Secondary production in the oceans and the response to climate change
M. Heath et al. Global Change Newsletter (2001) 47:9-12. Trends over the past 50 years in the ocean climate of the North Atlantic (convective depth, poleward heat transport, overflow from the Nordic Seas) are now well documented. Some of these are correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index. What is the impact of these large scale, low frequency climatic changes on the living resources of the North Atlantic?Sensitivity of Hudson Bay sea ice and ocean climate to atmospheric temperature forcing
S. Joly et al. Climate Dynamics (2011) 36(9-10):1835-1849. A regional sea-ice-ocean model was used to investigate the response of sea ice and oceanic heat storage in the Hudson Bay system to a climate-warming scenario. The model indicates that the greatest changes in both sea-ice climate and heat content would occur in southeastern Hudson Bay, James Bay, and Hudson Strait.A seven-year study of oxygen isotopes in daily precipitation at a site close to the Arctic Circle, Tustervatn, Norway: Trajectory analysis and links with the North Atlantic Oscillation
W.H. Theakstone. Atmospheric Environment (2011) 45(29):5101-5109. Daily precipitation values were recorded through a 7-year period at Tustervatn, Norway, close to the Arctic Circle. Seasonal variations were superimposed on an overall rising trend. Cluster analysis of air mass trajectories revealed five principal moisture source areas and transport routes to Tustervatn.Sinking export of particulate organic material from the euphotic zone in the eastern Beaufort Sea
T. Juul-Pedersen et al. Marine Ecology Progress Series (2010) 410:55-70. This paper presents an extensive spatial and temporal study of the sinking export of particulate organic material below the euphotic zone in the eastern Beaufort Sea. Free-drifting short-term particle interceptor traps were deployed, generally at 50 m, during fall 2002 and 2003, and summer 2004.Smallest algae thrive as the Arctic Ocean freshens
W.K. Li et al. Science (2009) 326(5952):539. As climate changes and the upper Arctic Ocean receives more heat and fresh water, it becomes more difficult for mixing processes to deliver nutrients from depth to the surface for phytoplankton growth.Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century
J. Boé et al. Climatic Change (2010) 99(3-4):637-645. This study shows that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter.Thermal evolution of diffusive transport of atmospheric halocarbons through artificial sea-ice
M.D. Shaw et al. Atmospheric Environment (2011) 45(35):6393-6402. Diffusion through brine channels in sea-ice is a potential pathway for trace gases produced under and within sea-ice to exchange with the overlying atmosphere. The effectiveness of this transport pathway is highly dependent on temperature and sea-ice thickness, both of which are changing in favor of increased gas diffusion through porous sea-ice.Time to spend more money preparing for colder winters?
P. Eden, BBC News, December 20, 2010. The last three winters have appeared to be cold and snowy only in comparison with the relatively mild and snow-free winters of the last two decades. Were we able to pick them up and transplant them into, say, the 1940s or 1950s or 1960s they would not have looked out of place at all.Trouble in polar paradise
J. Smith et al. Science (2002) 297(5586). This special issue of Science examines how the polar regions have fared in recent decades and how they may be transformed in a future, warmer world. At the center of global-change research is how the dynamic behavior of the atmosphere and the oceans contributes to the weather patterns that have affected much of the world since the late 20th century.Unlocking the secrets of the Arctic's melting ice
BBC News, May 27, 2011. A scientist hopes that a better understanding of what is happening beneath the Arctic ice will offer an insight into why summer sea ice is melting at rate that is alarming experts.Variability and changes of Arctic sea ice thickness distribution under different AO/DA states
A. Oikkonen, J. Haapala. Cryosphere (2011) 5(1):131-167. In this paper, the authors determine the ice thickness distributions, mean and modal thicknesses, and their regional and seasonal variability in the Arctic under different large scale atmospheric circulation modes.Vertical flux of particulate matter in an Arctic fjord: The case of lack of the sea-ice cover in Adventfjorden 2006-2007
M. Zajaczkowski et al. Polar Biology (2009) 33(2):223-239. Seasonal dynamics of suspended minerals, organic matter, particulate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chlorophyll, and their vertical fluxes were studied in a small Arctic fjord (Adventfjorden, Spitsbergen) from November 2006 to October 2007.Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming
R.G. Graversen et al. Nature (2007) 451:53-56. Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades, a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. Here, the authors examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. They find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface.Warming North Atlantic water tied to heating Arctic
ScienceDaily, January 28, 2011. The temperatures of North Atlantic Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean adjacent to Greenland—the warmest water in at least 2,000 years—are likely related to the amplification of global warming in the Arctic, says a new international study involving the University of Colorado Boulder.Will global warming cause more extreme weather?
NPR's "Weekend Edition Saturday," July 23, 2011. As the country continues to bake in record-breaking heat, and in this year of weather extremes, people want to know: Is this all part of an ominous climate change? Host Scott Simon speaks with NOAA meteorologist Martin Hoerling about the situation.Winds from Siberia reduce Arctic sea ice cover, Norwegian researchers find
ScienceDaily, April 28, 2010. The ice cover in the Arctic has decreased dramatically in recent years. Norwegian researchers have discovered that changes in air circulation patterns create winds that push away the ice.Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters
Y. Kaspi, T. Schneider. Nature (2011) 471(7340):621-624. In winter, northeastern North America and northeastern Asia are both colder than other regions at similar latitudes. Here the authors show that this anomalous winter cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric waves—nearly stationary Rossby waves—generated by heating of the atmosphere over warm ocean waters.Historical Climate and Weather
Ancient permafrost and a future, warmer Arctic
D.G. Froese et al. Science (2008) 321(5896):1648. Authors report the presence of relict ground ice in subarctic Canada that is greater than 700,000 years old, with the implication that ground ice in this area has survived past interglaciations that were warmer and of longer duration than the present interglaciation.The Anthropocene: Are humans now overwhelming the great forces of nature?
W. Steffen et al. Ambio (2007) 36(8):614-621. Global warming and many other human-driven changes to the environment are raising concerns about the future of Earth's environment and its ability to provide the services required to maintain viable human civilizations. The consequences of this unintended experiment of humankind on its own life support system are hotly debated, but worst-case scenarios paint a gloomy picture for the future of contemporary societies.Arctic climate: Past and present
Chapter 2 (pages 21-60) of ACIA Scientific Report, Cambridge University Press, 2005. The sensitivities of snow and ice regimes to small temperature increases and of cold oceans to small changes in salinity are processes that could contribute to unusually large and rapid climate change in the Arctic. (PDF 3.24 MB)Arctic paleoclimate synthesis thematic papers
J.J. Fitzpatrick et al. Quaternary Science Reviews (2010) 29(15-16):1674-1678. This issue of QSR contains five papers that were originally written as the technical chapters for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 1.2, Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes. The thematic papers here reintroduce the technical language of climate change and update the original SAP content with more recent information derived from literature published after the report was finalized for publication in 2008.Are summers getting warmer up North?
CBC News, September 21, 1961. "One thing we have found is that it appears the summers have been slightly warmer in the past 20 to 30 years. This is rather a small difference, but it seems to be significant," says Dr. Geoffrey Hattersley-Smith in this 1961 radio clip. The scientist is being interviewed about his recent research trip to Ellesmere Island in Canada's Arctic, where his team conducted radiation tests. This is one of the earliest clips in the CBC Archives mentioning a subject that will become a worldwide fixation four decades later.A century of climate change for Fairbanks, Alaska
G. Wendler, M. Shulski. Arctic (2009) 62(3):295-300. The climate of Fairbanks was analyzed for a century ending in 2006. The temperature has increased by 1.4°C, almost twice the global increase, which is expected as a result of the polar amplification in temperature change.Climate change in Eurasian Arctic shelf seas: Centennial ice cover observations
I.E. Frolov et al., Springer, 2009. The major goals of this 166-page book are to describe the state and variability of the Arctic sea ice cover, to demonstrate methods for sea ice studies, and to describe and test hypotheses that will allow us to understand and predict future Arctic sea ice conditions. The authors synthesize data collected and experience gained by Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) scientists during their more than 85 years of Arctic exploration.The climate of Alaska
M. Shulski, G. Wendler. Alaska Climate Research Center, 2007. This 216-page book provides an updated climatology of Alaska, illustrating the diverse range and unique climate features of the 49th state. It contains a narrative discussion along with full-color photos, maps, tables and charts for various climatological parameters. The concepts are clearly presented and easily understood by nonspecialists.Climate scientists dig deep into Greenland's ice
PBS NewsHour, October 19, 2009. To study the history of climate change, scientists from 14 nations gathered in the far north end of Greenland to drill into the 1.6-mile core of solid ice. Climatologist and Climate Central correspondent Heidi Cullen looks at the way scientists are looking at the past to study the future of climate change.The early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic—A possible mechanism
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Report No. 345, 2003. Four possible mechanisms, individually or in combination, contributed to the early 20th-century Arctic warming: anthropogenic effects, increased solar irradiation, reduced volcanic activity, and internal variability of the climate system. It seems unlikely that anthropogenic forcing on its own could have caused the warming. (PDF 2.06 MB)Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming
E.S. Euskirchen et al. Global Change Biology (2007) 13(11):2425-2438. The warming associated with changes in snow cover in northern high-latitude terrestrial regions represents an important energy feedback to the climate system. Here, the authors simulate snow cover–climate feedbacks (i.e., changes in snow cover on atmospheric heating) across the pan-arctic over two distinct warming periods during the 20th century, 1910-1940 and 1970-2000.Enhanced modern heat transfer to the Arctic by warm Atlantic water
R.F. Spielhagen et al. Science (2011) 331(6016):450-453. The authors present a multidecadal-scale record of ocean temperature variations during the past 2000 years, derived from marine sediments off Western Svalbard (79°N). They find that early-21st-century temperatures of Atlantic water entering the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic amplification of global warming.Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions
L.D. Hinzman et al. Climatic Change (2005) 72(3):251-298. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large-scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.The fate of Greenland: Lessons from abrupt climate change
P. Conkling et al., MIT Press, 2011, 224 pages. Ninety percent of Greenland is covered by ice. This book documents Greenland's warming with color photographs and investigates Greenland's climate history for clues about what happens when climate change is abrupt rather than gradual.Historical analysis of sea ice conditions in M'Clintock Channel and the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut: Implications for ringed seal and polar bear habitat
D.G. Barber, J. Iacozza. Arctic (2004) 57(1):1-14. Sea ice is an integral part of the marine ecosystem in the Arctic and important habitat for ringed seals and polar bears. To study changes in sea ice characteristics indicative of ringed seal habitat (and linked, through predator/prey relationships, to polar bear habitat), this study examined historical changes in sea ice concentration and type within M'Clintock Channel and the Gulf of Boothia, two regions of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, during 1980-2000.How do ice cores allow researchers to see climate change?
Punctuated Equilibrium, guardian.co.uk, May 12, 2011. Ice sheet layers can be read like the pages of a book—if you know the language. In this video, we see how scientists are deciphering the history of Earth's climate from ice cores taken from western Antarctica.Ice cores: Archives of past climate
Punctuated Equilibrium, guardian.co.uk, June 10, 2011. Ice sheets are analogous to miles-thick layer cakes of snow that have been compressed under their own weight. Each year, snow falls on the surface of an ice sheet, and over time these layers become buried and are crushed into ice. At the depth where compressed snow transitions fully to ice, the little spaces of air between the grains are sealed off. As if sealed in a bottle made of ice, this ancient air still exists.Ice sheets and the ice-core record of climate change
K.M. Cuffey, E.J. Brook. International Geophysics (2000) 72:459-497. Chapter 18 of a special volume titled Earth System Science—From Biogeochemical Cycles to Global Change.Impacts of large-scale atmospheric-ocean variability on Alaskan fire season severity
P.A. Duffy et al. Ecological Applications (2005) 15(4):1317-1330. Records from the past 53 years reveal high variability in the annual area burned in Alaska and corresponding high variability in weather occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here the authors use multiple linear regression (MLR) to systematically explore the relationships between weather variables and the annual area burned in Alaska.Is the climate warming or cooling?
D.R. Easterling, M.F. Wehner. Geophysical Research Letters (2009) doi:10.1029/2009GL037810. Numerous websites, blogs and articles in the media have claimed that the climate is no longer warming, and is now cooling. Here, the authors show that the climate over the 21st century can, and likely will, produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer-term warming.Old weather data aids climate science—one ship at a time
J. Pinkowski, OnEarth, June 7, 2011. By trawling through World War I-era naval logs for forgotten storms, citizen scientists help make global climate models more precise.Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes
A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, January 2009. This is part of a series of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAPs) aimed at providing current assessments of climate change science to inform public debate, policy, and operational decisions. (PDF 17.62 MB)Profile: Lonnie Thompson
PBS' NOVA ScienceNOW, July 28, 2009. For more than 30 years, glaciologist Lonnie Thompson has been collecting ice. Why? Because cores of ice from high mountain glaciers contain significant data about past climate change, which can be useful in helping us combat current climate change. All told, Thompson has worked in 15 countries on five continents, helping to build an invaluable archive dating back 700,000 years.Recent changes in the climate: Natural or forced by human activity?
W. Karlén. Ambio (2008) 37(sp14):483-488. A distinction between trends and variability in climate is only possible if long-term records can be studied. Greenland ice core data yield well-dated information about climate over an extended period that, seen together with other data series, indicates that large, probably global scale changes have occurred at numerous times in the past. The warming during the past 100 years is not likely to be unique.Ship logs help scientists trace oceans' warming
NPR's "Morning Edition," May 6, 2010. Most of global warming has actually been warming of the oceans, and it's been quite a challenge to document that change over the past century. But starting back in 1993, Sydney Levitus headed up an international effort to gather whatever historical records he could find.Soot influences Arctic climate
BBC News, August 10, 2007. Measurements from ice cores suggest that soot released by industrial activities has influenced climate change in the Arctic.Spatial and temporal temperature change in the Arctic basin since 1994: Assessment of localized short-term data sets
K.R. Mountain et al. Polar Geography (2001) 25(1):1-21. The daily averaged temperatures from 1994 to the year 2000 for the high Arctic stations of Alert, Resolute, Eureka, and Thule Air Base are investigated to assess both regional temperature variability and temperature trends.Sunderland experts study 18th-century Arctic voyages
BBC News, December 23, 2010. A team from Sunderland University will study records kept by explorers, whalers, and merchants during trips that took place up to 260 years ago. They want to see if the logs provide clues about the ice levels in the area at that time.Time to spend more money preparing for colder winters?
P. Eden, BBC News, December 20, 2010. The last three winters have appeared to be cold and snowy only in comparison with the relatively mild and snow-free winters of the last two decades. Were we able to pick them up and transplant them into, say, the 1940s or 1950s or 1960s they would not have looked out of place at all.Twentieth-century variations in temperature and precipitation in the Nordic Arctic
E.J. Førland et al. Polar Record (2002) 38(206):203-210. In a joint Nordic effort, a high-quality climate data set for the Nordic Arctic is established. The data set consists of monthly values from 20 stations in Greenland, Iceland, the Faeroes, and the Norwegian Arctic. Ten climate elements are included, and most of the series covers the period 1890-2000.